26 June 2007

A Million Vacations

is what I've got in mind.


I'm away until roughly July 9th, at which point the entire NHL landscape will have changed. A few notes, both major and minor:

  • Apparently - FINALLY - the salary cap figure will be agreed upon today or tomorrow at the NHLPA executive board meeting - it could go as high as USD$50 million. Last year's cap was at USD$44 million. Prepare for the annual round of logic-defying head-shaking contracts. I expect to get a number of mind-blowing text messages on Sunday when free-agent season begins.
  • On the (very) light side, Wayne Gretzky is getting into the wine business in Southern Ontario despite admitting that he doesn't "know a whole lot about wine." Rumours that he plans on hiring Jeremy Roenick, Owen Nolan, and Marty McSorley to pick grapes are unfounded.

Please follow the critical hockey links in the right-hand column below to keep tabs on all goings-on over the next few weeks.

22 June 2007

Road Apples NHL mock draft - 2007

Dispensing with the commentary, and ripe for abuse by probably 8:30 EDT tonight, I've thrown my hat in the ring - here is my 1st round mock NHL draft for 2007 in simple list form (top 5 selections / justifications can be found in the 5 previous posts here):

1. Chicago Kyle Turris
2. Philadelphia Jakub Voracek
3. Phoenix Patrick Kane
4. Los Angeles Karl Alzner
5. Washington Alexei Chereponov
6. Edmonton Sam Gagner
7. Columbus James Van Riemsdyk
8. Boston Angelo Esposito
9. St. Louis Lars Eller
10. Florida Keaton Ellerby
11. Carolina Zach Hamill
12. Montreal Mikael Backlund
13. Toronto Logan Couture
14. Colorado Ryan McDonagh
15. Edmonton (from NYI) Tommy Cross
16. Anaheim (from TB) Stefen Legein
17. NY Rangers David Perron
18. Calgary Brandon Sutter
19. Minnesota Dana Tyrell
20. Pittsburgh Brett MacLean
21. Phoenix (from DAL) Luca Cunti
22. Montreal (from SJ) Joakim Andersson
23. Philadelphia (from NAS) Nicholas Petrecki
24. St. Louis (from ATL) Max Pacioretty
25. Vancouver Maxim Mayorov
26. St. Louis (from NJ via SJ) Oscar Moller
27. Detroit Kevin Shattenkirk
28. Washington (from BUF) Colton Gillies
29. Ottawa Jonathon Blum
30. Edmonton (from ANA) Akim Aliu


In the mock draft pool I'm in, we have different values for the top 5: exact slot gets you 2 points, +/- 1 gets you 1 point. From pick 6 through 30, exact slot gets you 3 points, +/- 1 = 2, +/- 2 = 1. We'll see if any of us can crack 10.

20 June 2007

NHL draft talk - #5 pick: Washington Capitals

Full text/summary of my mock top 5 can be found on SportsGrumblings.com (signin required but they mercifully don't put you on any mailing lists)

-------------------------------------------------------------------

After yet another down year, the Capitals as they present are constructed - unlike a franchise like, say, Los Angeles - don't exactly have an impending crop of young players at the NHL level ready to help make the team take that next step towards respectability. Last year's fourth overall pick - center Nicklas Backstrom - returned to Europe in 2006 rather than immediately sign with Washington (although he was
just signed by the Capitals to a three-year entry-level deal). Talented forward prospects like Eric Fehr and Francois Bouchard (QMJHL scoring leader with 125 points) should still be expected to be at least a year or two away from not only earning a full-time spot with the big club but having any sort of positive impact.

In terms of goaltending, the team drafted two in the top 34 picks last year in prospects Michal Neuvirth (2nd round, 2006) and Semen Varlamov (1st round, 2006) and both are developing nicely: Neuvirth led his Plymouth Whalers to their first OHL title and Memorial Cup last month, sporting a .932 save percentage over 18 playoff games; Varlamov excelled at this year's World Junior Championships (WJC) and is generally considered the top Russian goaltending prospect, putting up a 2.12 GAA in the Russian Super League. There should be good competition in coming years once longtime incumbent Olaf Kolzig finally retires.

In other words, barring a rash of trades and free agent signings this summer, the Capitals will still be building for a few years down the road (and have Alexander Ovechkin's restricted free agency status to look forward to after this coming season). Assuming that Washington's brass feels the same way, trying to figure out the direction of their first round selection is intriguing. Finding that one specific position in the Capitals' organization that they need to upgrade is difficult, and at the number five selection they could reasonably be expected to take whom they deem is the most-talented player available. If I'm going by my biased assumptions of the first four selections, James VanRiemsdyk and Jakub Voracek won't be available (if they are, Washington would be well off selecting either one)

The Capitals could continue their European invasion by drafting Alexei Cherepanov, the top-ranked European in the draft. Cherepanov will help eventually give the Capitals an outstanding top 4 with Alexander Ovechkin, Niklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin - perhaps as early as next season. Cherepanov was the top forward at the WJC this past winter and scouts rave about his offensive presence and creativity. The knock is that he can be maddeningly inconsistent and disappears at times. By drafting the Russian and putting fellow countryman Ovechkin at his side, the Capitals may be able to take this high-risk / high- reward player and help transform their club into an offensive dynamo over the next few seasons.

19 June 2007

NHL draft - #4 pick: Los Angeles

At pick #4 we have the Los Angeles Kings. Despite bottoming out last year - winning only 27 games (better than only Philadelphia) and missing the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season - the Kings have a burgeoning stable of young talent and are not far off from making a run at a playoff spot. With young offensive talents such as Mike Cammalleri, Alexander Frolov, Dustin Brown, a future superstar in Anze Kopitar, and then Patrick O'Sullivan and Trevor Lewis on the horizon, within a few years the Kings could be one of the better offensive teams in the league. As was written here on this site and elsewhere by Kings fans, goaltending was the main reason the Kings went into the tank so early last season, with Dan Cloutier suffering the wrath of fans and feeling the heat of red lights on the back of his jersey until his season mercifully ended with hip surgery. Goaltending will have to be a temporary transitional phase for Los Angeles until top-flight prospect Jonathan Bernier of the QMJHL champion Lewiston Maineiacs is ready to turn pro. Make no mistake: Bernier is the Kings' goalie of the not-so-distant future, so the Kings will be looking for a skater at the four slot on Friday.

Where the Kings could and should continue to build is on the blueline. Veterans Rob Blake and Lubomir Visnovsky provide a decent-enough one-two, but with one year left on both of their deals and Blake pulling in USD$6 million, the Kings will likely either try to deal Blake this season or simply not re-sign him when he reaches the end of his contract. Highly regarded youngster Jack Johnson - acquired from Carolina in a pre-season fleecing last September - will start the year with a full-time job in L.A. but will likely undergo growing pains for a few seasons. The Kings' greatest need for depth is at defence and at the number four position it is highly likely that either of Karl Alzner or Keaton Ellerby will be available.

The thinking here is that Alzner of the Calgary Hitmen would be the best fit for the Kings. Even though scouts agree that he could take more risks offensively, what Los Angeles needs is to take care of play in their own zone and develop a quality three-zone system to be a contender when their young talent begins to peak a few years from now. NHL Central Scouting writes that Alzner "...is calm under pressure and composed with the puck. Has good positioning and reads the play well." Exactly the kind of player who GM Dean Lombardi could see playing 24-27 minutes every night in front of Jonathan Bernier three or four years from now.

17 June 2007

NHL draft - #3 pick: Phoenix

As a reminder, I'm not intending these to be predictions on who will be selected - simply evaluating who I would take if I were in each club's position, and basing subsequent picks on my previous phantom picks. In other words, it's complete bullshit. :-D

Ahh, Phoenix. So much to pick on, so little time...but in this article we'll keep a focused criticism of the franchise on their drafting legacy. Of the 12 first-round picks they've made in their short and terrible 11-year history (has it been that long already?), the only one to become a star is Daniel Briere, who quite obviously has not been plying his trade for the Coyotes of late. Defensive forward Fredrik Sjostrom (#11, 2001 draft) has held a steady job for the 'Yotes over the past three seasons, but there has been no homegrown star power in the desert. To be fair, we can't fairly analyze recent draft history, which may eventually help boost their drafting reputation. They just signed their high-scoring 2005 first rounder Martin Hanzel to an entry level deal. Their highest pick - Blake Wheeler, 5th overall in 2004 - is currently excelling at the University of Minnesota. Wheeler's high school teammate Peter Mueller (#8, 2006 draft) scored 78 points for Everett (WHL) last year and has represented the USA at the past two World Junior Championships.

Yet there's no denying that this franchise's cycle of mediocrity has their roots in poor drafting. A team must expect the occasional first-round bust but Phoenix has taken that to extremes by almost literally never having success in a decade of drafts. Awful drafting has doomed the Phoenix organization to repeated mediocre finishes, only once finishing as high as second in their division. Here's an indictment of the entire organization: outside of Daniel Briere, never (since 1996) has the franchise drafted a single player who has scored 20 goals in an NHL season (the only one close being Trevor Letowski in 2000). Phoenix needs a lot, but what could help them take a big step forward both on the ice and at the gate would be an offensive dynamo.


The best fit for the Coyotes would be London Knights first-year sensation Patrick Kane. Although the chances of him still being available at the #3 slot are fairly slim, it wouldn't be unprecedented for a highly-acclaimed and odds-on favourite to go #1 to slip to the third spot - in 2002 Jay Bouwmeester was expected by many all season to be the top pick but on draft day he slipped to third, much to his surprise.

Although Phoenix is still far off from being a serious competitor, Kane's offensive wizardry is exactly what the Coyotes need to start them on the road back to respectability. Phoenix must make the hard decision to avoid ridiculous and backward-thinking signings of veterans and focus on a 3-5 year plan on making this team ready to challenge for the cup by the end of the decade. Kane could immediately be the best forward on the team by mid-season, with only Shane Doan able to challenge for that post. In the likely event that Kane is not available at the third spot, the Coyotes will likely take whomever is left of Kyle Turris and James vanRiemsdyk.

14 June 2007

NHL draft - #2 pick: Philadelphia

As a reminder, I'm not intending these to be predictions on who will be selected - simply evaluating who I would take if I were in each club's position, and basing subsequent picks on my previous phantom picks. In other words, it's complete bullshit. :-D


Coming off a shockingly disastrous season - only one year removed from finishing with 100 points - the Philadelphia Flyers may not be as bad-off as other teams in the top (actually, bottom) 5. Anything good that developed in the first post-lockout season completely unraveled last season, as promising second-year players like Jeff Carter and Mike Richards suffered through the sophomore jinx, both missing extensive time with injuries. Goaltending was a disaster for the Flyers as neither Antero Niittymaki nor Robert Esche provided support behind what was frankly a terribly immobile defence. The late-season trade with Buffalo that gained them veteran Martin Biron (whom they subsequently signed to a 2-year deal) shored up the goaltending, although Biron isn't the kind of keeper who can carry a bad team.

They own the 2nd-overall pick next week, and will be able to claim a top talent no matter what...although defence is where they need the most help, and this draft is definitely weighted towards offensive talent, at least at the top end. Gaining Braydon Coburn at the trading deadline for Alexei Zhitnik was an absolute steal, but there is still a need for a more veteran presence (Darien Hatcher doesn't count) on the blueline. Regardless, I'd be a little surprised if the Flyers took Karl Alzner or Keaton Ellerby (who, although is only listed at 187 lbs. stands at a towering 6'4") when there are still elite-level forwards available - even though I could see the physical Ellerby being a fan favourite.

I'm going to assume that Philadelphia will be aggressive and successful in signing one of the better unrestricted free agent centers on the market within the next few weeks - they have just over USD$30 million committed to the cap next season with only a few potentially integral free agents to deal with. Therefore drafting someone who may be just a bit more of a long-term solution would be more palatable with a veteran like Daniel Briere or Scott Gomez centering their top line for the next four years.

UPDATE - 18JUNE: After the trade-and-sign with Nashville to obtain Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen, the Flyers appear to stand at just over USD$42 million for next season, which certainly stands to limit much more off-season spending.

Patrick Kane has rightfully earned a lot of praise for his fantastic first season in the OHL for London, but his 5'9" frame doesn't exactly fit into how the Flyers have historically built their roster. With other sizeable forwards like Mike Knuble, Jeff Carter, Scottie Upshall, and RJ Umberger, I see Philadelphia steering more towards James VanRiemsdyk but I personally like the idea of them taking Halifax's Jakub Voracek. Voracek is ranked as the #7 prospect by Central Scouting but his showing after one year in the QMJHL (having arrived from the Czech Republic speaking no English) was nothing short of dominant in every way, with 86 points in 59 games and adding 24 in just 12 playoff games. Voracek is ready to make the next step and join a Philadelphia organization that hopes to rebound from the worst season in their history.

NHL draft talk - #1 pick: Chicago Blackhawks

Tonight marks the symbolic end to the 2006-07 NHL season with the annual awards show, likely to be marked with terrible puns, bad suits, and shifting empty seats. But starting tomorrow morning the 2007-08 season begins, with a leadup to next Friday's first round of the NHL Entry Draft. As of now, the first five picks will go to:

1. Chicago
2. Philadelphia
3. Phoenix
4. Los Angeles
5. Washington

Predicting who will go where is perhaps a fool's game, but a little semi-mindless speculation and analysis is always enjoyable. I'm not intending these to be predictions, because so much goes on behind the scenes so to speak on which teams will draft which players, so I'll informally spend a little time on the top 5 clubs and slowly go down the list and evaluate who I would take if I were in each club's position.

Starting off with number one: The Chicago Blackhawks.

The Chicago Blackhawks hold the first selection in the draft for the first time in their history (likely shocking to those only familiar with their latest decade of failure, having made the playoffs only once since 1997) and GM Dale Tallon has implied that the choice is between forwards Patrick Kane, Kyle Turris, and James van Riemsdyk (barring any sort of trade, of course).

It sounds like Tallon may prefer the two-way physical play of Turris and Van Riemsdyk, as their size (6'0" and 6'3" respectively) gives them the advantage over the 5'9" Kane, but Kane is the most-likely to turn pro next season, which could be beneficial to getting fans excited about the Hawks again. But the Hawks have to be patient and continue their slow but emerging re-building process - if Jonathan Toews and Jack Skille progress as expected they should help provide Chicago with a fearsome combination not seen since the days of Jeremy Roenick and Steve Larmer. If Tallon believes Kyle Turris - who is slated to play at the University of Wisconsin this fall - will be their #1 center for a decade starting three years from now that's the pick he needs to make: Kyle Turris at number one.

CSS final rankings

Top North American Skaters

Top International Skaters

Top North American Goalies

Top International Goalies

(note: all are links to .pdf files - Adobe Reader required)

Iron Mike is back

Mike Keenan is back to unite a new team in hatred against him - reports out of Calgary are that he will be the new coach of the Flames next season. Enough has been written about the swath of personal destruction that Keenan has left in his wake, but he has had considerable success amidst the turmoil. And truth be told, Calgary could use something to wake them from their stupor - they have the talent to win the Cup but an inexplicable home/road split during the season and playoffs spelled strangely predictable doom.

The relationship between Keenan and Jarome Iginla will be especially interesting. Much more to come, I'm sure.

12 June 2007

Bloggers beware

Neate Sager runs an excellent blog in Canada called Out of Left Field (see right-hand sidebar); he covers all aspects of virtually every sport in Canada (I'm particularly partial to his junior hockey leanings in the winter).

Sager is being sued for CAD$2 million by Steelback Brewery owner Frank D'Angelo for comments Sager made on his blog that supposedly "damaged his reputation." D'Angelo at one point last year was bidding to buy the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Whether you care or not, Sager not only runs this blog but does a lot of work in the "traditional" media fields as well so he could hardly be represented as some lone hack working out of his mother's basement (not...that there's anything wrong with that). Much to Sager's credit, he has taken and continues to take the high road in this affair. Best of luck to Neate in his efforts to get the case dropped.

07 June 2007

Anaheim Ducks - your Stanley Cup Champions

Really has a ring to it, eh?

various observations/notes:

The Ducks should've worn this abomination last night:



Gary Bettman - as always - couldn't resist a snarky opportunity to stick a little needle to his critics when on the red carpet (I realize I'm old-fashioned when I pine for the days where there were no on-ice wireless mics and announcements, but I always prefer to have an event or moment sell itself. Welcome to the 21st century, I suppose...) he rhetorically, arrogantly, and self-servingly stated to the crowd "well, I guess hockey is doing pretty well in California!" knowing that his ever-growing legion of critics has been on him harder than ever regarding ill-advised markets, etc. Bettman loves to be able to point out the last three Cup champions: Tampa Bay, Carolina, Anaheim.


Hard not to love the play of Scott Niedermayer, a Hall-of-Fame mortal lock. But I thought the Conn Smythe could - and should - have gone to Andy MacDonald, who I'm guessing a lot of fans had very little idea about before this series. He's a game-breaker and was a constant threat during the entire series.


Steve Smith now has historical company in one Chris Phillips:




Overall, Ottawa played a rather pitiful series. Sure they had their moments where they looked like the team that steamrolled through the second half of the season and through the first three rounds of the playoffs - much of last night's second period for instance. But there were many who simply failed to compete - none more in my book than Jason Spezza. Spezza never showed any creativity with the puck and repeatedly failed on the defensive end of his game. Aside from countless turnovers his listless and frankly contact-avoidance style of play left his teammates (mostly Daniel Alfredsson, one of the few Sens forwards who brought game) in the lurch. Spezza registered just one shot over the final three games and overall in the five-game series registered just two points - both second assists.

Although he was not the reason they lost, Ray Emery looked shaky throughout. Despite a few highlight-reel saves, his positioning is just awful and he has no idea how to control a rebound. From my observing him, he also seems to lose sight of the puck much more often than other goalies. I became a believer in Emery this year after his playoff flame-out last season. However, after this performance, Emery will have to improve if the Sens hope to repeat next season as Eastern Conference champions.


At any rate, congratulations to the Ducks. In no way were they a fluke champion, they either held the West lead or were within a few points of it all season, and crushed the high-scoring Senators team in five. With the young core of talent in Anaheim, they have a great chance at either repeating or getting back to the finals within the next few years.

And if Teemu Selanne decides to go out Lanny McDonald style and retire, what a great ride it has been.
From his never-to-be-duplicated 76-goal rookie season in Winnipeg to his post-lockout resurgence in Anaheim (88 goals in the past two seasons) over the past 14 years fans have been treated to one of the all-time greats. Congratulations to one of the nicest and classiest athletes to ever play in North America.





The NHL draft begins two weeks from tomorrow night.

06 June 2007

OHL franchise move official

Long rumoured and expected, it is now official: beginning this coming season the Toronto St. Michael's Majors will move to Mississauga while the Ice Dogs formally relocate to the Niagara region, temporarily (at least) to be housed in St. Catherines:

Majors on the Move

Tuesday Jun 5, 2007

Toronto, Ont. (Tuesday, June 5, 2007) — It is now official; the St. Michael’s Majors are relocating to Mississauga for the upcoming season. This situation comes as a result of the transfer of the Mississauga IceDogs to the city of St. Catharines, which has been approved by the Ontario Hockey League’s Board of Governors.

The Majors will now be known as the Mississauga St. Michael’s Majors and will continue to possess a strong connection to St. Michael’s College School.

The Majors web site address (www.stmichaelsmajors.com) will not change. Stay tuned to that site as the team will be releasing their 2007-08 schedule in the near future, as well as ticket packages, community programs and the many exciting initiatives planned for the upcoming season.

We'll miss visiting the 1000-capacity St. Mike's Arena, as old-school an arena as you'll find anywhere.

05 June 2007

one more week off

Since I'm enjoying just watching the finals without critiquing, taking notes, or studying shift charts and extended stats, I'll stay on my hiatus through the end of the season, which could be as early as Wednesday night or at the latest next Monday.

I'll have some sort of a wrap-up next week and will pick up the posts as the month goes on - "summer season" starts this month with the draft in Columbus (starting on a Friday night this year) on June 22nd, and the free-agent frenzy to begin less than two weeks after that.

Starting at the end of this month, this will be the most important information to have handy as teams begin to restructure for next season.

29 May 2007

still on hiatus

(...so much for my finals preview...)

Still on self-imposed writing hiatus from here and SportsGrumblings - the last two months have been crazy and I need to cut back for a short while - I also have a need to simply be a fan and not analyze everything, and just enjoy the Finals. Find analysis here or here. I'll chime back in more often at the end of the season, just when the draft and free-agent frenzy are picking up.

Hoping for at least six games from this series, last night was a decent-enough start.

24 May 2007

news/notes

Taking a much-needed break this week - I'll be on board for the finals starting on Monday night, and I'll have a quick preview up by that afternoon.

I'm glad I stuck with game 6 the other night, as the last 10 minutes were riveting to see whether Detroit could pull out that last tying goal.

Potentially the biggest news today though is that Research In Motion's Jim Balsillie has reached an agreement to purchase the Nashville Predators:

NASHVILLE, Tenn. – Canadian billionaire Jim Balsillie might get his NHL team after all.

The co-CEO of Waterloo, Ont.-based Blackberry makers Research in Motion Ltd., has reached a tentative agreement to buy the Nashville Predators, a source close the negotiations confirmed to the Canadian Press on Wednesday. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

The deal would have to be investigated and approved by the NHL's board of governors before it became official.


Despite the inevitable protests from the offices of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres, the Niagara Frontier is very likely to have a new team within a year or two and that should be an absolutely fantastic thing for hockey and the NHL. I only hope the league finds a way to put the team into the Northeast Division, making the Leafs/Sabres/? (St. Pats? Fincups? Blackberries? - no I'm kidding, please no.) develop a fantastic 3-team regional rivalry.

Edits:

with thanks to James Mirtle, RIM recently (and quietly) made a land purchase in Cambridge, about an hour west of Toronto via the 401.

here's some excellent perspective from Stephen Brunt at the Globe and Mail.

21 May 2007

congrats to Ottawa

I didn't have time (ok, or the will) to post this weekend. A tight series of weird games marked by peaks of end-to-end action separated by long stretches of inconsistent hockey. By both teams.

For a cheap and easy review...Ottawa's best outplayed Buffalo's best, and Ray Emery was rarely tested. Depending on your point-of-view, that could either be offensive ineptitude on Buffalo's part or a fantastic defensive scheme on Ottawa's part. I'm tending to steer more towards Ottawa's play with a side-dash of Buffalo playing tight.

It is easy to point out that Ottawa's best players were better than Buffalo's best players. The Sens' Pizza Line ("they deliver") of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley were markedly more effective than Daniel Briere, Chris Drury, and Thomas Vanek, not to mention Jason Pominville (despite meager offensive contributions, he did perform solid work in his own zone defensively) and Maxim Afinogenov.

As for flaws in Buffalo's game, the power-play is the obvious first answer as well as the correct one. Enough has been written about just how putrid it was, and not much effort would need to be made to argue that even an average man advantage unit in this series could have reversed the outcome. Although this was primarily Buffalo's problem, as their power-play was sub-par all season long, credit must be given to Ottawa who refused to deviate from their game plan. The Senators were content to let the Sabres (attempt to) set up at the blueline - Buffalo repeatedly tried to make the perfect play yet didn't ever move the puck often or creatively enough to get anything in the way of quality chances.


I'm finding myself a bit spent in terms of hockey and especially analysis. I think I'll be taking this week to relax and actually watch what's left of the Western finals before sitting down to further analyze the Eastern Finals. I'll have a post or two before my inevitable Cup Finals preview here (and at SportsGrumblings.com).

17 May 2007

Slug heartbeat located

Just when Buffalo Sabres fans think they're out....they get pulled right back in again.

After a 3-2 victory in a game that most pundits would have expected the Sabres to fully roll over and die after their pitiful game 3 performance, it was Derek Roy getting the stunning first goal of the night nine seconds after the opening drop. The Sabres never trailed, although things certainly changed after they took a 3-0 lead midway through the second period and it looked like they were ready to romp.

Buffalo suddenly and inexplicably fell into their early-series defensive funk by carelessly turning the puck over in their own zone, leading to two quick Ottawa goals which brought the home crowd to life and seemed to suck the tenuous confidence out of the Sabres.

Hilights:


I'll dispense with the game recap, but this was another game that went far beyond the final score. Buffalo started to show some legs in the first half of the game - they weren't perfect, but they were orders of magnitude better than they'd been over the previous ~six periods. What would concern me from a Buffalo point of view, however, is their quick lapse back into the giveaway game followed by uncharacteristically conservative play (at least in terms of their regular season game). Turnovers are an accepted part of Buffalo's game, and have been for two seasons now, but when every game is now magnified (with everything at stake) and they are playing an opponent who is on top of their game, it becomes far more dangerous.

click for full-sized view:


Lindy Ruff clearly recognized how he was going to deal with any tenuous play early on when he decided to shoot his entire "4 rolling lines" game plan to hell - above is the official shift chart for game 4 and the late-game gaps are telling. Dmitri Kalinin had five shifts in the first period and saw the ice once again - with nine minutes were gone in the third. I think many Sabres' fans will be okay with that decision (4:23 total ice time) but how will that play out in game 5 (or beyond)? Is this a one-time thing or has Ruff's faith [in Kalinin] been completely shattered? If so, he'd be better off not dressing Kalinin and calling up Nathan Paetsch. Skating five (or less...see Spacek below...) defencemen in a playoff game isn't advisable for the team's long-term health - especially if they cannot lose another game.

Some other decisions by Ruff were also questionable:

1) Lack of faith in Jaroslav Spacek. I know a lot of fans are on him for his zero points this postseason, but a major reason for that is his limited ice-time. Spacek only got 8:22 last night with 22 seconds combined on special-teams. He played three shafts total after Ottawa's second goal of the night, essentially giving the Sabres four defencemen for the second half of the game - a likely reason for them being pinned in their own zone much of the third. Long term - I would look for this to be an offseason where Buffalo quietly tries to deal Spacek - Ruff's pattern of usage of him over the past few games is telling - this isn't the first time Spacek has seen pine in critical situations.

2) Too much faith in Brian Campbell. Campbell is an exciting player who, when carrying the puck, can make one think of the better offensive defencemen of the past 20 years. Unfortunately when he doesn't commit to a two-way game he can be a defensive liability. Campbell accounted for four of Buffalo's 10 official turnovers last night yet led all Sabres in ice-time by far with just under 30 minutes. I'm not sure what Ruff is trying to emphasize here - if he wants reliability, Campbell might not be your best bet. Is he that much more defensively responsible than Spacek? No chance. There must be an equalization of ice-time or every third period will be completely slanted towards Ryan Miller for the duration of this postseason.

Speaking of Miller - again he was fantastic tonight. I wish I had seen where it was written that Ray Emery was "outplaying" Miller, because that's a joke. Emery - on the rare occasions he's been tested - has been quite shaky (although he deserves credit for a handful of spectacular saves - it's the easy ones he often struggles with). Chris Drury's goal was a poor effort on Emery's part.

Other shift notes: Dainus Zubrus played four minutes and never returned after the three minute mark of the second. He may be hurt. Ales Kotalik was used sparingly as was Max Afinogenov, although Max put in another solid effort. The most sad/frustrating part from a Sabres' fan point-of-view is the continued dog-like play of Thomas Vanek. He is looking like he did last postseason and at this point the team would lose nothing by having him take a view from the Ted Darling Memorial Press Box Saturday afternoon.


So this game shows again how fragile momentum in hockey is, or a lead within a game or series. Pick any critical moment in the previous three games - e.g. game 2: Toni Lydman's crossbar shot goes in...and this series is tied going back to Buffalo. This is something the Sabres have to hold onto - they're still alive and have a chance. Something simple to remember in all the talk that will come of possibly coming back from an 0-3 deficit...it's not 0-3 anymore. "One game at a time" will continue to be the Sabres' mantra, and although the HSBC arena will be deafening on Saturday, the pressure will still be squarely on the Buffalo Sabres. That will most definitely change in the event of a Buffalo win...

A bit of relevant history: In the 1980 semifinals the Wales Trophy champion Buffalo Sabres faced the New York Islanders. The Sabres were favoured as conference champions and having finished 19 points ahead of the Isles. After a long nine-day layoff the Sabres began their series with New York and quickly found themselves down 0-3 but won the next two. They took a lead in game 6 before eventually collapsing and losing 5-2.

So it's back to Buffalo for a Saturday afternoon matinee. Two days off for the teams to regroup, perhaps heal up, and also consider possible lineup changes.

If nothing else....we may now have a series.

15 May 2007

Power outage

as published at SportsGrumblings.com

Hockey is defined as a sport - an athletic competition with participants in direct opposition to each other. This definition is incomplete, as incomplete as deriving the whys and hows of a game from the what of the simple final score. In hockey, the player is not only battling the opposition, they are battling themselves. No other sport turns as dramatically and drastically on a whim, a seemingly innocuous play, a bounce or whistle. And if "the tide" seems to be sweeping against you, in creeps a tendency to freeze - to overthink. And if you let your mind beat you, you will lose.

This Buffalo-Ottawa series has been a strange one, and one that is not fully told by looking at the final scores. Last week in a series preview I wrote:

…With a skilled and aggressive Ottawa defence, the Buffalo coaching staff simply must redefine their [team’s] approach on the power play or they will lose this series…

Little could I know how right that would be, as an 0-16 powerplay through three games is the single-biggest reason for Buffalo being on the verge of yet another heartbreaking end to a season. Nobody on either side of the fence could have predicted either team being up 3-0 at this point in the series, yet here sits Ottawa – one game away from their first trip to the Stanley Cup finals in the modern era, and with four tries to get it right. Taking it game-by-game:



Game 1: 5-2 Ottawa. Seemingly Senators domination, yes? Not so. The game's first two goals were scored by Ottawa on special teams before Buffalo stormed back to tie it, somewhat dominating the game at even-strength. The tie-breaking goal occurred midway through the third period, with two very late goals added on to pad the score. An early breakthrough on the powerplay for Buffalo could have easily changed the outcome, both by preventing the early Mike Fisher shorthanded goal and contributing just one of their own.


Game 2: 4-3 Ottawa, 2OT. By definition, this was the slimmest of victories and that with more than 40 minutes of extra time to decide it. A controversial disallowed goal for Thomas Vanek in the first angered Sabres' fans, as did a non-call on captain Daniel Alfredsson yet a last-second goal by Buffalo (assisted by a similar non-call on Brian Campbell) perhaps made the game appear closer than play indicated. After a dominant first period by Buffalo, the Senators took over the game for the second and third periods before the semi-miraculous Daniel Briere goal.


Game 3: 1-0 Ottawa. Again, a squeaker...on paper. Yet this time, the score lies again - to this viewer it was one of the most lopsided one-goal games in memory. And as faulty as memory can be, I also never recall seeing a power-play as anemic and pathetic as Buffalo's was in this game. It was not just the six powerplays without a tally (weak as that is) - it was the stunning path to such a number.

I defy someone to find a game where a team - at any level of hockey - had so little ability to even approach setting up a simple power play. The Sabres tried dumping the puck in…tried carrying it in…there was no success with either method. Normally reliable players such as Chris Drury played with obvious distress (zero shots on the night). Tim Connolly – whose late-season return many thought would revive a dull Buffalo powerplay- didn't exhibit his usual confidence with the puck, and turnovers were once again the meme for the talented Sabres. And although credit must be given to the Senators, the fault lies with Buffalo. For such an explosive team they had a poor powerplay all season, and it became worse in the postseason. Yet nothing could indicate the impending level of ineptitude shown over the past three games, culminating in Monday night's travesty.


In the end it really must come down to the mental game. The talent is there, in abundance. Even the lowest-of-the-low of the hockey world can set up a power play more than once or twice in nearly 12 minutes of 5-on-4 play. Call it the heavy weight of national expectations, or the burden of a title-starved region who once again will be teased with the promise of ultimate glory - bring out every phantom excuse - some or all may apply.

But unlike last season, this year the Buffalo Sabres don't have an on-ice excuse. They're fully healthy. They're loaded. They had home-ice advantage after ending with the best record in the regular season. What they don't appear to have is confidence, and in the truly dynamic sport of hockey if you lose your confidence - especially to a team every bit as talented as yours - you will have lost everything.

One of these things is not like the others...

a) Dave Lewis
b) Turk Broda
c) Curt Leskanic
d) Chris Drury


Which of these historical sports figures will very soon not belong with the other three?

14 May 2007

calling out The Captain...

(note: apologies for the ranting-aspect of this post. I tried to spend all day yesterday flushing all hockey knowledge from my brain and so catching up on ranting emails and websites about the Sabres/Sens series this morning has me back in a bad mood. Oh yeah - Happy Mothers Day!)

=====================================



Co-captain Daniel Briere has been called out at length this post-season; he's taken some cheap-shots in the media in my opinion. But nobody ever calls out the other captain, "Mr. Clutch" Chris Drury. He has been a non-factor in the first two games against the Senators, but all the Versus broadcast team can bring themselves to do late in the game is declare that this is "his time" or some such nonsense.

Drury is an outstanding and highly valuable player - as a Sabres fan I love having him on the team. Yet he is somehow blessed with getting the Derek Jeter treatment by the media and fans - potentially overstating positive contributions while ignoring failures. When this player has a bad game, and especially in the postseason, instead of focusing on that very fact and perhaps pointing out some specifics instead in late-game situations tired bromides are spewed forth about how every team should be lucky enough to have a player like Drury to lean on in tough times.

Is it so hard to actually critique a good player? How about something simple and obvious - things like...lack of strong forecheck / poor puck pursuit. missed defensive assignments in his own zone. Even an admittedly deceiving stat like shots taken - he only took 3 in four+ periods during game 2 - can at least begin to paint a picture here.


I'm not trying to be anti-Drury. It just galls me to see Briere take a whole host of shit that Drury doesn't get.

game 3 tonight in Ottawa, 7pm EDT. Sabres look to find some semblance of quality special teams play at either end of the rink, or the dream is dead.