congrats to Ottawa

I didn't have time (ok, or the will) to post this weekend. A tight series of weird games marked by peaks of end-to-end action separated by long stretches of inconsistent hockey. By both teams.

For a cheap and easy review...Ottawa's best outplayed Buffalo's best, and Ray Emery was rarely tested. Depending on your point-of-view, that could either be offensive ineptitude on Buffalo's part or a fantastic defensive scheme on Ottawa's part. I'm tending to steer more towards Ottawa's play with a side-dash of Buffalo playing tight.

It is easy to point out that Ottawa's best players were better than Buffalo's best players. The Sens' Pizza Line ("they deliver") of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley were markedly more effective than Daniel Briere, Chris Drury, and Thomas Vanek, not to mention Jason Pominville (despite meager offensive contributions, he did perform solid work in his own zone defensively) and Maxim Afinogenov.

As for flaws in Buffalo's game, the power-play is the obvious first answer as well as the correct one. Enough has been written about just how putrid it was, and not much effort would need to be made to argue that even an average man advantage unit in this series could have reversed the outcome. Although this was primarily Buffalo's problem, as their power-play was sub-par all season long, credit must be given to Ottawa who refused to deviate from their game plan. The Senators were content to let the Sabres (attempt to) set up at the blueline - Buffalo repeatedly tried to make the perfect play yet didn't ever move the puck often or creatively enough to get anything in the way of quality chances.


I'm finding myself a bit spent in terms of hockey and especially analysis. I think I'll be taking this week to relax and actually watch what's left of the Western finals before sitting down to further analyze the Eastern Finals. I'll have a post or two before my inevitable Cup Finals preview here (and at SportsGrumblings.com).

Slug heartbeat located

Just when Buffalo Sabres fans think they're out....they get pulled right back in again.

After a 3-2 victory in a game that most pundits would have expected the Sabres to fully roll over and die after their pitiful game 3 performance, it was Derek Roy getting the stunning first goal of the night nine seconds after the opening drop. The Sabres never trailed, although things certainly changed after they took a 3-0 lead midway through the second period and it looked like they were ready to romp.

Buffalo suddenly and inexplicably fell into their early-series defensive funk by carelessly turning the puck over in their own zone, leading to two quick Ottawa goals which brought the home crowd to life and seemed to suck the tenuous confidence out of the Sabres.

Hilights:


I'll dispense with the game recap, but this was another game that went far beyond the final score. Buffalo started to show some legs in the first half of the game - they weren't perfect, but they were orders of magnitude better than they'd been over the previous ~six periods. What would concern me from a Buffalo point of view, however, is their quick lapse back into the giveaway game followed by uncharacteristically conservative play (at least in terms of their regular season game). Turnovers are an accepted part of Buffalo's game, and have been for two seasons now, but when every game is now magnified (with everything at stake) and they are playing an opponent who is on top of their game, it becomes far more dangerous.

click for full-sized view:


Lindy Ruff clearly recognized how he was going to deal with any tenuous play early on when he decided to shoot his entire "4 rolling lines" game plan to hell - above is the official shift chart for game 4 and the late-game gaps are telling. Dmitri Kalinin had five shifts in the first period and saw the ice once again - with nine minutes were gone in the third. I think many Sabres' fans will be okay with that decision (4:23 total ice time) but how will that play out in game 5 (or beyond)? Is this a one-time thing or has Ruff's faith [in Kalinin] been completely shattered? If so, he'd be better off not dressing Kalinin and calling up Nathan Paetsch. Skating five (or less...see Spacek below...) defencemen in a playoff game isn't advisable for the team's long-term health - especially if they cannot lose another game.

Some other decisions by Ruff were also questionable:

1) Lack of faith in Jaroslav Spacek. I know a lot of fans are on him for his zero points this postseason, but a major reason for that is his limited ice-time. Spacek only got 8:22 last night with 22 seconds combined on special-teams. He played three shafts total after Ottawa's second goal of the night, essentially giving the Sabres four defencemen for the second half of the game - a likely reason for them being pinned in their own zone much of the third. Long term - I would look for this to be an offseason where Buffalo quietly tries to deal Spacek - Ruff's pattern of usage of him over the past few games is telling - this isn't the first time Spacek has seen pine in critical situations.

2) Too much faith in Brian Campbell. Campbell is an exciting player who, when carrying the puck, can make one think of the better offensive defencemen of the past 20 years. Unfortunately when he doesn't commit to a two-way game he can be a defensive liability. Campbell accounted for four of Buffalo's 10 official turnovers last night yet led all Sabres in ice-time by far with just under 30 minutes. I'm not sure what Ruff is trying to emphasize here - if he wants reliability, Campbell might not be your best bet. Is he that much more defensively responsible than Spacek? No chance. There must be an equalization of ice-time or every third period will be completely slanted towards Ryan Miller for the duration of this postseason.

Speaking of Miller - again he was fantastic tonight. I wish I had seen where it was written that Ray Emery was "outplaying" Miller, because that's a joke. Emery - on the rare occasions he's been tested - has been quite shaky (although he deserves credit for a handful of spectacular saves - it's the easy ones he often struggles with). Chris Drury's goal was a poor effort on Emery's part.

Other shift notes: Dainus Zubrus played four minutes and never returned after the three minute mark of the second. He may be hurt. Ales Kotalik was used sparingly as was Max Afinogenov, although Max put in another solid effort. The most sad/frustrating part from a Sabres' fan point-of-view is the continued dog-like play of Thomas Vanek. He is looking like he did last postseason and at this point the team would lose nothing by having him take a view from the Ted Darling Memorial Press Box Saturday afternoon.


So this game shows again how fragile momentum in hockey is, or a lead within a game or series. Pick any critical moment in the previous three games - e.g. game 2: Toni Lydman's crossbar shot goes in...and this series is tied going back to Buffalo. This is something the Sabres have to hold onto - they're still alive and have a chance. Something simple to remember in all the talk that will come of possibly coming back from an 0-3 deficit...it's not 0-3 anymore. "One game at a time" will continue to be the Sabres' mantra, and although the HSBC arena will be deafening on Saturday, the pressure will still be squarely on the Buffalo Sabres. That will most definitely change in the event of a Buffalo win...

A bit of relevant history: In the 1980 semifinals the Wales Trophy champion Buffalo Sabres faced the New York Islanders. The Sabres were favoured as conference champions and having finished 19 points ahead of the Isles. After a long nine-day layoff the Sabres began their series with New York and quickly found themselves down 0-3 but won the next two. They took a lead in game 6 before eventually collapsing and losing 5-2.

So it's back to Buffalo for a Saturday afternoon matinee. Two days off for the teams to regroup, perhaps heal up, and also consider possible lineup changes.

If nothing else....we may now have a series.

One of these things is not like the others...

a) Dave Lewis
b) Turk Broda
c) Curt Leskanic
d) Chris Drury


Which of these historical sports figures will very soon not belong with the other three?

Game 1 thoughts - BUF/OTT

Kind of a strange game last night. The Versus crew kept saying "what a game we have" and yes, it was tight for the first ~57 minutes. But it was not a smooth game, not very well played. From the Buffalo Sabres' point of view, I've never quite seen a frustrating pattern like that - they began to generate offence early with an excellent forecheck, good cycling... their 5-on-5 play was quite dominant at times. Outside of the Heatley-Spezza-Alfie line, Ottawa couldn't generate much of anything.

The Sabres quality work led to them drawing penalties....which cost them the game. Each Buffalo power play sucked all the life out of the team. The Sabres' powerplay actually generated far more chances for Ottawa, leading with the shorthanded goal by Mike Fisher. There could have been more.

Each PP was truly a momentum-killer for Buffalo - how can that be? 5-on-5 for the first ~30-40 minutes the Sabres were in control.

Neither team really brought their best - Ottawa was still relatively weak after their first line (who were fantastic, btw. Dany Heatley owns the Sabres).

Two players who stood out with their poor play for Buffalo:

Thomas Vanek. Merely invisible for the first 2 periods, switched over to awful by the third with some brutal giveaways.

Dmitri Kalinin. Kalinin has been a focal point for Buffalo fans' ire over the past few years - he's a player who when he is on can sometimes justify the faith that Lindy Ruff and Darcy Regier have put in him over the years. Last night was bit of the old "low-confidence" Dmitri. A bad pinch led to Fisher's goal...lazy coverage let Oleg Saprykin get free in the third for the game-winner on a deflection. Other times he just failed to make the right play on a breakout. He was flat-out terrible last night.

Chris Drury had a rough night, and I only bring him up because there has actually been some talk about him being a Conn Smythe candidate which I think is overstating his contributions to date. Obviously as a Buffalo fan I love Drury but he's the type of player that when he scores (and obviously his Friday night goal will become legendary in Western New York) he's the most clutch player in history. When he doesn't score he's "doing all the little things" (which means "we can't quite tell what he's doing out there but he never smiles so he must be working hard"). Last night he didn't really do either - Daniel Briere rightly gets called out when he's not producing (and he should be again for last night's rather dispirited performance), and Drury needs to be held to the same standard.

Overall there were a shocking number of lazy or stupid giveaways last night, and from everyone. The official scoresheet has Buffalo with 19 giveaways - it certainly seemed like more.

In the end - it was one game, and one in which both teams could find many faults. Had the Sabres played better (and had an average power play) they would have won. Had the Senators been able to bring more offence and play well 5-on-5, the game would have been over after two.

Game 2: Saturday night at 8pm EDT.

Eastern Conference finals preview: Buffalo Sabres (1) vs. Ottawa Senators (4)

2007 EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

#1 Buffalo vs. #4 Ottawa
Thursday, May 10, 7:00 p.m. at Buffalo
Saturday, May 12, 8:00 p.m. at Buffalo
Monday, May 14, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
Wednesday, May 16, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
* Saturday, May 19, 2:00 p.m. at Buffalo
* Monday, May 21, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
* Wednesday, May 23, 7:00 p.m. at Buffalo

Series overview:

If the NHL powers-that-be wanted to cherry-pick two teams to feature the skill and excitement of the post-lockout era, they couldn't have done better than this – the 113 point Buffalo Sabres against the 105 point Ottawa Senators is the marquee match-up that neutral hockey fans have wanted to see all year; featuring the two best teams in the Eastern Conference facing off for the right to play for the Stanley Cup. There's a lot of intrigue and anticipation in advance of this meeting - will the two highest scoring teams in the league deliver an offensive explosion? Will the bad-blood from this season spill over into the playoffs and result in more free-for-alls like we saw from these two back in February? Can Ottawa exercise their playoff demons and finally become conference champions after years of unfulfilled expectations? Will Buffalo be able to turn up their game to the high standards they set for themselves in the regular season? Can either team legitimately be determined a favourite in this series?

Why Buffalo should win the series:

Going by nearly every number possible, Buffalo - until proven otherwise - is still the best team in hockey. There's no need to review all the stats again - simply, this team can score in bunches and from every line, an attack Ottawa has yet to come close to facing with the very top-heavy offenses featured by the Pittsburgh Penguins and New Jersey Devils. And while the Sabres didn't exactly fill the net during their first two rounds, the last two games against the New York Rangers were possibly the best they played thus far, leading to the impression that they're finding their "playoff legs" so to speak. The primary reason Buffalo found their game was due to their return to aggressive puck pursuit - they have to be willing to take risks and force the opposing defence to take hits in their own zone to clear the puck. By dictating the style of play to their advantage they not only create numerous quality scoring chances, they in turn prevent any play in their own zone, keeping their defence fresh.

Perhaps most encouraging to the team, and their fans, is that they have no injuries to speak of (in stark contrast to last season). What injuries they may eventually face they now can counter with unprecedented and unmatched depth, most notably standout rookie Drew Stafford who, with the return of spirited forward Paul Gaustad, finds himself in the press box strictly due to the numbers game. If Buffalo needs to turn to Stafford in this series, it can hardly be deemed a drop-off.

With all the talk about how explosive Buffalo's offence is, they actually do have one aspect of the team that is underrated. After last Friday's miracle finish in Buffalo (where Chris Drury scored with seven seconds left to tie the game at one, and Maxim Afinogenov won it in overtime) Ryan Miller was legitimately upset in the postgame interviews, saying he "let the team down" by letting in the late goal by Martin Straka. Just to review, it was the only goal he let in all game and it was a wicked wrist shot screened by his defenceman Brian Campbell.

Miller has arrived as a fearsome playoff goaltender who cannot be judged on statistics alone - his penchant for foiling breakaways may be unparalleled in the NHL and despite the eventual emergence of the Buffalo offence he was the primary reason the Sabres advanced past the New York Rangers in round two.

Why Buffalo should be afraid:

There is some sense that the Buffalo Sabres have peaked and are cracking a bit under either the intense physical play of the postseason or some phantom weight of being the favourites. I'm not sure how much stock to put in rather ethereal characteristics but there are a number of concrete concerns for the Sabres. If there has been any knock on Buffalo this year, and Ottawa themselves made reference to it earlier in the season, it is that they can be intimidated and forced off the puck. Ottawa is not afraid to play on the edge and should be expected to do so in this series, even at the risk of playing shorthanded (which against Buffalo might not be much of a risk - read on). If Buffalo is forced into playing more conservatively - shying away from contact rather than initiating it - they have a tendency to not play their fast transition game and also become pinned in their own zone, where their offensive attack usually starts. As good as the Sabres defence is in terms of moving the puck through three zones to their forwards and defending on the rush, they have shown weaknesses when faced with a strong forecheck and cycling system, often to the point of either bad giveaways or falling into penalty trouble.

It seems almost inexplicable that a team as powerful as Buffalo's could be so bad on the powerplay. Yet they've gone well past the point of "small sample size" to the realization that they have a flawed approach on the man-advantage. Rather than using their speed and skill, they have become predictable in their approach to set up the point men for shots which has resulted in cashing in on just over 15% of their opportunities in the postseason. With a skilled and aggressive Ottawa defence, the Buffalo coaching staff simply must redefine their approach on the power play or they will lose this series.

Why Ottawa should win the series:

Although Anaheim has made relatively short work of their opponents thus-far this playoff season, Ottawa can make a strong case for being the premier team through the first two rounds. They dispatched the Penguins and Devils with ease, growing stronger as the games went on. They're leading all teams with 3.3 goals per game in the postseason. Most encouraging to Ottawa fans, their best players are finally playing like it: Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley (who has become somewhat of a Sabre-killer, echoes of Michel Goulet from a past generation) have gelled and are playing as well as they have all season, terrorizing opposing defences. Heatley in particular scored eight goals in as many games against the Sabres this season and the Sabres must find a way to prevent him from getting comfortable in the Buffalo zone.

After losing Zdeno Chara to Boston in the off-season, it was expected by many that the Ottawa defence would take a hit, but after initial growing pains their defensive unit has become – if not well-known – one of the best in the NHL. In particular they’ve been doing an excellent job clogging offensive lanes and blocking opposing shots. Anton Volchenkov led the league in blocked shots during the regular season and is at it again in the playoffs with 39 thus far, with teammate Chris Phillips not far behind with 34. With the Senators' defence stepping up while on the penalty kill, don't be surprised to see a number of quality shorthanded chances for Ottawa.

Ottawa's power play has been deadly at a 22.7% rate in the playoffs thus far. Combine that with the Sabres' difficulties in shutting down the Rangers' talented power play unit and that could spell doom for Buffalo, who is at less than 80% on the penalty kill through two rounds.

Why Ottawa should be afraid:

For all the talk about how well the top line is playing, they still have demonstrated a lack of consistent scoring threats from their other lines. Unless their secondary scorers like Antoine Vermette, Mike Comrie, and Mike Fisher can at the very least put sustained pressure on the Buffalo defence, let alone score, the Senators could find themselves behind in this series quickly. They will also need to better the Sabres at even-strength play, a difficult task.

Goaltender Ray Emery has proven many doubters wrong this season, taking the number one job and establishing himself as a quality netminder. However, he has yet to face consistent pressure all year as he is about to against Buffalo - he must come to grips with the fact that he let in some less-than-stellar goals in last year's loss to Buffalo. He's a far better - and more confident - goalie now but how will he react to giving up a bad goal this season? (…and on everyone’s minds: will Ryan Miller be a willing fight partner should the teams choose to go that route?)

While distant playoff history is not a quality guide to determine the outcome of this or any series, it must nevertheless be said that the Ottawa franchise will feel pressure at least until they make it to the finals. It becomes imperative for Ottawa to take at least one of the first two games in Buffalo lest they start questioning themselves en route to another failed postseason.

Random useless but fun playoff facts:

The Sabres have won each of the three playoff meetings between the two clubs, each being a memorable series in its own right. In 1997 the teams went to overtime of game seven before Derek Plante ripped a slapshot off of Ron Tugnutt's glove to win the series. 1999 saw the first-place Senators get swept and the shine first began to fade from Alexei Yashin (zero points after finishing the season tied for second in goals with 44). Last season's tight five-game series featured four one-goal games and ended on Jason Pominville's shorthanded tally in overtime. Buffalo head coach Lindy Ruff has established himself as one of the better playoff coaches in recent memory, taking the Sabres to four trips to the conference finals in his nine years at the helm – add one Stanley Cup victory to that resume and he will rightfully take his place among the better coaches of all-time.

My pick:

One understated key for Buffalo might be how well top defenseman Henrik Tallinder handles Ottawa's top line. Especially at home, Buffalo can match Tallinder (with partner Toni Lydman) with the deadly Ottawa line, and add pressure with playoff revelation Dainius Zubrus who overall has easily been Buffalo's best forward in the postseason, not shying away from quality dirty work along the boards in all zones.

Buffalo needs to avoid the penalty box (perhaps on both ends, due to their weak power play) as their five-on-five play in the playoffs is as impressive as it was in the regular season, outscoring their opponents at nearly a two-to-one margin through 11 games.

As for who will eventually win this best-of-seven – nobody can predict. The epitome of a toss-up series, the end result may very well turn on a random bounce of the puck or unforeseen circumstance that forces otherwise inexperienced players into action. As touched upon above, Ottawa will win this series if they can establish a constant pressure in the Buffalo zone, leaving Buffalo scrambling to create offense and ending up in the penalty box, where the Senators will pick apart Buffalo. Buffalo will win this series if they quickly and effectively neutralize the Senators' top line and can keep them frustrated - Ottawa won't quite have the quality depth to keep up with all four Buffalo lines if the Sabres can consistently roll them (read: quickly move the puck out of the Buffalo zone and stay out of penalty trouble).

I’ve gone back and forth between thinking each team was going to win this series - no result (other than it only going four or five games) could be seen as unexpected; I would think that if Ottawa can take three of the first five, they will clinch it at home in game six. However in the end, I can’t go with anything other than this series going seven games and if that happens, I give it to the home team. Buffalo in seven.

NHL Conference Finals

With Detroit's win last night, the final four are set and here are the schedules:

2007 EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

#1 Buffalo vs. #4 Ottawa
Thursday, May 10, 7:00 p.m. at Buffalo
Saturday, May 12, 8:00 p.m. at Buffalo
Monday, May 14, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
Wednesday, May 16, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
* Saturday, May 19, 2:00 p.m. at Buffalo
* Monday, May 21, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
* Wednesday, May 23, 7:00 p.m. at Buffalo

2007 WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

#1 Detroit vs. #2 Anaheim
Friday, May 11, 7:30 p.m. at Detroit
Sunday, May 13, 7:30 p.m. at Detroit
Tuesday, May 15, 9:00 p.m. at Anaheim
Thursday, May 17, 9:00 p.m. at Anaheim
* Sunday, May 20, 3:00 p.m. at Detroit
* Tuesday, May 22, 9:00 p.m. at Anaheim
* Thursday, May 24, 7:30 p.m. at Detroit
======================================
i went 3 for 4 in the second round:

my picks --- actual result

Buffalo in 6 --- Buffalo in 6
Ottawa in 5 --- Ottawa in 5
San Jose in 6 --- Detroit in 7
Anaheim in 4 --- Anaheim in 5

Eastern Conference finals: Buffalo vs. Ottawa

The East's two best teams will meet, starting probably this Thursday or Friday. This one promises to be mean and exciting.

I'll have a writeup/preview in the next day or so. In the meantime, here's an early Senators preview from Sportsnet (with hilights from last year's series between the two):

Monday notes

On a personal note, I'm a bit too drained to give any detailed commentary on the Sabres/Rangers series. Saturday was spent in a bit of disbelief as to what I actually saw on Friday night (Game 5, see below). Yesterday's first period - from a Buffalo point of view - was looking much like said game 5, with the Sabres pressing hard with a good forecheck, getting quality opportunities that seemed to just miss...and then the Rangers taking a 1-0 lead. The break probably came at a perfect time for Buffalo as they came out and took control on the ice and scoreboard in the second period.

The goal of the game was in the third period, the second from much-maligned Jochen Hecht - having played a soft and ineffective series thus far, he finally notched one in the second on a beauty of a wrister but his late third-period goal proved to be both the game-winner and an amazing display of hand-eye coordination. This clip from nhl.com doesn't do it justice - seeing the slow motion replay shows how far outside the net the original shot from Daniel Briere was going. No idea how Hecht was able to bring that back.

Kudos to the New York Rangers who played the Sabres as tight as anyone could have expected. I know Sabres fans think they could have easily taken the first four games of the series but the Rangers could also make a case for having a chance to take games 2 through 5. The better team ended up winning but the Rangers are a lot closer to the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference than anyone would have dared predict even a month ago.



In other news:

Out west the Anaheim Ducks await the winner between Detroit and San Jose, with the Wings being up 3 games to 2. For being a number one seed, Detroit has certainly proven a lot of people wrong thus far (mea culpa) and are on the verge of their first appearance in the conference finals since 2002 when they went on to win the Cup. Unfortunately for them they'll be without veteran defenceman Mathieu Schneider the rest of the way - he broke his wrist early in game 5. Schneider is one of the Wings most important players and while this may not necessarily prevent them from advancing tonight (or Wednesday), he will be missed. Brett Lebda (ankle) is already out, leaving the Wings with another replacement on defence. Who do they think they are, the Buffalo Sabres?

Alexander Ovechkin suspended for one game at the World Championships - read it in the Pravda! (aside - this paper is a riot...the pioneers of spin - it's probably good for us to realize that we didn't invent the concept...)

ugh

creative title, eh? As a Sabres' fan it is hard not to be completely disappointed in the effort put forth last night by the team. As someone who has watched all but maybe four or five games all year, this may have been their worst effort of the season. Sabres that showed up and played hard all game:

Dainius Zubrus
Ryan Miller

Feel free to correct that "list" - actually I thought Daniel Briere played pretty hard with not much help - Tim Connolly had a few notable shifts but was invisible for many others....actually that's the problem. Other than Zubrus and Briere, I didn't see any forwards skating hard all night. Thomas Vanek was terrible. Derek Roy? One notable post aside, practically non-existent (aside: I got upset when earlier in the season he was called for a number of faux-dives but sometimes his behaviour is borderline embarrassing.). Chris Drury - Mr. Teflon - must be called out. Rather than having announcers late in the game start saying "This is his time!" they should be noting that he had one shot on goal in the third period, that being a long slapper with about 30 seconds left. Jochen Hecht? Arguably the team's best two-way player a year ago, Hecht has been awful thus far. He's not going to get a lot of points, I get that, but when he is effective is when he skates into traffic and helps fight for the puck in the corners. His name hasn't been called much at all and he's been bad on the backcheck as well. Drew Stafford has looked like a raw rookie out there. Hank Tallinder was avoiding contact way too much for a supposed #1 defenceman - a few lame poke-checks while Jaromir Jagr comes flying down the wing is embarrassing.

Also, here's some second-guessing: Lindy Ruff's benching Maxim Afinogenov for Dan Paille left me stunned. How'd you like that 4:52 of ice time Danny? It's simply wrong that Max got the press box. Max hasn't been at his best but he hasn't been bad either, and even when he doesn't play smart he plays hard - he's one of the few players that open up the defence and create a little space. I hate the standard knock on Max, it reeks of Don Cherry-itis. Max isn't a perfect hockey player because he doesn't play smart sometimes, but he's rarely out there not giving an effort - something sorely lacking in at least half the entire roster last night.


I don't entirely mean to short-change the Rangers on credit - they brought a great game plan this series (after the first game) and it's working. Henrik Lundqvist almost had the shutout but if possible he was average last night - aside from a few big saves on the infrequent Sabres' threats he left some bad rebounds that Buffalo wasn't in position for...to say nothing of the near-monumental gaffe with 20 seconds left behind his net.

Speaking of which, the replay isn't worth mentioning. OK, I'll let someone else do it - I think Mark over at Bfloblog summed it up nicely:

I think that everyone who sees the replay will have to admit that the puck made its way over the line. The league’s “inconclusive” stance is technically correct but it hurts as a fan to know that the puck went in and should have forced overtime.

Yes, maybe they'd have won it in OT, but last night the Sabres beat themselves - had they been playing a better team than the Rangers the outcome would have been well beyond a doubt even in the second period. Buffalo is lucky the game wasn't 6-1.

Two-day layoff until game 5, 7pm Friday night in Buffalo.

BUF-NYR game 4 tonight

A few thoughts:

Even though the series has been close to even, this is a must-win for the Rangers as they're highly unlikely to take three straight from Buffalo.

The Sabres' powerplay is once again anemic as it was for most of the regular season. Buffalo is famously built on transition and speed, and the mostly-stationary aspect of the powerplay doesn't seem to fall into their comfort zone (although nobody has come up with an adequate solution to the question of why their PP was so fantastic last year and mediocre-at-best this year...). Too many times they are motionless and try to set up the perfect play/shot. More shots at the net - don't be afraid of getting the garbage goal.

The Rangers successfully changed their game plan going into game 2 - proof positive that the playoffs are a different animal. The Rangers played game 1 as if it were just a regular season game - a singular blip on the 82 game radar. Starting with game 2, the Rangers clamped down and didn't try to skate with Buffalo. They're clogging up the blueline, not allowing the Sabres to fly into the zone. The Sabres need to respond better by taking what they've been given - dump the puck in and go get it. Buffalo often gets stubborn, as is probably understandable for highly-skilled players. But they have to adapt.

Discipline will win this series for Buffalo - be patient with the Rangers and don't get into penalty trouble. If the Rangers get more than an average amount of time on the power-play they will win this series.

Game time 7:05 tonight.

The clamor to change playoff OT

As has been well-documented on many telecasts and blogs of late, overtime is fast-becoming the latest aspect of the NHL that MUST BE CHANGED. The cynical side of me thinks that merely the mention of alternate methods to determine a winner means that a change is sadly inevitable. And now even Lindy Ruff is on board for a change:

"I think the overtime should go to four-on-four. I think it creates more ice; it creates more chances," Ruff said yesterday. "(In overtime) teams get fatigued. The scoring chances go way down."

Ruff said the additional 37 minutes of hockey on Sunday produced five combined scoring chances from both teams.

"I looked around and it looked like people had left. I don't think people want to come here to see six periods of hockey and the last three periods (have) one or two scoring chances. I don't think that's what the game is about.

"Two or three periods of overtime, I don't think it's good for the game."

Are overtimes really that much more prevalent now or is it merely our perception? I tend to think the latter is true, and to me - even if the number of chances gets fewer and fewer - there is no comparison to playoff overtime. Are they really that onerous to the general public? Has there ever been a clamor in baseball to start lobbing pitches from behind a screen for a home run hitting contest after reaching 11 innings? Just as with any sport, if it isn't your team in it you might grow tired of the game but as for me I was fully engaged for the entirety of overtime in game 3 on Sunday.

As much as 4-on-4 even is distasteful to me (although I do wish regular season OT would extend to at least ten minutes of 4-on-4 before giving up and going to the shootout), if they ever implement the shootout for playoff hockey it would be a horrible decision.

Over at James Mirtle's site he posed the question"have there really been that many more lengthy overtime games these playoffs than in the past?" and I haven't been able to find the answer yet. Over at the trust-at-your-own-risk Wikipedia page they list the 20 longest games in history with #20 clocking in at 53:50 of OT played (just past the midway point of the 3rd OT). There are nine games on the list played since 1994. That just doesn't seem like a lot to me - the human mind tends to remember the exceptions rather than the norm.

Ryan Callahan

After getting home very late last night I foolishly insisted on at least perusing BUF/NYR game 3 without knowing the outcome - quick zipping through the first 2 1/2 periods and then I watched it with very low sound straight through from Daniel Briere's goal until the end. Three cheers for five hours of sleep. So I don't have much commentary to provide other than something I'm sure everyone has noted - the ice was so bad last night it looked like us playing street hockey in high school using a fresh tennis ball for a puck. Each team had a bunch of chances in OT they would have buried (or at least had great opportunities for odd-man-rushes) had the puck been settling more normally.

Most of the focus is on the stars in these playoffs, but the guy who really stood out for me last night was Rangers' forward Ryan Callahan. From my Sabres-point of view, he made the unsung play of overtime when (2nd OT I think...it's a bit of a blur) he backchecked hard on Briere, preventing him from corralling the puck by himself in the slot while Henrik Lundqvist was down and out - that would have been a sure goal. In not a ton of ice-time Callahan made a quality impact, especially in the last ~3 periods - in all he totalled 6 hits and 3 blocked shots on the night.

Callahan played on some great teams in Guelph for the Storm of the OHL as a top-notch physical scoring winger - this kid could be a future captain with his effort and skill.

Playoff preview: New Jersey Devils (2) vs. Ottawa Senators (5)

to be published at SportsBlurb.com

Schedule:

Thursday, April 26 7:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey
Saturday, April 28 8:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey VERSUS
Monday, April 30 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
Wednesday, May 2 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
*Saturday, May 5 8:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey VERSUS
*Monday, May 7 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
*Wednesday, May 9 7:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey

Series overview:

Seen in simplistic terms, this looks to be a series between an offensive giant vs. a defensive one. These two teams finished one win and two points apart in the standings but their styles are very different – how will the always defensively-conscious New Jersey Devils stymie the dangerous offensive attack (288 goals, second in NHL) of the Ottawa Senators while scoring enough to win?

Why New Jersey should win the series:

Despite their meager goal-scoring totals for the season, New Jersey has more offensive talent than their overall statistics show. With six goals in as many games (and leading all playoff scorers), emerging star Zach Parise showed why he's a good bet to be a steady 30-40 goal scorer for years to come. Relative old hand Scott Gomez leads the league with nine points, and Brian Rafalski, Patrick Elias, and Brian Gionta all are in the top-10 in points. Their front-end talent forms a swarming threat to opposing defences. New Jersey's power play clicked at a 25% rate against Tampa Bay. There's always the Martin Brodeur factor, as he had one of the greatest seasons of his career, but he’ll have to improve on his play over the first round, as Ottawa sports a much deeper attack than he faced from the Lightning.

Why New Jersey should be afraid:

Brodeur did not have a consistent first-round series against Tampa Bay – yes, his overall numbers were good but games two and three were marked by shaky goals that kept the Lightning in the series much longer than New Jersey would have liked. Defensively this team will still have to answer questions – they consistently hold teams to low goal totals but they will need to play out of character and bring a much more physical style of play to neutralize the dangerous Ottawa offence. The Devils should be able to keep the odd-man rushes to a minimum but if the Senators can develop a cycle in the New Jersey zone, the Devils will not have the brawn to defend against it for long. Finally, despite the front-end talent of New Jersey, the fact remains that they (in)famously play a shutdown style of hockey; opportunistic to a fault. With the talent and discipline in place it makes for successful seasons but the big challenge will be if Ottawa takes early leads – will New Jersey have the skill and mindset to change their style of play, and open up the attack more than they’re comfortable with? And if so, beyond the few big guns they do have, who will provide scoring support? Their lack of scoring depth often doesn’t hurt them, but against a premier opponent like Ottawa it could prove fatal.

And finally this late info: Patrick Elias will miss at least game one because of what is being called a cold - obviously very bad news for New Jersey.

Why Ottawa should win the series:

The importance of Ottawa’s first round defeat of the Pittsburgh Penguins cannot be overstated. Through the past decade, the franchise has had great regular season success but has never matched expectations in the post-season; qualifying for the playoffs in each of the past ten seasons (including six 100+ point seasons) Ottawa had only won five of 14 playoff series and advanced to the conference finals once (losing to New Jersey in 2003). Combining that pressure and the public’s fascination with the sudden rise and stability of the Penguins, the Senators were in many ways an afterthought in the first round. After a convincing five game beating, the Senators served notice that they are still a premier team. Their top players are well-known: Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and Captain Daniel Alfredsson, but general hockey fans may not be aware of the depth in this team - players like Mike Fisher and Chris Kelly make this team a true threat. Among Ottawa skaters, only Kelly (three) and Mike Comrie (two) had more than one even-strength goal against Pittsburgh. Finally, goalie Ray Emery took a beating last year for spotty play in the post-season – his play was poor, but he was an undeserved scapegoat. This season he emerged as the clear number one and should give his team confidence that he will back up the team after any breakdowns in front of him.

Why Ottawa should be afraid:

Having just complimented their lesser-known lights, their stars need to step up and play better to advance - Heatley and Spezza in particular. Each played more than 63 minutes of even-strength play during the Pittsburgh series and their line never scored a goal. It should go without saying that that performance won't be good enough to win against the tighter and more disciplined Devils. Despite the increased swagger the Sens should possess, there will still be talk about underachieving until they someday get to the Cup finals - only the team itself can quell such doubtless-annoying talk in the media and amongst the fans by winning, so in some ways the pressure remains.

Random useless but fun playoff facts:

Ottawa and New Jersey have met twice in the post-season, each team taking one series. The first meeting in 1998 saw the Senators pull a shocking first-round upset of the Devils – 14 wins separated the two in the standings but Ottawa prevailed in six low-scoring games. The 2003 meeting was in the conference finals where the Devils returned the favour in knocking off the President’s Trophy-winning Senators in a 3-2 seventh game.

My pick:

New Jersey had what could be called a typical year for them – top of the division, lowest goals-against in the conference, just (barely) enough offense to win. Ottawa hid under the radar for most of this season - they got off to a slow start, had goaltending troubles, adjusted to major off-season losses (most notably Zdeno Chara, Martin Havlat), but had a fantastic second-half.

Due much to the nature of the modern NHL, the overall parity has already given us a few match-ups in the early rounds that would have been worthy as Conference Finals, and this series could be another one. Nevertheless it looks from here that the Senators are just that much stronger in every zone. The Devils had difficulty with the rather one-dimensional Lightning while the Senators disposed of the Penguins with much more ease than many would have thought possible. The Devils had great success this season but don’t have the look of a tough playoff team. Whereas the Senators could have been accused of playing cautiously in the past, the early-season emergence of Ray Emery in part helped the team play with a confidence that could prove deadly to their opponents through the playoffs. Ottawa’s road to the Cup is proving to be very challenging which in the end could play to their benefit - it’s likely they’ll have to get through four 100+ point teams to win it all. Taking the Elias absence into account, the Senators will get at least one step further as they should defeat New Jersey in 5.

first round stats

damn, i got to this a little late. Following chart includes last night's games; I don't feel like editing it so here's what happened:

Vanek 1ESG, 1PPG
Pominville 1ESG
Nylander 2 ESA

RK	Player	Team	Pos	GP	ESG	ESA	ESP	PPG	PPA	PPP	SHG	SHA	SHP	GW		OT
1	MICHAEL NYLANDER	NYR	C	5	3	4	7	1	2	3	0	0	0	2		0
2	MARTIN ST. LOUIS	TBL	R	6	2	4	6	1	1	2	0	0	0	0		0
3	SCOTT GOMEZ	NJD	C	6	2	4	6	0	3	3	0	0	0	1		1
4	JOE THORNTON	SJS	C	5	0	6	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
5	VINCENT LECAVALIER	TBL	C	6	4	1	5	1	1	2	0	0	0	1		0
6	THOMAS VANEK	BUF	L	6	3	2	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	1		0
7	JAROMIR JAGR	NYR	R	5	2	3	5	0	2	2	0	0	0	0		0
8	TAYLOR PYATT	VAN	L	8	2	3	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1		1
9	FEDOR TYUTIN	NYR	D	5	0	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
10	ZACH PARISE	NJD	C	6	4	0	4	2	0	2	0	0	0	1		0
11	BRIAN GIONTA	NJD	R	6	4	0	4	1	1	2	0	0	0	1		0
12	MILAN MICHALEK	SJS	R	5	4	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1		0
13	ALEXANDER RADULOV	NSH	R	4	3	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
14	CHRIS KELLY	OTT	C	5	3	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
15	JASON POMINVILLE	BUF	R	6	3	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
16	BRYAN SMOLINSKI	VAN	C	8	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
17	PETER FORSBERG	NSH	C	5	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
18	JOHAN FRANZEN	DET	C	6	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	1		1
19	PATRICK MARLEAU	SJS	C	5	2	2	4	1	1	2	0	0	0	1		0
20	JEAN-PIERRE DUMONT	NSH	R	5	2	2	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	1		0