quick picks

I like San Jose to come out of the top-heavy West...and it's hard to argue against Ottawa in the East (and winning it all, finally). I think Buffalo and Pittsburgh are the only other two that at this point wouldn't be upsets to win the East.

Team I wanted to pick for the playoffs: Montreal.

Sidney Crosby for the Ross and Hart (bold, I know. But I did pick him for both last year so I've earned it. Or something....). Jay Bouwmeester for the Norris (but likely to Nik Lidstrom again because Detroit could win 60 and rack up great individual numbers playing in that amateur division). Roberto Luongo for Vezina. Peter Mueller (Phoenix) for Calder. Phoenix has the potential to be legendarily-awful this year, and I think they'll need to put the vastly talented Mueller out there for big minutes each game to give the "fans" something to cheer.

Experts league

Click here for our league home page.

Click here for draft results.

We're going with the same format as last year, with G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP for offence and W, GAA, SV% for goalies.



I've got drafts the next 2 nights and then I'll be finishing up my season intro article with predictions on standings, since it went so well last year.

Northeast previews

quick links to each team's preview:

Ottawa Senators
Buffalo Sabres
Montreal Canadiens
Toronto Maple Leafs
Boston Bruins

Your 2007-2008 Ottawa Senators

(To be published in the upcoming SportsGrumblings.com free preseason fantasy guide. My assignment was the Northeast division...)
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Ottawa Senators

2006-07 record: 48-25-9, 105 points. Second in division/fourth in conference. Lost in Stanley Cup Finals to Anaheim Ducks.

Coach: John Paddock
General Manager: Bryan Murray
Home arena: Scotiabank Place
Capacity: 19153

The often-underachieving Senators finally broke out of their playoff funk last season and became Eastern Conference champions, reaching the Stanley Cup finals for the first time in their modern existence. For a change they played the underdog role all year; three months into the season it looked as if the Senators would be in a dogfight all season to simply make the playoffs. However, a powerful second-half put the rest of the division on notice that the Senators were every bit the powerhouse they had imagined themselves over the better part of the last decade, and hit their stride in the playoffs – steamrolling the Pittsburgh Penguins, New Jersey Devils, and Buffalo Sabres in five games each before falling to the Anaheim Ducks in the finals. Yet the disappointment of flaming out in the final round shouldn’t be the final epitaph for Ottawa in 2007 – with the vast majority of the team’s talented core returning, the capital region has high hopes that perhaps this season will be the one where they bring home the title.

Last season’s changes (losing Zdeno Chara, Dominik Hasek, and Martin Havlat) looked to be backbreaking but clearly after an adjustment period the team rolled, playing five months of stellar hockey. The Senators didn’t suffer as many big changes during this off-season; forwards Mike Comrie and Peter Schaefer as well as defenceman Tom Preissing being the only standouts who will not return to the conference champions. As it stands, the Senators are poised to defend their crown and take it one step further this season.



Forwards:

Depth Chart:

Dany Heatley	Jason Spezza	Daniel Alfredsson
Chris Kelly	Mike Fisher	Patrick Eaves
Shean Donovan (RW)	Dean McAmmond	Chris Neil
	Antoine Vermette	Brian McGrattan

rookies/callups: C-Josh Hennessy, LW-Jim McKenzie.

Once again this season, Ottawa shouldn’t have to worry about offence. Their output (averaging 3.5 goals per game last year, second in the league) should remain constant, as their core talent remains young and even perhaps improving. No team boasts an elite three combination like Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and Daniel Alfredsson. While they were split up on occasion last year to try to spread the offence around, it was clear that together they formed a devastating combo, one that perhaps only lacks a quality nickname to earn historical distinction. Each of the three finished comfortably within the top 20 in league scoring, with Heatley being only one of two (Vincent Lecavalier) to notch at least 50 goals.

While the dropoff in talent after the big three is obviously great, the Senators do boast offensive threats after the first line. Mike Fisher has become one of the better two-way centers in the league; known for his speed and tight checking, Fisher’s second straight 22-goal campaign places him as a solid threat in every zone. Youngsters Patrick Eaves and Chris Kelly each made strides last year, contributing 29 goals between them – with the departure of late-season acquisition Mike Comrie (New York Islanders), look for Eaves and Kelly to increase their ice-time and be relied upon for solid depth scoring. Antoine Vermette is another young speedster on the rise – his 14 even-strength goals last season were fourth-best on the team. With more power-play time this year, Vermette could and should crack the 50 point barrier. Chris Neil is known more for his mouth and fists, but the truth is that Neil is a talented player when he controls himself; as the main policeman on the team (perhaps slowly ceding that role to Brian McGrattan) he can be good for roughly 15 goals while opponents look over their shoulders and watch their chins.

Defence:

Depth Chart:

Chris Phillips	Wade Redden
Joe Corvo	Anton Volchenkov
Christoph Schubert	Andrej Meszaros
Lawrence Nycholat

For an elite team, Ottawa’s defencive corps are underrated as a whole. Their top two defenders - Wade Redden and Chris Phillips - are well-known (being drafted 2nd and 1st overall in 1995 and 1996 respectively), but their supporting cast stepped out of the ominous shadow of the departed Zdeno Chara last season and helped the team keep to a tidy 2.6 goals allowed per game, outstanding for such an offensive powerhouse. While no individual was a big scorer (the departed Tom Preissing (Florida Panthers) led the defence with 38 points), the contributions were spread out on the scoresheet, with each of the top six getting at least 25 points. Four defensemen sported a +/- of +30 or more (Preissing +40, Anton Volchenkov +37, Phillips +36, Christoph Shubert +30), which if anything shows more of a team-wide commitment to quality defence. The playoffs were where the group really shined, especially in the conference finals against Buffalo, keeping the Sabres horribly frustrated on the power play throughout the five games.


Goaltending:

Ray Emery
Martin Gerber

One year ago Ray Emery was the easy scapegoat for Ottawa’s shocking flameout in the second round at the hands of the Buffalo Sabres. While he was hardly the only Senator to play poorly, the sight of him on the ice as Jason Pominville scored the series winner was seared into the minds of Senators’ fans all summer. So when Ottawa signed Martin Gerber to challenge Emery for the top position last season, most figured the job was Gerber’s to lose. Which is exactly what he did – after a poor start to the season, injuries shelved him and Ray Emery came in and absolutely took over, leading the Senators the rest of the way and leaving no doubt as to who the new number one goalie was, and is. Emery was just signed to a three-year deal and will remain their netminder for the foreseeable future. Yet for all the progress Emery has made, his flaws are apparent: he relies too much on his athletic ability to make saves, as his positioning is well below-average for an NHL goaltender. He also has a maddening tendency to leave glaring rebounds, and as a result – even though the team is now “set” in goal – and perhaps due to the overall strength of the club - Emery remains the team’s one question mark.

Outlook:

While the on-ice changes have been minimal this off-season, the firing of General Manager John Muckler was seen as a bit of a surprise. Coach Bryan Murray was bumped up to the GM spot and John Paddock takes over the reigns, hoping to lead the club to three more postseason victories. Can they do it? It’s easy to make the case for the Senators being a top team once again – they will feel the pressure from a young(er) Buffalo club, but the relative weakness of the rest of the division and the likely adjustment period for the Sabres should mean Ottawa will once again reign supreme in the Northeast division. This might be their last opportunity with this core of players, as a number of their big names are in line for free agency next summer, most notably Wade Redden and Dany Heatley, who will likely break the bank with whichever team he signs with. Undoubtedly there will be a sense of urgency to win it all this year, and as this year’s team bears a strong similarity to last year’s, look for Ottawa to once again be in the mix for the elusive Stanley Cup.

Your 2007-2008 Buffalo Sabres

(To be published in the upcoming SportsGrumblings.com free preseason fantasy guide. My assignment was the Northeast division...)
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Buffalo Sabres

2006-07 record: 53-22-7, 113 points. First in division/first in conference. Lost in Conference Finals to Ottawa Senators.

Coach: Lindy Ruff
General Manager: Darcy Regier
Home arena: HSBC Arena
Capacity: 18690

Fresh off a heartbreaking and unlucky game 7 loss to Carolina in the Conference Finals, the 2006-07 Buffalo Sabres re-tooled slightly and started the season on a tear – winning their first ten games en route to the best record in the league and their first Presidents Trophy. Leading the league in goals scored and boasting four 30+ goal scorers, plus four more with at least 19, the team was a roaring success both on and off the ice. Buffalo fans bought every seat all year and the entire region was poised for their first major championship since the 1965 Buffalo Bills won the AFL title. Alas, a funny thing happened on the way to the Stanley Cup – teams were ready for them, and gave them a battle in nearly every game until the Sabres ran out of gas. The New York Islanders were no match on paper but fought a valiant five game series that hardly made Sabres’ fans confident. The New York Rangers earned a split after four games and perhaps only a miraculous game five comeback by Buffalo catapulted them into the next round against the red-hot Ottawa Senators. There, they met their doom, much of it on their own hands – with a dreadful power-play that drew calls from the hometown faithful to “decline the penalty” after a few games. The almost-dream season ended in overtime of game five, but after a few stunned days fans had every right to look ahead to the inevitable Cup…

…and then Sabres’ fans worst fears came true: both captains were lost on July 1st to free agency - “Black Sunday” as it came to be known. Daniel Briere signed with the Philadelphia Flyers and Chris Drury with the New York Rangers, arguably two of the most-hated Sabres’ rivals. To top it off, the Edmonton Oilers gave restricted free agent Thomas Vanek (43 goals) a monstrous offer sheet that the Sabres absolutely had to match.

So is the Buffalo Sabres’ time over? Have they squandered a golden opportunity to bring the Stanley Cup home to a hockey-mad area? Or will the organization’s long-term scouting vision pay off once again and simply plug new talent into the available slots?


Forwards:

Depth Chart:

Thomas Vanek	Derek Roy	Maxim Afinogenov
Ales Kotalik	Tim Connolly	Jason Pominville
Jochen Hecht	Paul Gaustad	Drew Stafford
Dan Paille	Adam Mair
Andrew Peters	Mike Ryan

rookies/callups: C – Marek Zagrapan, W - Clarke MacArthur, Patrick Kaleta, Mark Mancari.

So here are the facts: a team loses two of their top three scorers, one a 95 point sniper and the other with 17 powerplay goals and an intangible legend of supposed unparalleled leadership; furthermore, the two players were arguably the two most popular in the community. Combined with the Vanek offer sheet, and everything adds up to an early summer public relations nightmare, and the end of the Sabres’ window to win the Stanley Cup. Or is it?

Of course losing two of your top three scorers will be damaging to any team, at least in the short-term. However, that fact doesn’t mean those points won’t come at all. Those roles will now be filled by younger (and much cheaper) players, and as anyone who has paid attention to the NHL over the past two seasons, the Sabres have had no shortage of replacement parts. Injury callups such as Jason Pominville, Derek Roy, and Drew Stafford have gone from temporary replacements to bonafide NHL regulars.

The Sabres’ feature line this year will no doubt be the “RAV” line of Roy centering Vanek and the ever-exciting Maxim Afinogenov. With the huge long-term contracts just signed by Roy and Vanek, the Sabres have locked each of them up for at least six years and through their prime years, until each is 30. Derek Roy’s 63 points last year with roughly little powerplay time should increase this season as he becomes the team’s de facto number one center. Wildly talented and exciting Tim Connolly hopes to build upon the success he had two years ago before a devastating concussion left him on the sidelines for a year. If he stays healthy, he should provide an outstanding second center for Buffalo, and could look to any number of talents on his wings to find the net. Jason Pominville took over for the departed J.P. Dumont last year and ended up with 34 goals, 30 of which were at even-strength – one behind league leader Vincent Lecavalier. Pominville is a natural scorer and coupling him with Connolly should be a treat to watch. Drew Stafford is the next most-exciting talent on the team; a frequent call-up from the nearby Rochester AHL affiliate, Stafford managed 13 goals in just half a season while earning respect from teammates and fans alike for a strong physical presence and defence of teammates (recall the Drury/Chris Neil incident in February). With more minutes, special teams play, and a regular centerman Stafford should easily reach mid-20s in goals and has 30 goal / 65 point power winger potential for the foreseeable future.

The Sabres’ forward depth is obviously a bit less this season but still well above average - Ales Kotalik is an enigma; a 227 pound winger with a devastating shot with inconsistent results. Buffalo would be very happy to get 20 goals / 50 points and a nightly physical presence, but his $2.5 million salary makes him one of the most likely to be dealt. Jochen Hecht is an underrated and versatile winger who’s value doesn’t necessarily show on the scoresheet – he gives an effort every night and often does the unseen work away from the puck leading to chances for his linemates. Beyond that the Sabres look to put forth a more physical presence this season, with Paul Gaustad to step up and take a stronger role as third center. Dan Paille and Adam Mair will be the most prominent to fill out the remaining spots. Buffalo may not lead the league in goals again this season but they should fall comfortably within the top 10.

Defence:

Depth Chart:

Henrik Tallinder	Toni Lydman
Brian Campbell	Teppo Numminen
Dmitri Kalinin	Jaroslav Spacek
Nathan Paetsch

rookies/callups: Michael Funk, Andrej Sekera, Mke Card.

Buffalo’s defensive corps may not have any of the bigger names in the NHL but due to their vast exposure in the past few seasons are starting to get some serious name recognition. The unquestioned top duo of Henrik Tallinder and Toni Lydman won’t bring much offence (33 points combined in 114 games) but the team suffers greatly without them in the lineup. Their simple defensive style of getting the puck to their forwards is essential to the quick transition game of the Sabres. Taking care of the offensive side is Brian Campbell, starting just his second full season in the NHL. Campbell, with 48 points last season, was an All-Star game starter after a fantastic first half, but struggled in the latter half of the season as he appeared to lose confidence in his greatest skill – moving the puck up the ice. He brings a flair to the Buffalo blueline not seen since the Phil Housley days but like Housley he can be careless about his defensive game. Back for yet another “final” season will be ageless Teppo Numminen; slowing a bit but still an above-average rearguard due to his low panic threshold with the puck. The biggest frustration for the Sabres and their fans may be Dmitri Kalinin, a one-time first round pick who has shown flashes of all-around brilliance but suffers from a glaring and shocking lack of confidence, occasionally forcing the coaching’s staff’s hand in benching him. Also in that vein was last year’s newcomer Jaroslav Spacek – acquired in free agency, the offensive-minded defenseman slowly lost coach Lindy Ruff’s confidence and by the end of the playoffs was only on the ice for a handful of minutes per night. Skilled utility man Nathan Paetsch slots in comfortably as either a replacement defenseman or fourth-line winger. Buffalo signed him to a three-year deal in late July, and clearly sees him as a future contributor.

Buffalo’s all-around defensive game is solid but at times they can maddeningly get pinned in their own end. Much of this problem results in the forwards forgetting their defensive responsibilities, leaving the defenceman along among a fierce forecheck. Ottawa exploited this team weakness in the playoffs last season and Buffalo must either think more conservatively overall (read: not always playing for the odd-man breakout) or upgrade the back end of their defensive corps.

Goaltending:

Ryan Miller
Jocelyn Thibault

Very simply, despite all of Buffalo’s offensive exploits, no player means more to Buffalo’s success than goaltender Ryan Miller. In many ways he’s a goalie that cannot be measured by his statistics (see also Grant Fuhr, 1984-1988) because on this aggressive offensively-minded team he will likely see more quality rubber flying his way than in a conservative system. Miller differs from many of the great goaltenders of the past and present in that he doesn’t need to make the spectacular save very often; his positioning is exceptional and he reads the oncoming rush as well as anyone in the league. As a result of Miller’s skills, the Sabres are able to press more and take chances they otherwise would not with a lesser goalie between the pipes. Having said that, and in light of the high profile free agent losses this year, it would behoove management to lock Miller up to a long-term deal very soon (he has two seasons left before he becomes an unrestricted free agent). Veteran Jocelyn Thibault was signed to a one year deal and should see roughly 15-20 games of action this season, but should not be counted on to carry the team in the event of any long-term absence of Ryan Miller.

Outlook:

Now that a little time has passed since Briere and Drury’s departure, people can analyze what the Buffalo Sabres actually are, rather than what they could have been. And what they are is still an elite team; perhaps in the overall picture they took a step back but their core is now even younger, and in the long run they should experience sustained success. They should be able to give Ottawa a run for the division, even though it may take some time for new line combinations to jell, and be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference once again.

Your 2007-2008 Montreal Canadiens

(Again, these will all be found in the upcoming SportsGrumblings.com free preseason fantasy guide. My assignment was the Northeast division...)
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Montreal Canadiens

2006-07 record: 42-34-6, 90 points. Fourth in division/tenth in conference.

Coach: Guy Carbonneau
General Manager: Bob Gainey
Home arena: Bell Centre
Capacity: 21273

Despite winning 42 games for the second consecutive season, the Montreal Canadiens missed out on a playoff birth by the slimmest of margins, losing a must-win game on the final day of the season to finish in 10th place, two points out of the eighth spot. The most successful franchise in NHL history has now gone 14 seasons since their 23rd and most recent Stanley Cup victory, easily the longest stretch in their storied history, and have only won three playoff series’ in that time. To say that there is an uproar in southern Quebec would be an exaggeration, but there is certainly unease amongst the faithful fans who long for the days when the Flying Frenchmen would dominate all foes. As they stand right now, the franchise is a mix of youth and experience, one that can compete most nights but overall has been an average club since the lockout.

Yet last year some signs occurred that gave hope to the Canadiens’ fans in the form of an influx of rookie talent that brought a shot of excitement to the Bell Centre and left the team just short in the end. A big question will be whether or not these up-and-coming players will fully develop their game before the older guard on the team is either past their peak or has moved on to other teams. Can the Habs fuse their youth and veterans to propel themselves back into their rightful place in the NHL playoffs?

Depth Chart:

Guillaume Latendresse	Saku Koivu	Alexei Kovalev
Chris Higgins	Bryan Smolinski	Michael Ryder
Steve Begin	Maxim Lapierre	Andrei Kostitsyn
Tomas Plekanec	Garth Murray	Tom Kostopolous

rookies/callups: C – Kyle Chipchura, LW - Mikhail Grabovski


Any discussion of the Montreal Canadiens’ offense must begin with captain Saku Koivu, now entering his 12th season with the Canadiens and eighth as team captain, the longest such tenure in Montreal since Bob Gainey. Koivu has never been a big scorer – somewhat due to his size but a series of bizarre injuries and illnesses have limited him to just three seasons of at least 80 games – yet few players give their all on the ice like Koivu does and is the undisputed leader of the club. Montreal’s other “big name” forward is the enigmatic Alexei Kovalev, in many ways the opposite of Koivu. Where Koivu seems to overachieve, Kovalev – for all the success he has had in the NHL (333 goals) – he has always left those who watch him wanting more. Kovalev flashes world class skills yet has only exceeded 77 points once in 14 seasons. Michael Ryder is their next biggest offensive threat, with 30 goals in each of the last two seasons. This may be Ryder’s swan song in Montreal, however, having reached an agreement for a one year deal that will bring him to unrestricted free agency after this season. If the Canadiens are out of the playoff picture come February, Ryder will be one of the most sought-after players by the trading deadline.

The reason Ryder could be expendable is because of the offensive talents Montreal has in the organization that are ready to assume regular NHL duties, none more heralded and popular than Quebec native Guillaume Latendresse. Fresh off a three year stint with the Drummondville Voltigeurs of the Quebec Major Junior League (where he scored 43 goals in 51 games his final season), the 19-year old Latendresse made a quick impression with the big club last year and was able to keep up with the big guns when he spent time on the first line. Although he only ended up with 16 goals and 29 points, look for Latandresse to have the opportunity to play left wing alongside Koivu and if he sticks, he has the skills to put up 25 goals and 50 points while maintaining a physical presence. Winger Andrei Kostitsyn repeatedly bounced back and forth between Montreal and their AHL affiliate in Hamilton last season but managed 11 points in 22 games while scoring 21 in 50 at Hamilton. 22-year old Maxim Lapierre plays a different style, bringing a high energy two-way game well-suited for checking line duties. These rookies joined a number of other young talents on the roster which include 24-year olds Tomas Plekanec (20 goals) and Chris Higgins (45 goals through his first two seasons), and ready at the minor league level are young offensive prospects Mikhail Grabovski and Kyle Chipchura, providing hope that the Canadiens aren’t spinning their wheels – they’re building for the near future.

Veteran center Bryan Smolinski was signed to a one-year deal; he’ll provide solid defensive play and should chip in 15 goals in any variety of roles. Steve Begin, Garth Murray, and Tom Kostopolous will fill out the third and fourth lines in mostly checking assignments.

Defence

Roman Hamrlik	Andrei Markov
Francis Bouillon	Mathieu Dandenault
Patrice Brisebois	Mike Komisarek
Mark Streit	Josh Gorges

On paper Sheldon Souray had one of the better offensive seasons by a defenseman in recent history, setting an NHL record for power play goals with 19. His timing also couldn’t have been better, having achieved these totals in his walk year for Montreal, one in which he cashed in for $27 million over the next five years with the Edmonton Oilers. The fact is that Montreal is, or will be, better off not having signed Souray to such a lengthy deal. While his booming shot and constant threat on the power play are definite assets, his defence and playmaking are suspect and for that money the Canadiens would be wise to invest it in future talent. So now the offensive responsibilities will be a bit more spread out, and most likely Andrei Markov will be the primary puck carrier and point man on the power play. Markov set career highs last season with 43 assists and 49 points and was rewarded with a four-year contract. Montreal dipped into the free agent market and signed former number one pick (1992) Roman Hamrlik to a four-year deal as well. Hamrlik has never quite lived up to his lofty billing, but is still an excellent player – a consistent offensive threat from the blueline who doesn’t shy away from contact.

Mike Komisarek will never compete for offensive numbers with Markov and Hamrlik, but will instead provide much-needed defensive responsibilities behind the blueline. Mark Streit would be the third option for Montreal on the power play – in just his second NHL season (after five years in the Swiss league) Streit notched 36 points. Francis Bouillon and Mathieu Dandenault are the kind of faceless veterans that are well-respected by their teammates for doing the dirty work necessary, despite being not nearly as skilled as their fellow defensemen. Veteran and former local whipping-boy Patrice Brisebois is back in town on a one year deal; perhaps without the pressure of being a top-four defenceman he can ease into a supporting role at age 36. Josh Gorges came over from San Jose last year in the deal for veteran Craig Rivet and provides depth but little offence.

Goaltending:

Cristobal Huet
Jaroslav Halak

rookies/callups: G – Carey Price

In June of 2004, Cristobal Huet was thrown into a deal between the Los Angeles Kings and Montreal Canadiens that centered around Radek Bonk coming to Montreal. Huet wasn’t on many Canadiens’ fans radar when the NHL awoke from their slumber in the fall of 2005, but he soon made them take notice – the rapid and surprising demise of former MVP Jose Theodore was countered by the absolutely stellar play of Huet as he grabbed the starter’s job, saved pucks at a .929 clip and nearly single-handedly carried Montreal into the playoffs. The 31 year old veteran of the French and Swiss leagues couldn’t be expected to keep up the same level of play last season, but did still play well enough to appear in the all star game. Unfortunately for Huet, his days in Montreal are likely numbered as the Canadiens have two young goaltenders that could carry the team into the next decade. 22-year old Jaroslav Halak was impressive in 16 games after his late-season call-up but the true future star is 19-year old Carey Price. Price was already enjoying a highly successful junior career with Tri-City of the Western Hockey League before he experienced unprecedented success in 2007: he backstopped Canada to the World Junior Championships in January, winning tournament MVP in the process; he then was signed by Montreal and assigned to Hamilton (AHL) where he proceeded to play 22 playoff games where he ended up with a .936 save percentage and playoff MVP. Price will get a chance to win the starting job in Montreal this year but if he fails he will be returned to Hamilton to play the season in the AHL.


Outlook:

The future looks bright for the Montreal Canadiens. With so many young players in the lineup, there is a very real possibility that the team could actually take a temporary step backwards this year but they are on the right track to being a serious contender within three or four years. As for 2007-2008, a lot has to go right for them to move up, and most importantly they need to improve upon their defensive game (256 goals against). A true wildcard, they could either finish a distant 10th or if the youth brigade all take a step forward they could challenge for a middle playoff spot.

Your 2007-2008 Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs

2006-07 record: 40-31-11, 91 points. Third in division/ninth in conference.

Coach: Paul Maurice
General Manager: John Ferguson, Jr.
Home arena: Air Canada Centre
Capacity: 18819

Overview:

It’s hard to summarize the recent history of the Toronto Maple Leafs. On the one hand, over the past eight seasons the team has won 40 or more games seven times, while reaching the conference finals twice. On the other hand, their legions of critics (who love to slam the franchise for reasons mostly stemming from their ubiquitous appearances on CBC and their eastern Canadian market dominance) can simply point out that they haven’t even been to a Stanley Cup final since 1967, let alone win one, and have not made the playoffs in either post-lockout season.

The Leafs have been stuck in a bit of a holding pattern for much of the past decade; they’ve never been shy about showing a lot of veteran love – signing aging stars such as Gary Roberts, Joe Nieuwendyk, Owen Nolan, and Alex Mogilny – all of whom were still decent contributors upon joining the Leafs yet on the downside of their impressive careers. The wisdom of such signings was and is certainly up for debate, as one could certainly point to the relative success from 1999-2004 when the team averaged 98 points per year – but at what cost? As these players reached the end of their tenures with the Leafs (or sometimes their careers) the team wouldn’t have adequate replacements for them, which may be a solid reason that over the past few seasons the team has been floundering for an identity.

The Maple Leafs are hoping to make small strides to build a bit more with youth (or at least younger than their standard 35+ year old acquisitions) while retaining their veterans in a push to make the playoffs for the first time since their 103 point 2004 season.

Forwards:

Alexei Ponikarovsky	Mats Sundin	Jason Blake
Chad Kilger	Kyle Wellwood	Darcy Tucker
Mark Bell	Matt Stajan	Boyd Devereaux
Alex Steen	Nik Antropov
Bates Battaglia	John Pohl

rookies/callups: C – Kris Newbury

As referenced above, change may slowly be in the works for Toronto, but for now the Leafs’ top line will likely be anchored by two high-scoring veterans. Leafs captain and future Hall-of-Famer Mats Sundin will return for his 13th season with Toronto, and despite a growing legion of nagging injuries is always good for a point-per-game pace. In their biggest offseason move, the Leafs dipped into the free agent market this summer and signed 40 goal scorer Jason Blake away from the New York Islanders. The Leafs do, however, have a number of young forwards who should be seeing serious playing time with the big club. Alexei Ponikarovsky stands the best chance of playing with the top two – 21 goals is the high for the 27 year old winger, but the big man could see career highs playing the physical role and seeing power play time. Kyle Wellwood is an intriguing young center who dominated the junior ranks and just last season seemed to be on the verge of establishing himself as a big scorer in the NHL (42 points in 48 games) before a hernia sidelined him for nearly half the season. Wellwood can play soft at times but has world-class skills with the puck and should be a vital part of Toronto’s offense.

With (a hopefully healthy) Sundin and Wellwood as their top two pivots, the Leafs’ wingers will see many scoring chances all year long, but can they convert? Darcy Tucker will be good for 25 goals, many on the power play, as well as countless dives, fisticuffs, and items thrown at televisions anywhere outside of southern Ontario. Perhaps the most intriguing and boom/bust worthy man on the roster this season is Mark Bell. After two strong seasons in Chicago, Bell should have been on the verge of breaking out last season with a trade to the powerful San Jose Sharks and playing alongside Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo. Instead he experienced a nightmare year that started with an awful pre-season incident and ended up with his eventual benching due to listless play - it became obvious that Bell needed a change of scenery. Toronto is hoping that he can clear his head in Toronto and get his career back on track, although being in the world’s largest hockey media market can crush the most fragile of personalities. We should know by mid-season whether or not the Bell experiment is a success. Alex Steen, son of former Winnipeg Jets standout Thomas Steen, is a highly skilled playmaker who can slot in at either center or wing, and will only benefit from more minutes. Matt Stajan is a very underrated two-way center who may never be great at one aspect of the game but excel enough for a good long career. Forward depth is still a bit of a question – the enigmatic Nik Antropov will never be the physically dominant forward that fans want him to be. Bates Battaglia, Chad Kilger, Boyd Devereaux and John Pohl round out the likely possibilities for the third and fourth lines.

Defence:

Bryan McCabe	Tomas Kaberle
Pavel Kubina	Carlo Colaiacovo
Ian White	Hal Gill
Wade Belak

rookies/callups: Andrew Wozniewski, Staffan Kronwall

Defence is an area for the Leafs in which they have a number of name players with skill, but the whole is not quite the sum of its parts. Overall the team gave up 262 goals, and the defence must take much of the blame. While Bryan McCabe and Tomas Kaberle can move the puck and generate a high quality offence from the blueline, their defensive play is inconsistent at best and downright poor at the worst of times, a fact often lost in careful analysis of the Leafs' shortcomings. Pavel Kubina isn’t going to make as many highlight reels but is a more reliable overall defender. Their best young option is 24 year old Carlo Colaiacovo, an offensively-minded player who simply needs to get more responsibilities to show off his skills. Signed for the next three seasons, Colaiacovo should be an important part of the Toronto blueline for years. Ian White is a creative but small player who would be best utilized on special teams play, but won’t crack the top unit as long as Kaberle and McCabe are around. The towering Hal Gill is often criticized for high-profile mistakes but is still a solid top-six defenceman when he uses his .

Goaltending:

Andrew Raycroft
Vesa Toskala
Scott Clemmensen

So what is Andrew Raycroft to think? After being rewarded by the front office with a three-year deal, Raycroft suffered through an up-and-down season dealing with short-tempered fans and a crushing media presence. Then the Leafs make a deal with San Jose for Vesa Toskala, throwing the label of Toronto’s undisputed number one goalie completely up in the air and providing no piece of mind to Raycroft. Toskala is the older of the two (30 vs. 27) but has had great success in San Jose. Raycroft may start the season as the soft number one, but one would have to assume Toskala will certainly get the opportunity to win the job outright. Scott Clemmensen arrives from New Jersey to once again never get a chance to win a starting job in the NHL.

Outlook:

Standard anti-Leaf cynicism aside, there are some things to be excited about in Toronto. They have two lines that should consistently generate quality offence, providing a nice mix of veteran and youthful talent. And if not for a shootout win on the last day of the season by the Islanders over New Jersey, the Leafs would have made the playoffs and could very well have given their arch-rival Buffalo Sabres a solid run in the first round of the playoffs. However if the Leafs have improved just a bit, it is very likely teams just below and above them have also improved, so whether they can make that surge into the playoffs is still very much in doubt. They still appear to be significant steps below their division rivals in Buffalo and Ottawa, and the lack of quality depth may once again keep Toronto on the cusp of the Eastern playoff picture right down to the final week of the season.

Update 15Aug 3:15pm - Mark Bell will be serving jail time for last year's felony hit-and-run conviction. Word right now is that he'll serve after this season ends. Which means mid-April. How this will play out for Bell this year is obviously anyone's call (and I'm keeping this discussion strictly hockey-related) but Bell's career is in serious danger of being derailed permanently just as 12 months ago it seemed on the verge of taking off.

Your 2007-2008 Boston Bruins

(ok, I'll post in reverse-order of predicted finish. And I'm too impatient to figure out how to hide the bulk of the post, so here it is...)

Boston Bruins

2006-07 record: 35-41-6, 76 points. Fifth in division/thirteenth in conference.

Coach: Claude Julien
General Manager: Peter Chiarelli
Home arena: TD Banknorth Garden
Capacity: 17565

Overview:

The Boston Bruins have had a rough going over the past two years, both on and off the ice. It seems ages ago that they finished in first place in the Northeast division with 104 points, losing just 19 games. Yet that was only three seasons ago, the last season before the NHL lockout, and so much has changed with the Bruins that it hardly seems like the same organization. Since then many names have departed, including Brian Rolston, Andrew Raycroft, Mike Knuble, and of course Joe Thornton who, almost immediately upon leaving Boston, turned his career around from talented underachiever to league MVP. The Bruins’ front office has also been in shambles – longtime General Manager Harry Sinden stepped aside, and made room for Mike O’Connell who ended up making moves that alienated a team and their once-loyal fanbase in New England. In this decade alone they have seen no less than seven head coaches attempt to lead the Bruins franchise to their first Stanley Cup since 1972.

The 2007 Bruins should hold no illusions about a Cup run this season, but at the very least hope to establish consistency and a competitiveness not seen in the last few seasons. New General Manager Peter Chiarelli has been applying his stamp to the franchise over the past year, most recently hiring (another) new head coach Claude Julien, fresh off a late-season firing in New Jersey where he had led the Devils to another division title. There is no lack of talent on the Bruins roster, but will it be enough to climb the ever-tightening Eastern Conference and threaten for playoff position?

Forwards:

Marco Sturm	Marc Savard	Glen Murray
Peter Schaefer	Patrice Bergeron	Brandon Bochenski
P.J. Axelsson	Phil Kessel	Chuck Kobasew
Stanislav Chistov	Mark Mowers	Jeff Hoggan
Shawn Thornton	Jeremy Reich

This is a team that should score more goals than last season’s lame total of 219 goals; there simply is too much talent among the top six or seven forwards for that lack of production. For some reason center Marc Savard hasn’t received the respect he deserves in the NHL. His junior career with the Oshawa Generals was nothing short of stellar, twice leading the league in scoring while averaging over two points per game. He had trouble getting a fair shake in the NHL, in part because of his size (listed at 5’ 10”) and in part because of a less-than-perfect reputation for work-ethic. Yet in Calgary and more prominently in Atlanta he became one of the premier setup men in the league. When Boston signed him as a free agent last year it wasn’t deemed one of the bigger signings as many thought his association with the big Atlanta guns was the primary reason for his 97 point season, yet he proved doubters wrong yet again by notching 96 points for an otherwise offensively-challenged club. Glen Murray, who has seemingly been around forever but is only 34, is still a top sniper and a perfect fit alongside the crafty Savard. Marco Sturm is an underrated scoring winger who may be a better fit on Boston’s second line, now that two-way winger Peter Schaefer was acquired from Ottawa. Schaefer would provide defensive support for Savard and Murray to concentrate more on their offensive duties.

Patrice Bergeron is only 22 and signed for the next four years – he has nearly unlimited offensive potential and with the right linemates could easily surpass the 90 point barrier. Phil Kessel is a big wild card for Boston – two years ago he seemed to be the de facto eventual first overall pick for the 2006 draft, but his stock fell enough during his freshman year at Minnesota that he fell to the fifth slot where the Bruins were eager to nab him. Kessel does not belong in a third/checking line situation – he is a one-way player, but a potentially exceptional one. The Bruins would be well-served to bump either him or Bergeron to wing and insure that Kessel gets as much offensive opportunity as possible. Brandon Bochenski has had a brief yet unique career already; there’s never been a question of his scoring ability as in the 2005 pre-season pundits were predicting a big rookie season for the former North Dakota Sioux winger when, on a line in Ottawa with Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza, he led the NHL in pre-season goals. Yet he only stuck with Ottawa for 20 games and was dealt to Chicago, and then a year later was flipped to the Bruins where he buried 11 goals in just 31 games.

As with most teams, depth becomes a considerable issue after the top two lines, and the makeup of the third and fourth lines will likely be in flux for some time. P.J. Axelsson is a very valuable defensive forward who will be a regular fixture against opponents’ top lines and while the Bruins are short-handed. Chuck Kobasew is a stereotypical “great scorer if he can get the puck” player who will need to work every shift to earn his ice-time. Stan Chistov, Mark Mowers, Jeff Hoggan, and Jeremy Reich will be among those rotating in and out as depth forwards.

Defence:

Zdeno Chara	Aaron Ward
Dennis Wideman	Andrew Alberts
Andrew Ference	Mark Stuart
Bobby Allen

rookies/callups: Matt Lashoff

The Bruins defensive play last year was nothing short of awful, giving up 285 goals (only Philadelphia allowed more) and often leaving their goaltenders with very little support. Big-ticket free agent acquisition Zdeno Chara (5 years at $7.5 million per) did not provide the leadership and intimidating presence as advertised, and seemed to have trouble adjusting to being an undisputed number one defenseman. Chara improved late in the season and while he may never fully live up to the enormous sum of money thrown at him, the Bruins should expect him to become more of an overall presence this season.

Beyond Chara the Bruins defence is a mixed bag, one that has yet to play even half a season together as a single unit. Aaron Ward and Andrew Ference are the experienced veterans, Ward having won two Stanley Cups (Detroit and Carolina) while Ference has gone deep into the playoffs with Pittsburgh and Calgary. Both are relatively safe if unspectacular players. Mark Stuart and Dennis Wideman are where the upside can come from, even if they are very different types of players. Stuart is a strong stay-at-home type, the primary type of defenceman the Bruins need to keep the game simple and smartly play the body. Wideman is nearly the complete opposite - an outstanding offensive player who was a dominant force in his junior days with the London Knights, one who must be allowed to play his high-risk style for him to be effective. Look for Wideman to get ample opportunity as the top point man on the Boston powerplay. Andrew Alberts followed Bobby Allen at Boston College, and the two of them will round out the defense, Alberts the younger and more physical of the two.

Goaltending:

Manny Fernandez
Tim Thomas

It seems like ages ago that the Bruins were solid in the netminding department – the late 80s/early 90s saw the excellent tandem of Andy Moog and Reggie Lemelin tending goal for some powerful teams, but since then there have been a number of one-year wonders and castoffs (Blaine Lacher, Jim Carey, Andrew Raycroft) – nobody outside of Byron Dafoe has held down the top job for multiple seasons.

Last season’s goaltending duties were in the hands of Hannu Toivonen and Tim Thomas, Thomas initially being an afterthought but eventually became the clear number one in winning the job from Toivonen, who was eventually let go after the season in a deal with St. Louis. However this summer the Bruins dealt with the Minnesota Wild for Manny Fernandez. Fernandez is a mostly unknown commodity amongst NHL fans but is an outstanding goaltender who brings excellent puck-handling skills to the Boston crease.

Whether they now have a short-term plan or not may be debatable but for sure the Boston Bruins are counting on 20 year old Finnish goalie Tuukka Rask as being the future between the pipes for Boston. Rask came over from Toronto last year in a deal for Raycroft, leaving Fernandez and Thomas to battle for top status over the next two seasons until Rask is deemed NHL-ready.

Outlook:

A side result of Boston’s poor play defensively last year was an inability to get the puck to the forwards and keep pressure on the opposition; more than lack of quality forwards, this was the primary reason the Bruins were outscored by such a wide margin last season (289-219). Last season was one of constant change for Boston, so it is imperative that the Bruins’ defensive unit remains intact and develops – this is the biggest key to their season. The team has the offensive capability to make an impact in the East this year, and the tandem of Fernandez and Thomas in net should be good enough to keep them in most games. Look for the Bruins to be better this season, but it’s a tall order to expect them to reverse their goal differential enough to force them into the top eight this season – if everything goes right the Bruins could break .500 and threaten the 90 point barrier this year but they’ll need a complete devotion to team-wide defensive play to avoid missing the post-season for the third straight season.

NE division team previews

After finally finishing up some pre-season work for SportsGrumblings.com, I'll reproduce my Northeast division previews here. Please check out the work at SportsGrumblings over the next few weeks as every division will be previewed, and untold players will be dissected as to their worthiness for fantasy hockey (I myself worked on centers, some 140+ all told. From a high of 128 words on Jason Spezza to just 3 for Jeremy Roenick).

I'll be posting in order of my predicted finish:

Ottawa Senators
Buffalo Sabres
Montreal Canadiens
Toronto Maple Leafs
Boston Bruins

(I can't figure out how to create post summaries - hazards of doing this at work. Waiting to post later, since each team's summary is pretty long)

Road Apples NHL mock draft - 2007

Dispensing with the commentary, and ripe for abuse by probably 8:30 EDT tonight, I've thrown my hat in the ring - here is my 1st round mock NHL draft for 2007 in simple list form (top 5 selections / justifications can be found in the 5 previous posts here):

1. Chicago	Kyle Turris
2. Philadelphia	Jakub Voracek
3. Phoenix	Patrick Kane
4. Los Angeles	Karl Alzner
5. Washington	Alexei Chereponov
6. Edmonton	Sam Gagner
7. Columbus	James Van Riemsdyk
8. Boston	Angelo Esposito
9. St. Louis	Lars Eller
10. Florida	Keaton Ellerby
11. Carolina	Zach Hamill
12. Montreal	Mikael Backlund
13. Toronto	Logan Couture
14. Colorado	Ryan McDonagh
15. Edmonton (from NYI)	Tommy Cross
16. Anaheim (from TB)	Stefen Legein
17. NY Rangers	David Perron
18. Calgary	Brandon Sutter
19. Minnesota	Dana Tyrell
20. Pittsburgh	Brett MacLean
21. Phoenix (from DAL)	Luca Cunti
22. Montreal (from SJ)	Joakim Andersson
23. Philadelphia (from NAS)	Nicholas Petrecki
24. St. Louis (from ATL)	Max Pacioretty
25. Vancouver	Maxim Mayorov
26. St. Louis (from NJ via SJ)	Oscar Moller
27. Detroit	Kevin Shattenkirk
28. Washington (from BUF)	Colton Gillies
29. Ottawa	Jonathon Blum
30. Edmonton (from ANA)	Akim Aliu

In the mock draft pool I'm in, we have different values for the top 5: exact slot gets you 2 points, +/- 1 gets you 1 point. From pick 6 through 30, exact slot gets you 3 points, +/- 1 = 2, +/- 2 = 1. We'll see if any of us can crack 10.

Eastern Conference finals preview: Buffalo Sabres (1) vs. Ottawa Senators (4)

2007 EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

#1 Buffalo vs. #4 Ottawa
Thursday, May 10, 7:00 p.m. at Buffalo
Saturday, May 12, 8:00 p.m. at Buffalo
Monday, May 14, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
Wednesday, May 16, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
* Saturday, May 19, 2:00 p.m. at Buffalo
* Monday, May 21, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
* Wednesday, May 23, 7:00 p.m. at Buffalo

Series overview:

If the NHL powers-that-be wanted to cherry-pick two teams to feature the skill and excitement of the post-lockout era, they couldn't have done better than this – the 113 point Buffalo Sabres against the 105 point Ottawa Senators is the marquee match-up that neutral hockey fans have wanted to see all year; featuring the two best teams in the Eastern Conference facing off for the right to play for the Stanley Cup. There's a lot of intrigue and anticipation in advance of this meeting - will the two highest scoring teams in the league deliver an offensive explosion? Will the bad-blood from this season spill over into the playoffs and result in more free-for-alls like we saw from these two back in February? Can Ottawa exercise their playoff demons and finally become conference champions after years of unfulfilled expectations? Will Buffalo be able to turn up their game to the high standards they set for themselves in the regular season? Can either team legitimately be determined a favourite in this series?

Why Buffalo should win the series:

Going by nearly every number possible, Buffalo - until proven otherwise - is still the best team in hockey. There's no need to review all the stats again - simply, this team can score in bunches and from every line, an attack Ottawa has yet to come close to facing with the very top-heavy offenses featured by the Pittsburgh Penguins and New Jersey Devils. And while the Sabres didn't exactly fill the net during their first two rounds, the last two games against the New York Rangers were possibly the best they played thus far, leading to the impression that they're finding their "playoff legs" so to speak. The primary reason Buffalo found their game was due to their return to aggressive puck pursuit - they have to be willing to take risks and force the opposing defence to take hits in their own zone to clear the puck. By dictating the style of play to their advantage they not only create numerous quality scoring chances, they in turn prevent any play in their own zone, keeping their defence fresh.

Perhaps most encouraging to the team, and their fans, is that they have no injuries to speak of (in stark contrast to last season). What injuries they may eventually face they now can counter with unprecedented and unmatched depth, most notably standout rookie Drew Stafford who, with the return of spirited forward Paul Gaustad, finds himself in the press box strictly due to the numbers game. If Buffalo needs to turn to Stafford in this series, it can hardly be deemed a drop-off.

With all the talk about how explosive Buffalo's offence is, they actually do have one aspect of the team that is underrated. After last Friday's miracle finish in Buffalo (where Chris Drury scored with seven seconds left to tie the game at one, and Maxim Afinogenov won it in overtime) Ryan Miller was legitimately upset in the postgame interviews, saying he "let the team down" by letting in the late goal by Martin Straka. Just to review, it was the only goal he let in all game and it was a wicked wrist shot screened by his defenceman Brian Campbell.

Miller has arrived as a fearsome playoff goaltender who cannot be judged on statistics alone - his penchant for foiling breakaways may be unparalleled in the NHL and despite the eventual emergence of the Buffalo offence he was the primary reason the Sabres advanced past the New York Rangers in round two.

Why Buffalo should be afraid:

There is some sense that the Buffalo Sabres have peaked and are cracking a bit under either the intense physical play of the postseason or some phantom weight of being the favourites. I'm not sure how much stock to put in rather ethereal characteristics but there are a number of concrete concerns for the Sabres. If there has been any knock on Buffalo this year, and Ottawa themselves made reference to it earlier in the season, it is that they can be intimidated and forced off the puck. Ottawa is not afraid to play on the edge and should be expected to do so in this series, even at the risk of playing shorthanded (which against Buffalo might not be much of a risk - read on). If Buffalo is forced into playing more conservatively - shying away from contact rather than initiating it - they have a tendency to not play their fast transition game and also become pinned in their own zone, where their offensive attack usually starts. As good as the Sabres defence is in terms of moving the puck through three zones to their forwards and defending on the rush, they have shown weaknesses when faced with a strong forecheck and cycling system, often to the point of either bad giveaways or falling into penalty trouble.

It seems almost inexplicable that a team as powerful as Buffalo's could be so bad on the powerplay. Yet they've gone well past the point of "small sample size" to the realization that they have a flawed approach on the man-advantage. Rather than using their speed and skill, they have become predictable in their approach to set up the point men for shots which has resulted in cashing in on just over 15% of their opportunities in the postseason. With a skilled and aggressive Ottawa defence, the Buffalo coaching staff simply must redefine their approach on the power play or they will lose this series.

Why Ottawa should win the series:

Although Anaheim has made relatively short work of their opponents thus-far this playoff season, Ottawa can make a strong case for being the premier team through the first two rounds. They dispatched the Penguins and Devils with ease, growing stronger as the games went on. They're leading all teams with 3.3 goals per game in the postseason. Most encouraging to Ottawa fans, their best players are finally playing like it: Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley (who has become somewhat of a Sabre-killer, echoes of Michel Goulet from a past generation) have gelled and are playing as well as they have all season, terrorizing opposing defences. Heatley in particular scored eight goals in as many games against the Sabres this season and the Sabres must find a way to prevent him from getting comfortable in the Buffalo zone.

After losing Zdeno Chara to Boston in the off-season, it was expected by many that the Ottawa defence would take a hit, but after initial growing pains their defensive unit has become – if not well-known – one of the best in the NHL. In particular they’ve been doing an excellent job clogging offensive lanes and blocking opposing shots. Anton Volchenkov led the league in blocked shots during the regular season and is at it again in the playoffs with 39 thus far, with teammate Chris Phillips not far behind with 34. With the Senators' defence stepping up while on the penalty kill, don't be surprised to see a number of quality shorthanded chances for Ottawa.

Ottawa's power play has been deadly at a 22.7% rate in the playoffs thus far. Combine that with the Sabres' difficulties in shutting down the Rangers' talented power play unit and that could spell doom for Buffalo, who is at less than 80% on the penalty kill through two rounds.

Why Ottawa should be afraid:

For all the talk about how well the top line is playing, they still have demonstrated a lack of consistent scoring threats from their other lines. Unless their secondary scorers like Antoine Vermette, Mike Comrie, and Mike Fisher can at the very least put sustained pressure on the Buffalo defence, let alone score, the Senators could find themselves behind in this series quickly. They will also need to better the Sabres at even-strength play, a difficult task.

Goaltender Ray Emery has proven many doubters wrong this season, taking the number one job and establishing himself as a quality netminder. However, he has yet to face consistent pressure all year as he is about to against Buffalo - he must come to grips with the fact that he let in some less-than-stellar goals in last year's loss to Buffalo. He's a far better - and more confident - goalie now but how will he react to giving up a bad goal this season? (…and on everyone’s minds: will Ryan Miller be a willing fight partner should the teams choose to go that route?)

While distant playoff history is not a quality guide to determine the outcome of this or any series, it must nevertheless be said that the Ottawa franchise will feel pressure at least until they make it to the finals. It becomes imperative for Ottawa to take at least one of the first two games in Buffalo lest they start questioning themselves en route to another failed postseason.

Random useless but fun playoff facts:

The Sabres have won each of the three playoff meetings between the two clubs, each being a memorable series in its own right. In 1997 the teams went to overtime of game seven before Derek Plante ripped a slapshot off of Ron Tugnutt's glove to win the series. 1999 saw the first-place Senators get swept and the shine first began to fade from Alexei Yashin (zero points after finishing the season tied for second in goals with 44). Last season's tight five-game series featured four one-goal games and ended on Jason Pominville's shorthanded tally in overtime. Buffalo head coach Lindy Ruff has established himself as one of the better playoff coaches in recent memory, taking the Sabres to four trips to the conference finals in his nine years at the helm – add one Stanley Cup victory to that resume and he will rightfully take his place among the better coaches of all-time.

My pick:

One understated key for Buffalo might be how well top defenseman Henrik Tallinder handles Ottawa's top line. Especially at home, Buffalo can match Tallinder (with partner Toni Lydman) with the deadly Ottawa line, and add pressure with playoff revelation Dainius Zubrus who overall has easily been Buffalo's best forward in the postseason, not shying away from quality dirty work along the boards in all zones.

Buffalo needs to avoid the penalty box (perhaps on both ends, due to their weak power play) as their five-on-five play in the playoffs is as impressive as it was in the regular season, outscoring their opponents at nearly a two-to-one margin through 11 games.

As for who will eventually win this best-of-seven – nobody can predict. The epitome of a toss-up series, the end result may very well turn on a random bounce of the puck or unforeseen circumstance that forces otherwise inexperienced players into action. As touched upon above, Ottawa will win this series if they can establish a constant pressure in the Buffalo zone, leaving Buffalo scrambling to create offense and ending up in the penalty box, where the Senators will pick apart Buffalo. Buffalo will win this series if they quickly and effectively neutralize the Senators' top line and can keep them frustrated - Ottawa won't quite have the quality depth to keep up with all four Buffalo lines if the Sabres can consistently roll them (read: quickly move the puck out of the Buffalo zone and stay out of penalty trouble).

I’ve gone back and forth between thinking each team was going to win this series - no result (other than it only going four or five games) could be seen as unexpected; I would think that if Ottawa can take three of the first five, they will clinch it at home in game six. However in the end, I can’t go with anything other than this series going seven games and if that happens, I give it to the home team. Buffalo in seven.

Playoff preview: New Jersey Devils (2) vs. Ottawa Senators (5)

to be published at SportsBlurb.com

Schedule:

Thursday, April 26 7:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey
Saturday, April 28 8:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey VERSUS
Monday, April 30 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
Wednesday, May 2 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
*Saturday, May 5 8:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey VERSUS
*Monday, May 7 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
*Wednesday, May 9 7:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey

Series overview:

Seen in simplistic terms, this looks to be a series between an offensive giant vs. a defensive one. These two teams finished one win and two points apart in the standings but their styles are very different – how will the always defensively-conscious New Jersey Devils stymie the dangerous offensive attack (288 goals, second in NHL) of the Ottawa Senators while scoring enough to win?

Why New Jersey should win the series:

Despite their meager goal-scoring totals for the season, New Jersey has more offensive talent than their overall statistics show. With six goals in as many games (and leading all playoff scorers), emerging star Zach Parise showed why he's a good bet to be a steady 30-40 goal scorer for years to come. Relative old hand Scott Gomez leads the league with nine points, and Brian Rafalski, Patrick Elias, and Brian Gionta all are in the top-10 in points. Their front-end talent forms a swarming threat to opposing defences. New Jersey's power play clicked at a 25% rate against Tampa Bay. There's always the Martin Brodeur factor, as he had one of the greatest seasons of his career, but he’ll have to improve on his play over the first round, as Ottawa sports a much deeper attack than he faced from the Lightning.

Why New Jersey should be afraid:

Brodeur did not have a consistent first-round series against Tampa Bay – yes, his overall numbers were good but games two and three were marked by shaky goals that kept the Lightning in the series much longer than New Jersey would have liked. Defensively this team will still have to answer questions – they consistently hold teams to low goal totals but they will need to play out of character and bring a much more physical style of play to neutralize the dangerous Ottawa offence. The Devils should be able to keep the odd-man rushes to a minimum but if the Senators can develop a cycle in the New Jersey zone, the Devils will not have the brawn to defend against it for long. Finally, despite the front-end talent of New Jersey, the fact remains that they (in)famously play a shutdown style of hockey; opportunistic to a fault. With the talent and discipline in place it makes for successful seasons but the big challenge will be if Ottawa takes early leads – will New Jersey have the skill and mindset to change their style of play, and open up the attack more than they’re comfortable with? And if so, beyond the few big guns they do have, who will provide scoring support? Their lack of scoring depth often doesn’t hurt them, but against a premier opponent like Ottawa it could prove fatal.

And finally this late info: Patrick Elias will miss at least game one because of what is being called a cold - obviously very bad news for New Jersey.

Why Ottawa should win the series:

The importance of Ottawa’s first round defeat of the Pittsburgh Penguins cannot be overstated. Through the past decade, the franchise has had great regular season success but has never matched expectations in the post-season; qualifying for the playoffs in each of the past ten seasons (including six 100+ point seasons) Ottawa had only won five of 14 playoff series and advanced to the conference finals once (losing to New Jersey in 2003). Combining that pressure and the public’s fascination with the sudden rise and stability of the Penguins, the Senators were in many ways an afterthought in the first round. After a convincing five game beating, the Senators served notice that they are still a premier team. Their top players are well-known: Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and Captain Daniel Alfredsson, but general hockey fans may not be aware of the depth in this team - players like Mike Fisher and Chris Kelly make this team a true threat. Among Ottawa skaters, only Kelly (three) and Mike Comrie (two) had more than one even-strength goal against Pittsburgh. Finally, goalie Ray Emery took a beating last year for spotty play in the post-season – his play was poor, but he was an undeserved scapegoat. This season he emerged as the clear number one and should give his team confidence that he will back up the team after any breakdowns in front of him.

Why Ottawa should be afraid:

Having just complimented their lesser-known lights, their stars need to step up and play better to advance - Heatley and Spezza in particular. Each played more than 63 minutes of even-strength play during the Pittsburgh series and their line never scored a goal. It should go without saying that that performance won't be good enough to win against the tighter and more disciplined Devils. Despite the increased swagger the Sens should possess, there will still be talk about underachieving until they someday get to the Cup finals - only the team itself can quell such doubtless-annoying talk in the media and amongst the fans by winning, so in some ways the pressure remains.

Random useless but fun playoff facts:

Ottawa and New Jersey have met twice in the post-season, each team taking one series. The first meeting in 1998 saw the Senators pull a shocking first-round upset of the Devils – 14 wins separated the two in the standings but Ottawa prevailed in six low-scoring games. The 2003 meeting was in the conference finals where the Devils returned the favour in knocking off the President’s Trophy-winning Senators in a 3-2 seventh game.

My pick:

New Jersey had what could be called a typical year for them – top of the division, lowest goals-against in the conference, just (barely) enough offense to win. Ottawa hid under the radar for most of this season - they got off to a slow start, had goaltending troubles, adjusted to major off-season losses (most notably Zdeno Chara, Martin Havlat), but had a fantastic second-half.

Due much to the nature of the modern NHL, the overall parity has already given us a few match-ups in the early rounds that would have been worthy as Conference Finals, and this series could be another one. Nevertheless it looks from here that the Senators are just that much stronger in every zone. The Devils had difficulty with the rather one-dimensional Lightning while the Senators disposed of the Penguins with much more ease than many would have thought possible. The Devils had great success this season but don’t have the look of a tough playoff team. Whereas the Senators could have been accused of playing cautiously in the past, the early-season emergence of Ray Emery in part helped the team play with a confidence that could prove deadly to their opponents through the playoffs. Ottawa’s road to the Cup is proving to be very challenging which in the end could play to their benefit - it’s likely they’ll have to get through four 100+ point teams to win it all. Taking the Elias absence into account, the Senators will get at least one step further as they should defeat New Jersey in 5.