shame-faced Eastern review

On the verge of the playoffs, I thought I should get this out of the way now. Since I'd be sure to trumpet any/all great picks I might have made back in October, here's my (mostly) full mea culpa in reviewing how I thought the standings would look at the end of the year - all picks and quotes are mine from back on October 4th:

15. Washington Capitals

The cliché is that this team is Alexander Ovechkin and nobody else, and it’s not too far off from the truth...

Pretty much nailed this one (of course it's all downhill from here...) as by the end of a long year Ovechkin began to take out his frustrations on and off the ice. They need Nicklas Backstrom to make an impact next year and even then they'll need to work hard to find themselves competitive anytime soon.

14. New York Islanders

This franchise is running in place...

Going into the final weekend with two games to play, the Isles still have a shot at making the playoffs. Even though it's virtually impossible to quantify such a thing, the impact that Ted Nolan had on this team has to be considered. After a rocky and understandably pressure-filled start to the season, Rick DiPietro played great in goal until his concussed-ending to the season. Unfortunately I still believe this is a team that could fall right back next year with the impending free agency of a number of players including Ryan Smyth and Jason Blake.

13. Atlanta Thrashers

....But after [Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa, Kari Lehtonen, Slava Kozlov]the cupboard is dreadfully bare...

I admit this one looks bad but I stand by it - I think the Thrashers got a bit lucky this year, despite stretches (mostly early in the year) where they did look like a quality hockey team. Despite residing atop the Southeast division, they still were outscored this year and only have two more wins than division-mates Carolina. They're also recipients of 11 loser-points. At their best they play a good fast team game where their sum is greater than their parts. At their worst they float about and are not defensively conscious.

12. Pittsburgh Penguins

...They’re not there yet, but in a few years look out.

Heh - way off, but I'm far from alone with this pick. The team started slow but everything began to come together over the winter, culminating in a 100+ point season and an impending first-round clash with Ottawa that could be one of the more entertaining series in recent memory. Their timetable is about two years faster than I anticipated and if they can shore up the defence next year they could be even better.

11. Toronto Maple Leafs

...Mats Sundin is the best 70 point player in the league...

He still is (73 points in 74 games), and if he had jusssst a bit better linemates it may have made a difference. Sound familiar? Andrew Raycroft was mostly fine in net this year but defensive breakdowns. This pick was pretty close as The Leafs fall in that rather large middle-mediocre bunch in the East: not bad, not great.

10. Montreal Canadiens

...Will Sergei Samsonov ever be more than a 60 point player?

That was answered pretty emphatically this year, at least. The Habs suffered wild fluctuations this year - they were challenging Buffalo for first place in early winter, then dropped so far so fast after Cristobal Huet went down. Rookie Jaroslav Halak filled in nicely in the late-season run for the playoffs, but the lack of depth proved Montreal fit nicely in the mediocre pack of the East.

9. New York Rangers

...they have a prize in net with Henrik Lundqvist and he certainly could be the difference to vault them into that 6-8 range...

First of all, I do admit to cherry-picking some of my quotes (feel free to have a look at the original for the full truths...). Lundqvist was indeed the difference this year in being arguably the best goalie in the East over much of the final three months.

8. Tampa Bay Lightning

...[Vincent] Lecavalier and [Martin] St. Louis in particular need to elevate their games and justify superstar status...if [Marc] Denis excels, Tampa wins this division...

Done and done on the "Big Two" - both hit the 100 point mark this season. A classically front-loaded team - with a damn good front - their goaltending was indeed an issue all year as Marc Denis did not, in fact, excel and needs to be addressed for the future.

7. Boston Bruins

...A team that I think will show big improvement...I didn’t think the Joe Thornton trade was a complete disaster – the deal created payroll flexibility...

Way off. The Bruins did make a strong push in late winter only to fade pathetically over the final few weeks. My analysis of the Thornton trade proved faulty in part that the Bruins' front office acts like a six-year old in need of Ritalin - reacting too quickly to short-term results. They dealt away their main take in the deal - Brad Stuart - because they felt that they couldn't re-sign him, and dealt Brad Boyes to Boston due to a rough second year. Now comes word that players are disgruntled with coach Dave Lewis and it seems obvious that GM Peter Chiarelli's job is just beginning here...

6. New Jersey Devils

...Zach Parise will be a star... Martin Brodeur is past his peak...but they don’t have the defence to make a playoff run...

As far as the player predictions: almost...and not even close. Brodeur arguably has had his best season as a pro and is again the biggest factor in another division crown for the Devils. Allow GM Lou Lamoriello to introduce...himself...as coach. Will it be enough to give the team the spark he feels they need to succeed in the playoffs? And will he ever gain the trust of whomever he hires to replace him?

5. Carolina Hurricanes

...Out to prove that last year’s magical season was no fluke...

Giving fodder for anti-southern-hockey fans everywhere, the 'Canes proved to be a one-and-done story as they go from scoring 3.5 goals per game last season to just over 2.9 per game this year. Eric Staal in particular fell way back this year from 45-55-100 to 29-38-67.

4. Ottawa Senators

...Ottawa gets little respect for such an elite team, due to their high-profile lack of success in the playoffs but this team is still second to none in overall talent...

Second to Buffalo in the entire NHL in goals scored this year, their talent is immense. Last year's playoff scapegoat Ray Emery proved himself a solid number one goalie this year after Martin Gerber failed in his bid to grab that slot. Perhaps not being the top dog for the first time in years may play into the Senators' hands in the postseason...

[brief pause before pasting the next two....ok then...]

3. Florida Panthers

My Eastern surprise...This pick does hinge on Alex Auld...

My tendency to fall in love with the young/rebuilding teams failed me again (see also my future confession on Kings, Los Angeles with cross-references to Dan Cloutier) although in the close (weak) Southeast division just five more wins would have put them in first place. Auld suffered through a bad season before hanging up the pads for the season in early February, while - surprisingly to me - Eddie "Billion-Dollar" Belfour played quality goal down the stretch, giving Panthers fans faint hope that they could make the playoffs. I still like much of this team (Nathan Horton, Oli Jokinen, Jay Bouwmeester (scoring depth, goaltending) to give them the consistency) but there are/were too many holes they needed to make the top eight.

2. Philadelphia Flyers

[former GM] Bobby Clarke may make a move as he might not be comfortable with Robert Esche as his number one goalie...their stable of forwards will be fun to watch...The Flyers’ Achilles heel is still their defence...

A funny thing is that I didn't read my own writings here. Goaltending and defence were positively miserable from game one on and the team imploded following an early-season blowout at the hands of the Buffalo Sabres (9-1 pasting that could have easily been 14 or 15 goals given up). Their stable of young forwards either didn't take the next step forward (R. J. Umberger) or suffered injuries (Jeff Carter, Mike Richards). A complete disaster but yet in the end one I believe will be a blip in their history - good deadline trades helped to rebuild for the future and an impending lottery pick should help to bring the Flyers back to playoff contention next season.

1. Buffalo Sabres

four fast lines and a great power play, a defence that is six-deep and a potential franchise goalie...the time is now for the Sabres.

If you look past the once-again bizarre injury parade they suffered this year, everything else seemed to go right for Buffalo this season, storming out of the gate in winning their first ten games and leading the conference wire-to-wire en route to their first President's Trophy for finishing first overall. All that's left to do is bring home the big shiny trophy, because make no mistake: anything less will be a disappointment.


coming next: the Campbell review

Campbell conference review

15. Chicago Blackhawks

They had to overpay for Martin Havlat, who will give them a legitimate offensive threat – likely, their only one...this franchise is a long way from the excellent early 90s teams and is still a long way from earning respectability...

Havlat was injured early and indeed, there was no scoring depth which kept the Hawks down near the bottom virtually all year. Havlat has been quality while in the lineup, easily leading the team in every offensive stat despite playing less than 60 games. They got a little bump when Denis Savard took over the coaching reigns but need to wait on their growing stockpile of prospects to develop before they'll make any move up the standings.

14. Phoenix Coyotes

...There are good pieces here, but not a good team...

I'm not sure I even believe that first piece, it's possible I was just being nice. I find little to be excited or optimistic about for the near future of this franchise. At least they retired longtime Coyote legend Dale Hawerchuk's number this spring.

13. Columbus Blue Jackets

...So many questions – if everything goes right they have a chance to improve simply because of the weakness at the bottom of this conference...

And that kind of sums them up, doesn't it? Ending up as the best of the dregs of the West isn't much of a barometer - their offence was weak (only Rick Nash and Fred Modin potted 20 goals), Gilbert Brule (eight goals) proved he was not ready for the NHL and Sergei Fedorov would be better served as a third-line presence on a talented team, not as a shadow of a former-MVP on a struggling team.

12. St. Louis Blues

...Not all of those are great signings, but they could bring dividends later in the year in deadline deals. This is the beginning of a long rebuilding process...

I was referring to the Blues' off-season free-agent binge - and while the team started off in hideous fashion, they actually turned things around in mid-season and ended respectably in 10th place while beginning that rebuilding in grand fashion, jettisoning Bill Guerin and Keith Tkachuk for no less than four high draft picks over the next two drafts and also picking up talented forward Brad Boyes from Boston. NCAA stars T. J. Oshie and Erik Johnson should be playing in St. Louis next season.

11. Dallas Stars

... I don’t think the addition of Eric Lindros improves them at all, and I’m not convinced that Marty Turco is the answer anymore...with most of the Pacific teams improving I think it leaves Dallas behind...

My first (and not final) miss in the West - Lindros did nothing, Turco improved as the season progressed, but this is a team greater then the sum of their parts. From the Minnesota Wild playbook, they play a low-scoring style (only Jere Lehtinen and Mike Modano with 20 goals) and strong enough to be in the thick of the tight West. Is it enough to progress through the playoffs?

10. Vancouver Canucks

...Not sure where the goals will come from...[Roberto] Luongo will likely play close to 70 games and will need to be healthy all year for the Canucks to slip into the seventh or eighth spot. Hopefully they’ll wear their blue retro uniforms all year.

Goals? We don't need no stinkin' goals! Easily the lowest-scoring playoff team in the West, Luongo has been everything the Canucks could dream of when acquiring him from the Florida Panthers - a viable Hart Trophy candidate. On paper I may seem way off on this pick, but put even good goaltending in place of Luongo's stellar play this year and tenth place is likely exactly where they'd slot in. Their old-school uniforms are still the best in the league.

9. Minnesota Wild

...I like their top forwards: Brian Rolston, Pavol Demitra, Marian Gaborik...

Wow, what a reach. Who doesn't? Gaborik's 30 goals in less than 50 games is eye-catching. What I didn't account for was the Jacques Lemaire factor - letting the top few forwards loose while otherwise clamping down on everything in the building to the tune of a Jennings-trophy season. Despite (or perhaps because of) their often stultifying sense of play, they could prove very frustrating to playoff opponents.

8. Colorado Avalanche

...A team that could drop much lower than eighth if Jose Theodore falters. He’s a great unknown right now...Joe Sakic can still bring the goods...Wojtek Wolski will be an impact rookie

Not unknown anymore: he's essentially done. Peter Budaj should have been playing far earlier and this team could have made up the fingernail-thin difference between the nine and eight slots. Wolski has impressed with 21 goals but of course fellow youngster Paul Stastny took the league by storm over the final three months, giving fans a taste of the next generation of Stastnys.

7. Los Angeles Kings

...I love where this franchise is heading...I love when teams patiently draft and don’t overreach when they’re not ready to contend...Mostly, I love Anze Kopitar...This team is still very raw and still a few years from peaking. They could easily stumble...

My biggest mistake (see also my Florida Panthers projection...) although I cleverly gave myself some wiggle room there (read: cop out) in the pick. Easily the biggest reason for them never getting out of the gates this year was the horrible play of Dan Cloutier in goal; it's hard to overstate how his worst-in-the-NHL goaltending affected the Kings early, as all replacements offered up much better numbers playing behind the same team. The Kings still have a great core of young talent both in the NHL and arriving soon, they just need to take a hard objective look between the pipes and possibly eat that awful contract given to Cloutier.

6. Edmonton Oilers

...exciting Joffrey Lupul on board. Losing Chris Pronger and Jaroslav Spacek is a big deal...

Ha! Lupul has been nothing short of awful with 16 goals and a conference-worst -28 rating. Losing their two puck-moving defenceman has hurt, but no more than any other general listlessness the team has shown most of the year. Any spirit they did show was in Captain Canada Ryan Smyth who as you know now plies his trade (at least temporarily) 2000+ miles to the east on Long Island. Since that trade that crushed centenarians everywhere, their post-deadline play is nearly historic in ineptitude, in winning once (in a shootout) in their 18 games since Smyth's departure.

5. Anaheim Ducks

the rest of the top six forwards are young and skilled – Ryan Getzlaf, Chris Kunitz, Dustin Penner, Andy McDonald....My concerns are that beyond the top two defence (who will each approach 25 minutes per game, granted) they’re thin...

Each of the aforementioned forwards have at least 24 goals and have helped spread out the offence. Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer are each averaging over 27 minutes per game and the overwhelming majority of power-play time. When Pronger was on the injured list the Ducks became mortal. When healthy, they're a powerhouse but as advertised they can become thin quickly.

4. Detroit Red Wings

... Now they can move on [from Steve Yzerman] and focus on youth; Detroit has gradually reloaded and should be set for years...The only aged players on the team are still bringing it – the defence is anchored again by Nicklas Lidstrom and Mathieu Schneider... if [Dominik Hasek] is healthy (a big if) he’s still one of the very best...

Lidstrom and Schneider are third and fourth on the team in scoring behind young guns Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. Hasek has been, well, nearly classic Hasek. This team is an interesting mix of youth and age. A question is whether they are physically hardened for the playoffs...

3. Nashville Predators

...a legitimate challenger for the Cup...Nashville will make serious noise...

Leading the division for most of the year, everyone knew they'd be good. The difference this year is that they will be expected to advance deep into the playoffs, especially after getting the biggest deadline name in years in Peter Forsberg.

2. San Jose Sharks

The line of Mark Bell, Joe Thornton, and Jonathan Cheechoo could be the best in hockey...as good a combination of skill and strength as any in the league...

Starting the pick off with Mark Bell looks disastrous as he's been about as bad as any forward in the league. So the fact that the Sharks have more wins than anyone in the league save Buffalo should tell you about the depth here. Adding Bill Guerin at the deadline should make them playoff-ready.

1. Calgary Flames

Winning hockey’s toughest division last year took a toll on the offensively-challenged Flames...If [Alex] Tanguay can help Calgary have two decent scoring lines, it should be enough for them to not only win the division, but move through the playoffs...

Yes, I picked Calgary as the Cup favourites back in October. Again, on paper it doesn't look so great as they needed until the final hours to clinch the number eight spot. Tanguay suffered a slow start but picked it up to finish on a point-per-game pace, second behind a stellar season by Jarome Iginla. Calgary's problem is that they've turned into an imbalanced team, one that scores a good deal but it is isolated to a very few up front in Iginla, Tanguay, Daymond Langkow, Kristian Huselius, and Matthew Lombardi - almost exclusively. Miikka Kiprusoff has been approaching immortality as the season has progressed. Still, I hold onto this pick as the Flames can play the underdog role this year.

It's official: Buffalo to bid Adieu to the Aud

published at SportsBlurb.com and Sportingnews.com

First, a little video montage to accompany the upcoming nostalgia piece:

Last Saturday night I found myself watching the Toronto Maple Leafs on Carlton St. in Toronto - an event experienced by millions of NHL fans over much of the past century. Unfortunately the major difference I had last week compared to most was that instead of watching the Leafs inside the cozy confines of Maple Leaf Gardens, I was in a bar directly across the street - content to view the old marquee through the window while the Leafs were on every TV in the joint. The venerable building - home to 11 Stanley Cup champions - housed the Leafs from 1931 until 1999, but since progress has no patience a new home was built less than three kilometers away towards Lake Ontario: the Air Canada Centre.

Maple Leaf Gardens (as well as the Montreal Forum which closed three years previously) was only one of many grand old hockey arenas that this generation has seen shut down in the name of progress (or luxury boxes, or concessions, or parking, etc.). And now with only a few first-generation NHL arenas still in use (New York Islanders' and Rangers' Nassau Coliseum and Madison Square Garden respectively) - and The Igloo in Pittsburgh only to survive a few more years - the days of the unique arena are nearly gone.

News out of Buffalo this week was that the old Memorial Auditorium - home to the Buffalo Sabres from their inception in 1970 until 1996 (and the American Hockey League Buffalo Bisons for 30 years before the Sabres arrived) - would finally be torn down. And although the inevitability of death hovered around the Aud for much of the past decade, as it lay dormant across the parking lot from the shiny new HSBC Arena, for an entire generation of people who grew up in and around Western New York - including myself - this came as bittersweet news. The Aud was home to some of the most exciting hockey teams in Buffalo's history, including the great mid-70s teams that culminated in a trip to the finals in 1975. Buffalo’s Aud was unique in many ways, but most notably due to its smaller ice surface and often terrifyingly steep seating, which helped to foster one of the loudest and most difficult environments in the league.

So in memory of the soon-to-be-pile of rubble and fueled by a box of Double-Stuff Fudgeeo cookies, I present a personal short listing of the five greatest games in the history of the Buffalo Sabres at the old Aud:

“Mayday! Mayday! Mayday!” – The 1992-93 season was a strange one for the Sabres: although they were able to enjoy their first full season from Pat Lafontaine (finishing second in league scoring with 148 points) and his historic pairing with Alexander Mogilny (76 goals), the overall result was a mediocre 86 point finish and a first round date with the Boston Bruins, owners of the second-best record in the league. However, Buffalo picked the best time of the year to come alive, winning the first three games and looking for the shocking sweep at home. An absolutely electric crowd was temporarily silenced as the Bruins took a 5-2 lead, but Buffalo charged back (led by backup goaltender Dominik Hasek) to tie it in regulation. In overtime, physical winger Brad May cemented his immortality in Buffalo sports history with unquestionably the best ten seconds of his career – gaining a pass from Lafontaine, deking Ray Bourque into Lake Erie, and beating Andy Moog to clinch the series. The famous call of the goal also made a legend of longtime Sabres’ broadcaster Rick Jeanneret.

“The Fog Game” – 1975. The 1974-75 Buffalo Sabres became the fastest expansion franchise to reach the Stanley Cup Finals, making it in just their fifth year (since broken by the Florida Panthers in 1996). Riding the coattails of the famed French Connection line (Gilbert Perreault, Rick Martin, Rene Robert) – all of whom ended the year in the top-ten in league scoring – the Sabres scored 354 goals (with nine Sabres scoring over 20) and had little trouble with the Chicago Blackhawks and Montreal Canadiens to advance to the finals and a date with the Broad Street Bullies from Philadelphia. The Flyers were blessed with talent, and most notably the best goaltender in the league in Bernie Parent who led the Flyers to wins in the first two games. Game three was in The Aud and became historic on many counts: the late May date felt like August in Buffalo as the hot temperatures created a thick fog on the ice all night. During breaks, players had to skate around the ice to dissipate the pea soup hovering over the surface. During one of these breaks, veteran Buffalo center Jim Lorentz took sight of a bat that had been swooping over the crowd all night, and while on the bench took his stick and with one swing knocked it out of the air. And oh, by the way: in overtime with the score tied at two, Rene Robert gathered the puck on his right wing and drove a slapshot by Parent to win the game for Buffalo. As a five-year old burgeoning fan sitting high up in the oranges, I was hooked.

Sabres destroy the Soviet Wings – 1976. It’s hard to impart upon younger fans how different this era is in terms of international competition. In the 1970s the Russians were the great unknown – the famed 1972 Summit Series between Canada and Russia brought the previously-hidden skills of the Russians to a much wider audience, but it was fleeting. The Russians held a series against the World Hockey Association two years later, and then began sending teams to North America to face off in games against NHL squads. These were no ordinary exhibitions – today these games would be mildly competitive at best but 30 years ago it was imperative to give every effort in beating the “Evil Empire.” The Soviet Wings and Red Army teams were sent on an eight-game tour and after three games (against the Rangers, Penguins, and Canadiens) had won two and tied one before the Wings pulled into Buffalo on January 4^th. The crowd at the Aud was thunderous throughout the game, firing up the Sabres who intimidated the Wings all night. The high-flying Sabres were too much for the Soviets who were outshot 46-21 en route to a 12-6 pasting by Buffalo, the worst international defeat by any Soviet team up until then. Footnote: the Sabres were given an ovation the next night for their big win over the Soviets….by Canadiens fans in Montreal.

Gretzky gets the goal record – 1982. Wayne Gretzky was in his third NHL season, and revolutionizing the sport. Having come off a season where – at age 20 – he broke the single-season point mark with 164, he was blowing by his previous numbers in the winter of 1981-82 and was destined to break Phil Esposito’s goal scoring mark of 76 goals – it was just a matter of when. On February 24^th of 1982, the Oilers were in Buffalo, Gretzky was tied with Esposito, and the entire hockey world had been tracking his every move for weeks. With Bert Reynolds and Goldie Hawn in the front row (filming the movie “Best Friends”), Esposito in the house, and a crowd buzzing from the opening warm-ups, hometown hero Gilbert Perreault was the early hero with a hattrick – showing the world that he still had the skills that had made him the first pick in 1970. The Great One was held goal-less through two periods but early in the third he got the puck and with a burst of speed took the puck into the Buffalo zone and beat Sabres’ goaltender Don Edwards. The Aud erupted as if the Sabres had won the Cup in a joyous celebration of hockey history (Gretzky would go on to score two more in the third to get a hattrick of his own).

Glen Sonmor loses his mind, King Kong nets a hattrick – 1979. OK, this is a purely personal choice: I was in the lower blues (they were good seats) for this one. Glen Sonmor was in his first season coaching the Minnesota North Stars after three controversial years coaching in the old WHA with the infamous Minnesota Fighting Saints and Birmingham Bulls (in his last year in Birmingham four of his players exceeded 240 penalty minutes. Each in less than 60 games.). My memory is a little hazy as to the exact order of incidents so I’ll just list them: bruising defenceman Jerry Korab scores not just one goal, but three. North Stars’ goalie Gary Edwards crushes Danny Gare behind the net, precipitating a bench-clearing brawl. Minnesota coach Glen Sonmor makes a valiant effort to scale the glass behind the North Stars’ bench to attack an unruly Sabres’ fan. Wholesome fun for the entire family as the Sabres rout the visiting Stars.

Good - Gone - Dead. R.I.P. Rheostatics

Much of my recent silence has been due to my traveling of late, focused mostly on attending the final show of the great Rheostatics at Massey Hall in Toronto, last friday (March 30th). Pictures here.

not-hockey-related? seemingly. Please review this brief clip of the most-Canadian of all bands doing their old tribute to Wendel Clark:



at the close of nearly 3 1/2 hours of music, they performed their last-ever song as the Rheostatics in the center aisle with one guitar (and a pyramid of fans behind them):



Thanks to the band for 20+ years of the most independent of Canadian Shield Rock.

and to bring this back to a hockey focus (and more soon, promise) - read Bidini's hockey books (read 'em all, but here are the relevant ones):














Tropic Of Hockey













The Best Game You Can Name

Thomas Vanek is good

Back in February when Thomas Vanek's linemate Maxim Afinogenov was lost for the regular season with a broken wrist, I wondered what kind of affect this would have on Vanek, who was having a breakout season.

In the 17 games since Max's injury, Vanek has 18 points and has been +11 - shooting him up to +41 for the year, which currently leads the league.

I guess he's done alright.

I suck

This is simply a posting to state that i do, in fact, suck.

Caught up in a lot of stuff lately (nothing bad) and haven't had a chance to stay on top of much in the hockey world, other than BC making it to the Frozen Four again. And BU losing.

How about this: last night going into the third period the Oshawa Generals were down 6-2 to the Kingston Frontenacs (on the road) in game 2 of their opening round playoff series.

The Gens won 7-6. John Tavares had 5 points. He, in fact, does not suck.

Shootout leaders

among all players who have taken at least four shots in shootouts this year (an arbitrary cutoff to be sure, but the number of players increases drastically at three or less), these are the most deadly:

			shots	goals	shot %	winners*
PETTERI NUMMELIN	MIN	D	7	6	85.7	1
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	ATL	L	9	7	77.8	5
BRENDAN MORRISON	VAN	C	8	6	75	0
MARCEL HOSSA	NYR	L	4	3	75	3
LADISLAV NAGY	DAL	L	4	3	75	3
ALES KOTALIK	BUF	R	7	5	71.4	4
PHIL KESSEL	BOS	C	6	4	66.7	4
MARIAN HOSSA	ATL	R	8	5	62.5	1
PAUL KARIYA	NSH	L	10	6	60	1
WOJTEK WOLSKI	COL	L	5	3	60	0
ALEXANDER RADULOV	NSH	R	5	3	60	2

*"winners" are simply goals that decide (win) the game.

(i still hate the shootout. just acknowledging that it is - sadly - an important aspect of the regular season game.)

NCAA hockey pool

Go over to the excellent HockeyDirt.com for an NCAA hockey pool they're sponsoring - winner to get a Ballistik composite hockey stick.

Deadline is noon this Friday (the 23rd).

looking at the "bubble teams"

to be published at SportsBlurb.com and sportingnews.com

With all the talk this past week about the NCAA basketball tournament and "teams on the bubble" it seems like a good time to take a look at the NHL's top bubble teams and their chances of making the postseason. In the Western Conference it was just one month ago when the playoff hopes for the Colorado Avalanche looked hopeless, which itself is a story: since the franchise move from Quebec in 1995 the team has never missed the playoffs, and has won two Stanley Cups in that time. So on February 15th the Avalanche sat in eleventh place with a middling 27-25-4 record while the Calgary Flames – the same Flames who were a popular pick by many to come out of the west this year, including the staff at SportsBlurb.com (note my omission of the word "experts"...) - were 30-19-8 and in a three-way dogfight for first place in the Northwest division.

Fast-forward to today: after gaining eight wins and a loser-point (overtime loss) in their last nine, suddenly the Avs are only four points behind those same heavily-favoured Flames, with ten games remaining for each team including two head-to-head matchups.

What accounts for the sudden turnaround? For one thing, the Avalanche have shown an offensive depth previously lacking - if we look at statistics for just the last month, the Avalanche have four players in the top 15 of league scoring, with rookie phenom Paul Stastny third with 20 points while putting together a rookie-record 20-game point scoring streak (aside: with the throwback jerseys all the rage this year, why couldn’t the Avalanche just wear the Bleu et Blanc of the Quebec Nordiques for a few games? Just once I’d like to see “Stastny” surrounded by the fleur de lys again…). Andrew Brunette has 18 points in the past month, en route to setting career highs in goals and points. Brunette’s linemate Joe Sakic is continuing to put up numbers as if he were 27 rather than 37 – at this pace he still has an outside shot at hitting 100 points. Milan Hejduk has also regained his scoring touch with 17 points this past month.

Also not to be discounted is the long-awaited commitment to Peter Budaj in goal. In Budaj's past ten games in the Colorado crease the Avalanche have gained at least one point. The Jose Theodore experiment is and has been an unmitigated disaster. The statistical difference between the team's two goaltenders is so great (goals against average: 2.72 vs. 3.41. Save percentage: .906 vs. .888) that getting rid of Theodore for next year would be the prudent option, if it weren't nearly impossible with the albatross of his US$6million salary (and $5.3million cap hit) hanging over their heads for 2007-08.

Calgary hasn't helped their cause and could have put this “race” away long ago. Even though they're not in what could be called a terrible slump (7-6-2 since mid-February), they've been treading water. The defending Vezina Trophy winner Miikka Kiprusoff has not been his usual stone wall either, giving up 3.23 goals per game in the past month.

Four points and ten games for the right to make the playoffs. Colorado now controls their own destiny with two April games against Calgary, including one game in Denver on the final night of the season, April 8^th. Let’s hope that game means something.


Over in the East, although the race is making for exciting scoreboard-watching, do any teams seem ready to grab those elusive bottom slots for the playoffs? Only four points separate the sixth-place Tampa Bay Lightning from the eleventh-place Montreal Canadiens. Yet all six teams in the mix (including the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes - currently with tenuous holds on the seventh and eighth spots – along with the New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs) seemingly have major flaws, and it has been fashionable (not to mention easy) to point out why each team won't make the playoffs, rather than why they might. With roughly ten games for each team to play and such a fine line between the playoffs and an early vacation, every game counts from here on out. The Carolina Hurricanes are in a dogfight to even be in a position to defend their title, and surprisingly with Cam Ward down with an injury John Grahame of all people has stepped up and held the fort, with a sub-2.00 goals-against average over the past month. Frankly, Grahame is the sole reason the Canes are in the race right now. If you discount the seven-spot they put on New Jersey last weekend, the Hurricanes have only scored four goals in a game once in the past month (a 4-1 win in Atlanta on February 24th). They need to find their offence in a hurry if they want to hold off the teams breathing down their neck.

Surprisingly for a New York team, it seems that the Rangers have been quietly making a case as the most deserving of one of the open slots in the East's final eight. When Brendan Shanahan went down with a concussion against Philadelphia on February 17th the Rangers' already rather thin offence looked that much worse, and their postseason hopes dashed. Yet since that game against the Flyers, New York has gone 8-3-4 (all three losses were by one goal) including two shootout losses. And seemingly nobody has noticed the run that goaltender Henrik Lundqvist has been on, and how his play has pushed the Rangers for the past month: a 1.79 goals-against and a .932 save percentage.

One acquisition that cannot be discounted was the trade for French Canada’s favourite player: Sean Avery. Although his statistics alone can’t account for the shift in the Rangers’ play, since Avery’s arrival the Rangers have taken on an edge that they previously didn’t have (although 13 points in 20 games is more than respectable for The Agitator). And as loathsome as his act can be at times, there can be no doubt that opposing teams take note of when Avery is on the ice.

On paper the situation still looks dicey - the Rangers signed 31-year old veteran defenceman Jason Strudwick on Monday out of the Swiss-A League, but with injuries piling up signing a steady NHL veteran is a good move for the Rangers. And with the imminent return of such talents as Shanahan, Martin Straka, and Marcel Hossa from injuries the Rangers’ fate is in their own hands as they make a push to not only make the playoffs, but possibly finish as high as sixth.

Why Pominville's success could mean Buffalo saying goodbye to Drury.

Hockey fans (especially Buffalo Sabres fans) are aware of the big dilemma the Sabres front office will have in this off-season, with both Chris Drury and Daniel Briere to be unrestricted free agents and in line for big paydays. If a choice has to be made, and it certainly seems like it will be, how do you choose? The electricity of Daniel Briere, or the leadership and intangibles (not to mention a likely 40 goals) of Chris Drury?

With Jason Pominville burying two more even strength goals Friday night in Tampa, giving him a league-leading 27 on the year (tied with Vincent Lecavalier), is it possible that his success this year will help steer the Sabres into leaning more towards Daniel Briere? Without Briere, Pominville would no longer have his main set-up guy. Re-signing Briere might be the equivalent of retaining two players rather than just one.

Just a thought.

ESG leaders

Your even-strength goal leaders as of March 16th. I keep mentioning ESP because I think it really does give a deeper look at true goal-scoring talent in the league. As with any counting stat, you're only going to get good totals by getting more opportunities. I haven't looked at the numbers yet but you'd have to figure that if some of these guys got more time on the power play they'd be closer to the overall league lead in goals. Jason Pominville, for example, is 12th on the Sabres in average PP-time per game at 2:30 per. Contrast that with the 4:58 per that Daniel Briere is getting.

David Legwand is another vastly underrated player having a terrific breakout season - he's only getting an average of 1:53 on the power play each game.

Zach Parise is another personal favourite - he's looking every bit like a future 40 goal scorer in this league.

RK	Player	Team	Pos	GP	ESG	PPG	SHG
1	ALEX OVECHKIN	WSH	L	71	26	15	0
2	VINNY LECAVALIER	TBL	C	71	25	16	5
3	JASON POMINVILLE	BUF	R	70	25	2	2
4	DANY HEATLEY	OTT	R	71	24	15	3
5	BILL GUERIN	SJS	R	69	24	8	0
6	ALEXANDER FROLOV	LAK	L	71	23	10	1
7	SIMON GAGNE	PHI	L	68	23	12	2
8	RAY WHITNEY	CAR	L	71	22	5	0
9	JASON BLAKE	NYI	L	70	22	13	0
10	DANIEL BRIERE	BUF	C	69	21	8	0
11	MARTIN ST. LOUIS	TBL	R	71	21	14	4
12	JAROME IGINLA	CGY	R	60	21	12	1
13	THOMAS VANEK	BUF	L	70	21	13	0
14	MARIAN HOSSA	ATL	R	72	21	16	3
15	OLLI JOKINEN	FLA	C	71	21	9	1
16	DAVID LEGWAND	NSH	C	68	21	1	1
17	HENRIK ZETTERBERG	DET	L	63	21	11	1
18	ILYA KOVALCHUK	ATL	L	72	21	16	0
19	ZACH PARISE	NJD	C	71	21	7	0
20	MATS SUNDIN	TOR	C	63	20	6	1

who's your MVP?

to be published at SportsBlurb.com and Sportingnews.com - March14th.

Quick quiz: how many goaltenders have won the NHL’s Hart Trophy?

It doesn’t happen often. Similar to pitchers winning the MVP in baseball, a goalie will seem to have more of an opening to win the Hart if there's no overwhelming favourite in the "normal" pool of players. Over the past decade it has happened a few times, which may mean newer NHL fans may not realize just how infrequently it happens. A likely reason that we’ve seen more goalies as Hart finalists of late is the dearth of scoring over the past ten-plus years. The most recent – Montreal’s Jose Theodore in 2002 - just edged out Calgary's Jarome Iginla on a tie-breaker (Theodore had more first-place votes). Dominik Hasek's back-to-back Hart trophies with the Buffalo Sabres in 1997-1998 came in the lowest-scoring era in the NHL since the late 1950s (with the average goals-per-game dipping below 5.3 for the first time since 1956).

This isn’t meant to take anything away from those seasons by Hasek and Theodore – they were worthy winners – but it’s hard not to think that had the NHL had an era of scoring like the early 80s, where getting 112 points might get you no higher than eighth in the league (Bobby Smith, Minnesota – 1982), that an offensive player wouldn’t have won in at least one of those seasons.

So even if we all remember the last decade, the gap before Hasek to the previous goalie to win the Hart goes way back - 35 years, to be exact - to Montreal's legendary Jacques Plante in 1962. The 1950s saw two goalies win the Hart, with the Chicago Blackhawks’ Al Rollins taking it in 1954 and the New York Rangers’ Chuck Rayner winning in 1950. Before that you have to go back to 1929 and the old New York Americans when Roy "Shrimp" Worters was the winner.

And that's it. Only seven times in 82 years has the award been given to a goaltender. Overall the award winners are highly skewed to forwards, especially centers: 63 times the winner has been a forward, with 42 of them being centers. Only 12 defencemen have brought home the trophy.

With only a few weeks left in the season, we can start to compile a short-list of Hart candidates. I've mentioned it before that I don't put much - if any - stock in who wins end-of-season awards, however it's still fascinating to talk about (that seeming dichotomy can make sense if you believe, as I do, that winning an award obviously doesn't automatically make the player the best). So having said that...who's your MVP?

I’ve created two lists of who I think are worthy candidates, dividing into A and B levels. My A-level candidates have the best chance of walking away with the Hart Trophy in June; in other words I think these will be the finalists. This doesn't necessarily correlate to "best" - as any voted-upon award, it's all subjective, but given the press generated by these players and/or the markets they play in, I'm confident this year's MVP will come from this group:

Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins. Any and all accolades thrown Crosby's way are in every way deserved. Age shouldn’t be a factor in winning the Hart, but the fact that he's only 19 still has to in some way play into it. He has led the league in scoring for virtually the entire season and catapulted a young and hopeful Penguins team into the upper echelon of the East while still in his teen years. Comparisons to the one and only Wayne Gretzky are apt. Crosby is the best player in the NHL.

Martin Brodeur, New Jersey Devils. I’ll admit it: perhaps it has been my iconoclastic nature over the years, but for various reasons I'd thought Brodeur's status was slightly over-inflated. I thought him to be as much a product of New Jersey’s system as a singular talent. No longer. Statistically this is shaping up to be his best season but simply watching his stellar positional play this year leaves one with little doubt that Brodeur is as good as or better than he's ever been. He carried the traditionally low-scoring Devils through the first half of the season until the team seemed to get better around him over the past few months and now look as dangerous as any team in the East. A scary thought for fans of Buffalo/Ottawa/Tampa/Pittsburgh, etc.

Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks. The trade that brought Luongo to Vancouver from the hockey wasteland of southern Florida brought enormous pressure to Luongo, and he has responded with arguably his best season. The Canucks haven't had an extensive history of top-of-the-league goaltending but with Luongo they finally have that; he has led the low-scoring Canucks to the top of their division and given their fans legitimate contending hopes.

Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning. Vinny has finally arrived. Sure, he’s always been a good player, but has never really lived up to his billing as the top-overall pick in 1998. This season he’s already shattered his individual highs for goals and assists, is leading the league in goals with 46, and of late has been giving Crosby a mild push for the scoring title. Lecavalier has vaulted Tampa Bay back into the mix for the Southeast division title.

My B-level candidates are players that won't win the award for a host of reasons, but take a backseat to none of the players listed above:

Daniel Briere, Buffalo Sabres. Leading the best team in the East all year, he gets the bulk of his scoring at even-strength off the powerful Buffalo rush. Briere often sets the pace for the Sabres' uptempo game and has countless late-game and shootout goals, giving him the moniker in Buffalo as "Cookie Monster" (as in response to announcer Rick Jeanneret’s famed goal call: "top shelf where momma hides the cookies!!!")

Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay Lightning. I'm not sure fans realize how good of a season the former Hart winner is having. Aside from battling teammate Lecavalier for the silver medal in the Art Ross race, for much of the season he's been leading the league in even-strength scoring as well as shorthanded points.

Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames. Back in November I trumpeted Iginla in this space as a potential MVP candidate, and I maintain that the only thing keeping him from being one of the finalists this spring is his missing 11 games. Having played only 58 games to date, he's fourth in the league in even-strength points with 51 - ahead of such luminaries as Crosby, Marian Hossa, Dany Heatley, and Alex Ovechkin. He has been and continues to be *the* marked man for Calgary and yet has led the team all year.

Chris Pronger, Anaheim Ducks. When he was acquired from Edmonton in the off-season he was expected to give Anaheim strength on defence (along with Scott Niedermayer) unparalleled in the league. The fact that the team led the West until his injury and then fell apart in his absence speaks volumes to his skill and the team's reliance on him for success.

Marian Hossa, Atlanta Thrashers. Hossa remains an underrated talent in the league, despite his top-five scoring status and fourth straight season with more than 35 goals. Hossa’s +19 rating is particularly impressive on a team that gives up more goals than they score.

Teemu Selanne, Anaheim Ducks. Teemu has found new life over the last two years in Anaheim and become a veteran leader on a team with an otherwise youth-laden forward attack. This year’s 41 goals and counting is his second-straight 40 goal season, and his +22 rating is in the league’s top-20.

Gretzky's first pro goal - Indianapolis Racers

scored on Edmonton's Dave Dryden.




I'm on a big WHA kick of late. Thanks to MyHockeyTV for all the videos.

MVP race wide-open

I know I've mentioned it before (probably too many times) but I don't put much - if any - stock in who wins end-of-season awards. However, it's still interesting to talk about (that seeming dichotomy can make sense if you believe, as i do, that winning an award doesn't automatically make the player the best *whatever*). So this year...who's your MVP? There's a good chance it's going to a goalie this year, with Roberto Luongo and Martin Brodeur putting up not just the numbers but almost willing their teams to the top of their divisions (and now New Jersey is pushing Buffalo for tops in the East). I picked Sidney Crosby to win it in the preseason, and I'm sticking with him as the first to 100 points and just dominating games as no 19-year old has since #99 patrolled Northlands back in 1979.

I'll be writing more about these guys later, but here are two quick lists I whipped up.

A-level candidates: the best chance of walking away with the Hart Trophy in June. This doesn't necessarily correlate to "best" - as any voted-upon award, it's all subjective. Given the press generated by these players and/or the markets they play in, I'm confident this year's MVP will come from this group:


Roberto Luongo
Martin Brodeur
Sidney Crosby
Vincent Lecavalier


B-level candidates: players that won't win it for a host of reasons (competition from teammates, lack of press, etc.), but take a backseat to none of the above players:

Daniel Briere
Martin St. Louis
Jarome Iginla
Chris Pronger
Marian Hossa
Teemu Selanne

I'm probably missing some but these are the first to pop into my head.


Interesting fact: only seven times in 82 years has the award been given to a goaltender. Over half the winners have been centers. The award winners overall belong to a highly exclusive group as you can see by the repeat winners over the years. Here's how the winners break down positionally:

C: 42 (nine by Wayne Gretzky, three each Mario Lemieux, Bobby Clarke, Howie Morenz)
LW: 6 (none since Bobby Hull's back-to-back wins in 1965-1966)
RW: 15 (six by Gordie Howe)
D: 12 (four by Eddie Shore, three by Bobby Orr)
G: 7

Odds n Sods

terribly busy week for me, but a few brief notes:

"Hope grows dim for Connolly’s return" - Many Sabres fans are using this as ammo against Darcy Regier, but Buffalo hasn't exactly missed Tim Connolly this year. While I don't disagree with the idea that signing him to a risky 3-year deal was a bad idea, this setback is due to his leg stress fracture, not any concussion-related symptoms.

Chris Simon's Paul Bunyan impression. You've probably seen it by now, but it truly is unreal. The NHL needs to start throwing guys out of the league. No more of this 3-game suspension garbage, especially for no-talent ass-clowns whose absence would barely be felt (I'll admit Simon has, or had, some skills - but that's completely irrelevant). They need to throw a guy out for a year or more, and not allow the team any re-compensation with regards to the salary cap. Make these offenders essentially blacklisted. And none of this "oh, [Ryan] Hollweg could have gotten up quicker...he wasn't that hurt." Again: irrelevant. If Simon's stick is two inches lower we've got a tracheotomy. Two inches higher and loss of eye/nose whatever. Disgusting.

I also found it amusing/amazing that in looking at NHL.com's stat page there's a picture of 19-year old Sidney Crosby leading the league with 99 points, then 73-year old Dominik Hasek once again leading the league in goals-against. Detroit hasn't gotten enough credit for signing him; a lot of us thought he was done.

The growing revolt against deadline deals

to be published at SportsBlurb.com and SportingNews.com

We’re just over a week past the NHL’s trading deadline, and almost as soon as all the deals were finally reported came the latest wave of complaints about a trend that has become the most watched aspect of deadline week: the acquisition of the so-called "rental player.” A “rental player” refers to an impending unrestricted free agent who is dealt away with the general thinking that it’s better for a team to get some value for him now rather than risk losing the player altogether at the end of the season, and getting nothing. This year’s deadline saw no shortage of this scenario - in the cases of such big names as Keith Tkachuk, Bill Guerin, Todd Bertuzzi, and Ryan Smyth, their former teams gave up the name player for the final six weeks of the regular season in exchange for a potential future bonanza in the guise of draft picks and/or prospects.

The nature of the complaints isn’t necessarily with the deals themselves, but rather with some general notion that the entire process is unseemly – that some players will inevitably be welcomed back with open arms to their original teams and re-sign with them as early as July 1st, when open season on free agents begins. Two notable cases like this occurred last season with the eventual Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes, who acquired both Doug Weight from the St. Louis Blues and Mark Recchi from the Pittsburgh Penguins. Weight played just 23 regular season games for Carolina (along with four rounds of the playoffs) then re-signed a multi-year contract with the Blues after the season. Recchi (20 regular season games with Carolina) is now back with the Penguins in similar fashion.

There's an argument gaining steam among some fans and media members that the league needs to step in and create some sort of rule to prevent these types of tacit agreements, where Team A might say “we’re trading you to Team B where you have a good chance at winning the Cup, but we’re planning on re-signing you as soon as the season ends.” One specific suggestion that is making the rounds and was even discussed briefly last Saturday on CBC's Hockey Night In Canada was for the league to go so far as to make a rule that would prevent impending unrestricted free agents who are dealt at the deadline from re-signing with their original teams for a period of one year.

Absurd.

The reasons for why this is a bad idea are numerous, but here are a few:

1) The completely arbitrary nature of such an arrangement. Where would the cutoff lie? Deadline day? A week before? What happens if next year the Toronto Maple Leafs feel it's truly in their best interest to deal Mats Sundin on January 1st, well over a month before the trading deadline. Would that qualify as a deadline deal? Who decides?

2) With one of the negative aspects of modern pro sports being the fact that salaries are likely the most important part of constructing a team’s roster, it becomes necessary for teams to feel the need to deal away a hometown hero before he enters unrestricted free agency. So why should the league then take away that team's complimentary ability to take advantage of the situation, thereby improving their long-term future? In fact, it’s not a bad strategy for a lower-echelon team to sign or trade for a big-ticket player with a one-year deal, with every intent of dealing him at the deadline. And conversely, if a contending team makes the decision that giving up a large package of futures for a short-term “rental” gives them a legitimate shot at the playoffs or the Cup, why take that opportunity away from them?

The nebulous nature of such a suggestion makes it completely unworkable. Especially when you know that New Jersey Devils’ GM Lou Lamoriello will find (or create) some loophole to his advantage, perhaps claiming his team follows the Julian Calendar.

If the league really wants to make an improvement that is not nearly as arbitrary, here's a simple solution: move the trading deadline back to the All-Star break. As it stands now, the trading deadline occurs far too late in the year - after roughly 75% of the regular season has been played. Most teams had only 20 games left on their schedule after the deadline. Contrast that with deadlines in Major League Baseball (after 65% of the schedule, at the end of July) or the NFL (38% - after just six games) and it seems even worse. If the deadline were moved back to a time say just after the all-star break in January, teams would be less-apt to sell off talent as with less of the schedule having been played, more teams are by definition still in the playoff hunt.

In the end, though, I don’t mind things the way they are. A smart club that has fallen out of contention will realize that selling off a potentially high-priced asset can give the team far more success in the long run than re-signing the one player that will take up a significant percentage of the team’s salary cap. For example, see the St. Louis Blues trade of Keith Tkachuk to Atlanta for Glen Metropolit and three draft picks. Metropolit was a throw-in, but the picks are the real value. The Blues aren’t going anywhere with Tkachuk, and are likely two to three years from competing. By stockpiling picks, they stand a good chance of developing a number of young players who will hopefully mature together. Now all St. Louis has to do is draft wisely…

Too many times the deadline is seen as powerful clubs taking advantage of the weaker ones and preying on them for talent, but it’s not the powerful clubs that win these deals in the end – it’s the smart ones.

OHL update

1) The OHL hosts the 2008 Memorial Cup - presentations are underway right now and it is between the following five teams as to who will host:

Kitchener Rangers
London Knights
Oshawa Generals
Saginaw Spirit
Sarnia Sting

All things being equal, London would probably easily defeat the competition, with Oshawa putting up a good fight. I wonder if the fact that London hosted in 2005 will hurt them.

Is Saginaw a real possibility? Would this sell major junior to the good people of Michigan?

2) London's Patrick Kane was named OHL rookie of the month for the second time this season, with this meager stat line for February:

GP: 9
Goals: 13
Assists: 16

Yes, that's 29 points in 9 games. He's making quite the run for the number one draft pick this June.

Vancouver-Buffalo final looming?

no not a prediction. yet. I'm not convinced of Vancouver. Although they are the hottest teams of late in their respective conferences.

The Western Conference's hottest teams have been, for the most part, the best teams - creating a separation that pretty much defines the playoff eight at this point. No team has been more hot than the Vancouver Canucks, and despite fine play by the Sedin brothers, this team is Roberto Luongo. With only 173 goals scored this year (better than only four teams) they have a shockingly small amount of room for error. Each of their last eight wins have been by one goal (including two shootout victories). Another strong MVP case. I think it's time for a quick MVP front-runner column (even though I don't put any stock at all in who wins the end-of-season awards, I don't think it's too hypocritical to engage in debate about who I think the winners should be.)

In the East, the hottest teams are Buffalo and Ottawa - not unexpected due to their talent - but also surprisingly on the list are the Florida Panthers, who has only one regulation loss in their last ten games and suddenly sit only six points out of a playoff spot. The bad part is that they'll have to climb over five teams to get there, but with only the Boston Bruins making any serious noise in that constantly-fluctuating 8-12 range, hope isn't completely lost in Florida.

Back to the Sabres, who are redefining the concept of organizational depth: since the Sabres lost second-leading scorer Maxim Afinogenov and Paul Gaustad for at least the regular season in a game last month against Edmonton, they have gone 6-1-1 (including said Oilers game), while averaging over five goals per game in their last seven.