Atlanta hockey - from Flames to Thrashers

10/25/06

Atlanta Hockey, Then and Now

In the fall of 1978, the city of Atlanta had seen six seasons of NHL hockey at the Omni – home of the Flames. Although they had made the playoffs in four of their first six years, including the previous three, the fan base was becoming restless and support was waning – a strong start to the season was needed. Led by Guy Chouinard (uncle of Vancouver Canucks center Marc Chouinard) and his 50 goals, Bob MacMillan’s 108 points, and future analyst Bill Clement’s savvy two-way play they got off to a torrid start, winning 12 of their first 15 games en route to a 41 win season. The Flames’ offense was a powerhouse that year, scoring 327 goals, which averaged out to just over four per game and good for third in the league. The team had an astounding nine players with 21 goals or more. Alas, those were the days of the brutal best-of-three preliminary round and in two quick playoff games they were bounced by the Toronto Maple Leafs and done for the year.

This could be the year that many – or all – old Atlanta NHL records are either beaten or put to rest. While to this date the Buffalo Sabres seem to be the elite team in the NHL, there are a number of teams right on their heels, and to me none are more surprising than the Atlanta Thrashers. With 15 points and at 7-1-1, the Thrashers sit comfortably in second place in the Eastern Conference. The question begs to be asked: how exactly are they doing it?

Clearly the discussion begins with Marian Hossa - on the short list of best players to date this season one would have to put Hossa near or at the top; Buffalo can make the case for at least three or four players, but on a less-talented team Hossa sticks out. In last summer’s huge Hossa for Dany Heatley deal, Hossa became a bit of an afterthought – mostly due to Ottawa being the far better team last season – but how does that trade stack up right now? Marian Hossa is – to me – playing with clearly less talent than Heatley but is lighting it up this year. With ten goals and fifteen points already, leading the league in both categories, he has a great shot at besting his career highs in both (45 goals, 92 points) and besting those 108 points Bob MacMillan put up for the 1979 Atlanta Flames.

Ilya Kovalchuk is an established superstar and got untracked with a hat trick on Monday night against the Panthers, and is now up to five goals and 12 points – he will be near the top of the scoring charts by the end of the season. Hossa’s linemate Slava Kozlov is off to a great start with 12 points as well. Scott Mellanby – who has been around so long he was a teammate of Chico Resch’s – is off to a surprising start with four goals, and Jonathan Sim has been another big contributor in chipping in five goals.

The power play and penalty killing units are both third in the league, but the true bedrock of the team lies in the crease, where Kari Lehtonen is becoming the superstar goaltender the franchise hoped he would be. The second overall pick in 2002 behind Columbus’ Rick Nash, Lehtonen has played all nine games so far and Atlanta will ride him to as many games as possible this year. Last year’s injury-filled rookie campaign limited him to only 38 games and may have been the difference between the team making the playoffs for the first time. Barring another disaster, former Atlanta Flames goalie Dan Bouchard can kiss goodbye his Atlanta-NHL record of 32 wins (recorded in the same 1978-79 season). Lehtonen owes a great deal of credit to his no-name defence in keeping the shots down - Lehtonen has only seen 28 shots per game, good for fifth-fewest in the league. None of the six defenseman is a negative, with Niclas Havelid and Andy Sutton both at +4.

Atlanta fans have never seen their NHL teams win a playoff round, with the Flames losing in the first round each of the six times they qualified for the playoffs from 1974-1980, and the Thrashers yet to qualify in six seasons. I will fully admit that I did not see this hot start coming – in my season preview article, I had the Thrashers finishing behind Florida, Carolina, and Tampa Bay in the Southeast Division. As I wrote, I did not see where the goals would come from after the obvious snipers. And to be honest, the evidence thus far does not counter that too much; sure, the team is third in the league in goals per game, but aside from Hossa, Kovalchuk, and Kozlov, I am still concerned about the offensive depth. For now I am discounting Mellanby and Sim - considering that it’s been over a decade since Mellanby was anywhere near a point per game pace, it’s safe to assume he will level off a bit, and Sim is the owner of merely 40 career goals in 239 games.

Finally, some quotes from a preview of those long-forgotten 1978-79 Atlanta Flames, courtesy of The Complete Handbook of Pro Hockey:

“…have seemed to be close to making a[n]…improvement for a few seasons…they are still only close”

“…they have several good wings…but the depth begins to thin out with a third and fourth line”

“…the defense will not provide much scoring depth”

Virtually what I have been saying about this year’s Thrashers club. Interesting to think that had that 1979 Flames team defeated the inferior Leafs in the playoffs and advanced to the final eight, it’s possible the entire history of hockey in Atlanta could be different – more fan interest leading to more ticket sales, and perhaps giving the owners more reason to stick it out in Atlanta. As it turned out, the next season was to be the Flames’ last in Atlanta, which ended in yet another first round defeat – the Flames moved to Calgary the following year where the team blossomed and made the semifinals in their first year.
That’s now ancient history - based on this year’s fantastic start, Thrashers fans are not only expecting a playoff birth, but may have reason to hope for something not yet seen in 14 years of NHL hockey in Atlanta: the second round.

ICE Experts League Update

In the interest of full disclosure (because you can be sure I’d be writing about it if I were in first place), this week finds me firmly in 12^th place in the experts’ league – yes, that’s last place. I called myself the Dave Stapleton (only man in baseball history who’s batting average went down in seven consecutive seasons) of fantasy hockey as my points have gone down for at least five straight days. Call me crazy but I still like my squad – I’m having trouble trying to strike the balance between patience and not waiting too long to make a move. Getting Maxim Afinogenov for Anze Kopitar is already paying big dividends and, even though I am relatively low in offensive categories, it is all so tight that a hot day or two would vault me right back into the mix (example: I am eleventh in assists, but five more and I would be in fifth). Evgeni Malkin is making me look less and less ridiculous for taking him first, with a goal in each of his first four games. What’s killing me is goaltending – last in wins and goals-against, tenth in save percentage. Martin Gerber should have far more than one measly win and Alex Auld has been wildly inconsistent. I am debating whether to put Dan Cloutier in the lineup this week. The problem with a deep league like this is that you are pretty much stuck with the goaltending you drafted. I’m hoping to make some minor free agent pickups this week (Wednesday morning) but I don’t want to give anything away just yet.

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

Two Weeks In...NHL

10/21/06

Two weeks into a season is not often going to give an accurate reflection on how the year will end up for teams, but it is still interesting to take a look at which clubs are at either extreme of the standings so far. In the Eastern Conference, the top team cannot be considered a surprise, with the blistering Buffalo Sabres at 6-0 before Friday’s contest against rapidly improving Carolina. The bottom team has to be considered a shock though, and although it’s only October the Philadelphia Flyers look like they are in a world of trouble. Those two teams met on Tuesday night in Buffalo on national television in a rematch of last year’s first round series, and the 9-1 result was a lot like that playoff series in that the Sabres’ skill devastated the slower Flyers team. The surprises may have been that the Sabres are actually better than they were last year and the Flyers have obviously not properly addressed those playoff shortcomings discussed at length last spring.

Buffalo has six wins in as many games thus far and all over teams that made the playoffs last year. Last week against the Rangers and Flyers they erupted for 16 goals (both while wearing their fantastic old 80s uniforms – coincidence? Doubtful…) en route to 31 thus far which easily leads the league. Buffalo’s offence and goaltending were expected to lead them far this year, but the pleasant surprise has been the overall skill from their defensive corps. Jaroslav Spacek seems to have found the perfect home for his skills, as Buffalo now has six blueliners who excel at moving the puck quickly out of their zone and up to the speedy Sabres forwards. All in all, a fantastic start for the Sabres, who look to be capitalizing beautifully on last year’s success, and as a result have a good chance of playing to 100% attendance in Buffalo for the season since the original blue-and-gold sold out no less than seven straight seasons in the 70s.

For Philadelphia, the final score had a few red herrings – first of all, the shots were nowhere near indicative of the flow of the game. The Flyers actually outshot Buffalo, but shots are so often a meaningless stat (take a glance at the team shot totals this year and you will find a mediocre Toronto team with over 37 shots per game, leading the league. Buffalo has allowed the fifth-most shots but hasn’t lost yet). It’s also important to note that people shouldn’t start jumping on Robert Esche as being “yet another failed Flyers goaltender.” It may sound hard to believe if you didn’t see the game but Esche was perhaps the sole reason the Sabres didn't set an all-time record for goals in a game. Buffalo could have had at least 15 goals if not for Esche keeping it close early, and even playing well in complete garbage-time in the third (as well as Lindy Ruff giving increased ice time to Andrew Peters, who had multiple quality chances).

(Of course why Esche was kept in for the entire 60 minute beating is another question, and the easy answer might be that it was a response by Ken Hitchcock to Esche's comments about him earlier in the week - yet another ugly subplot of the early Philadelphia season.)
The Flyers were truly dreadful, with giveaway after giveaway in all zones – and while Maxim Afinogenov’s brilliant end-to-end rush was no doubt thrilling to the giddy Sabres faithful and reminiscent of a Gilbert Perreault classic, it was a complete embarrassment to the Flyers and especially Darien Hatcher, who once again is proving himself woefully overmatched in his rapidly decaying state. Hatcher is already a -7 and despite looking obviously overmatched last season is on his way to an even worse campaign this year.
My overworked point is that it's always easy to see 9-1 and blame the goaltender but there are far more troublesome reasons for Philadelphia's blowout – notably a highly immobile defence and a group of forwards that on paper looks dynamic but have all underperformed thus far. If things do not turn around in a hurry, we could be seeing a flurry of deals and firings – Bobby Clarke may finally have to answer for this one.
Out west, the top team is a pleasant surprise with Minnesota the only other undefeated team in the league, also at 6-0. Minnesota has been doing it partially in their traditionally stingy defensive style - only allowing 11 goals total - but this year they’ve added offence and become dangerous in all zones. Newcomer Pavol Demitra may not be producing in terms of goals (only one so far), but with seven assists and playing alongside snipers Brian Rolston and Marian Gaborik he’s helping to give the Wild the offence they’ve lacked throughout their short history. However, Minnesota is a good bet to come back to the pack a bit until they can develop a deeper scoring punch; right now Pierre-Marc Bouchard is their only other proven point producer but Mikko Koivu and Branko Radivojevic have shown some offensive flair to date. Of course, having one of the league’s best goaltenders in Manny Fernandez alone will keep them in playoff contention the rest of the year after their hot start.

On the flip side are the Phoenix Coyotes at 2-5. The Coyotes were not generally considered a playoff contender before the season. Right now they are on the verge of being considered a disaster, and looking at an array of numbers does not give a fan much of anything positive to latch onto. Note some basic team scoring stats for the Coyotes (all figures are as of Friday afternoon and are ranked out of 30 NHL teams):

2.29 goals per game – 24^th

4.14 goals against per game – 30^th

11.4% power play – 25^th

75% penalty kill – 29^th

In only three home games, they’ve been shorthanded a whopping 24 times. With a thus-far terrible penalty kill rate, that’s a quick recipe for losing. They’ve also been awful at even strength, giving up twice as many goals at five on five as they score.

This is a team and franchise without apparent direction – the surprising off-season free agent signing of Ed Jovanovski could be chalked up to the theory that by overpaying for a “name player” you’ll make that destination more attractive to prospective free agents in the future (something baseball’s Detroit Tigers did with the $40 million signing of Ivan Rodriguez a few years ago). I think it is a flawed theory in that the bottom line is winning, and that nobody will care about the big names if you continue to be a lousy team. In the case of the Tigers and their subsequent success, it really ends up being a logical fallacy to say that by signing Rodriguez it led to them winning the American League pennant this year; the biggest reason for the Tigers quick turnaround has far less to do with attracting big free agents and more to do with their young stable of pitchers suddenly blossoming this year. In today’s NHL (read: salary cap), teams do not have the luxury to keep a team intact for a long time. Therefore, it is imperative to build from within and try to develop a core of young talent that will grow together (as well as not necessarily pricing themselves out of the market before reaching team success). The modern-day GM’s challenge is to identify when those players are about to cross that barrier, and only then supplement the team’s talent with a key free agent signing or two. That’s the kind of club that should have signed the pricey Jovanovski ($6.5 million per season for five years), not one that doesn’t seem to have a prayer of seriously contending for a few years, by which time Jovo will be well past his prime and ability to contribute as effectively as before. Phoenix did not (and does not) have that core of talented 22-24 year olds yet, therefore they may have simply wasted millions of dollars on a player who is overrated anyways (as well as a health risk) and isn’t likely to be the sole difference between the team making the playoffs and not anytime soon.

The signings of Owen Nolan and Jeremy Roenick were a flat-out waste of $2.5 million better spent elsewhere on anything and can’t be defended on any level. At best at this point in their careers they could provide semi-mythical and non-measurable “chemistry” and “leadership” qualities to the team, which - if you believe in these traits - are quite obviously not working yet, in terms of on-ice success. At worst they both clog up the ice as well-past-their-prime former scorers (to date: three points combined) and even on the off-chance that they do end up having surprising years they would only be taking away valuable ice-time from potential prospects that Phoenix should be developing. It is a vicious cycle that will likely be repeated until someone in the Phoenix front office throws up their hands and makes the firm commitment to rebuilding as opposed to assembling a roster in a patchwork style. It doesn’t have to be a long-term process, but it does have to be a concrete decision – you can’t have it both ways.

ICE Experts League Update

After being out of the country for a week, I came back to find my team in tenth place (out of 12). A day later, I was in last. Uh-oh. Even though it’s still ridiculously early, and I’m realistically only a good day or two away from jumping right into the middle of the pack, it was time for a change, and I consummated the first deal of our season with RotoPass.com’s Pete Becker. My preseason Calder trophy pick of Anze Kopitar (full credit to SportsBlurb’s Hale Pulsifer, who was the first on his bandwagon as early as last season) has created a nice buzz for himself and I decided to sell high, dealing him straight up for Maxim Afinogenov, who will take Joffrey Lupul’s place in my starting lineup. This should be a great deal for me for two reasons: first with the return of Evgeni Malkin this week I would have had an extra center to deal with and second, Max gives me more of a sure thing for this year, and has the added “bonus” of a habit of taking a lot of penalties. He should help me in more categories than Kopitar will this year (although if this were a keeper league, I’d likely not have made this deal.). I’m still liking my roster in the long run (my goaltending stats are simply killing me; I can’t expect Ottawa/Martin Gerber to keep losing…can I?), despite my propensity for first and second year players – hopefully my trade will have “seasoned” my team a little in terms of age.

Yahoo has made this a public league so you will be able to track all of our movements and standings all year – check it out here.

My current roster:

C Daniel Briere, Evgeni Malkin, Nathan Horton

LW Mark Bell, Jussi Jokinen, Wojtek Wolski

RW Maxim Afinogenov, Chris Neil, Milan Michalek

D Nicklas Lidstrom, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Paul Mara, Lukas Krajicek, Jim Vandermeer, Alexei Zhitnik

G Martin Gerber, Alex Auld

Bench Joffrey Lupul, Jason Pominville, Zach Parise, Raffi Torres, Dan Cloutier

IR Jordan Leopold

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

TalentedMrRoto.com Experts fantasy league

10/07/06

The first fantasy hockey league I was in was in 1984 – it was less of a “league” rather simply a goal-scoring pool, but it was a start. There were six of us, and we each picked 10 players, and at the end of the year we tallied up our top nine – simple. The only special league rule was our “Gretzky” rule: if you drafted Wayne Gretzky, he counted as two players. I probably made that one up after I didn’t get the first choice.

A year later, a friend and I joined our first mail-order fantasy league, this one a bit more complex. Using goals, assists, +/-, and penalties as stats, you would create a weekly lineup – mail it in – and would play head-to-head games against the other teams. I had my first run-in with another owner that year – for weeks I had tried negotiating a deal for Gretzky. Finally, a deal was struck – I don’t recall the particulars but it was at least seven or eight players and I was getting a guy in the middle of scoring an unthinkable 215 points that year. So I sent in my new lineup…and the following week I got my results in the mail…to find out that I had lost every game. “Even with Wayne?!?!?” I thought. As it turned out, the “other” owner got cold feet and never registered the deal. He kept Gretzky, kept him in his lineup, and screwed me. So in response, I sent a box of live rats to his house*.

*possible hyperbole

This summer I had the opportunity of joining what is thought to be the first-ever Fantasy Hockey Experts league, organized and created by Eric Maltais at TalentedMr.Roto.com dubbed the TalentedMrRoto.com ICE Experts League: Invitational Challenge of Experts. I’m not sure who they confused me with, but the opportunity to join what was essentially the equivalent of baseball’s Tout Wars was one I was not about to pass up. In May, during the Stanley Cup semifinals, a mock draft was held which was limited to nine forwards (three at each position), four defencemen, and two goalies. We were operating under the assumption that the league would be roto-style and using the following categories: goals, assists, plus/minus, power play points, penalty minutes, wins, goals against, and save percentage.

Back in May, we went 15 rounds (and had only ten participants) – here’s how the first round went four months ago:

Round 1

Pick	Owner	Player
1	Hockey News	Sidney Crosby
2	SportsBlurb	Alexander Ovechkin
3	RotoWire	Jaromir Jagr
4	FantasyHockey.com	Dany Heatley
5	RotoWorld	Miikka Kiprusoff
6	Yahoo	Joe Thornton
7	McKeen’s	Ilya Kovalchuk
8	TalentedMrRoto	Jason Spezza
9	TSN	Eric Staal
10	Rotopass	Brendan Morrow

Interesting, as there is not really a big surprise until you reach number ten, with Dallas’ Brendan Morrow. Morrow doesn’t excel in any category but is solid in all – last year with 23 goals, 65 points, +30, and 183 penalty minutes. If he could only get some power play time he would be hockey’s ultimate “five-tool” player.

* * *

A few weeks ago we had our “real” draft, using the same stat categories as above, but adding two defencemen and five bench players. We also have room for two injured reserve slots and will be making trades and waiver moves. Here are the league participants:

Eric Maltais - TalentedMrRoto.com

Pete Becker – RotoPass

Scott Cullen – TSN (The Sports Network) Canada

Darryl Dobbs – The Hockey News

Dan Dobish – CBS SportsLine

Michael Finewax – RotoWorld

Ray Flowers – Fantasy hockey.com

Gus Katsaros – McKeen’s

Jan Levine – RotoWire

Christian Peterson - Fanball

Matt Romig – Yahoo

Rob Aquino – SportsBlurb

It’s interesting to note how much different the “real” first round went – there were two more teams and a much greater depth was needed (22 man roster total. Starters: three each of center, left wing, right wing, six defence, two goalies). In this article, I have gone through the draft below so you can see how deep this league is – 12 teams, 22 rounds…. elite players run out pretty quickly, so you’ve got to take some educated reaches.

I sadly drew a very short straw and was saddled with the 11^th overall pick. As you’ll see, while the order was different the first eight players selected were the same. So pretty much all of my top players were gone. For a first round, I feel like you have to make an impact. A big impact. Eric Staal and Morrow were available, as was every goalie not named Kiprusoff. So, naturally, I took a player yet to even see an NHL training camp:

Round 1

1. J. Thornton RotoWire

2. M. Kiprusoff RotoWorld

3. S. Crosby McKeen’s

4. A. Ovechkin TSN.ca

5. J. Jagr RotoPass

6. D. Heatley TalentedMrRoto.com

7. J. Spezza Fanball

8. I. Kovalchuk The Hockey News

9. D. Alfredsson Y! Sports

10. J. Cheechoo CBS SportsLine

11. E. Malkin SportsBlurb

12. M. Brodeur FantasyHockey.com

My rationale was this: I didn’t want to take a goalie. Kiprusoff is clearly the cream of the crop, both in talent and the fact that barring injury, he’ll play well above 60 games. Sure, Martin Brodeur can fit those claims, even if he’s closer to the end of his career than the beginning. At the same time, I just didn’t want to take a goalie, let alone one who I’m quite confident has already had his peak years. So I went with Evgeni Malkin. The general sentiment from the rest of the league was pretty much summed up as: “wow.” I’ll leave you to guess my sentiment after Malkin’s collision with John LeClair in his first preseason game.

Round 2

1. R. Luongo FantasyHockey.com

2. N. Lidstrom SportsBlurb

3. M. Hossa CBS SportsLine

4. M. Naslund Y! Sports

5. C. Pronger The Hockey News

6. E. Staal Fanball

7. M. Fernandez TalentedMrRoto.com

8. B. Morrow RotoPass

9. H. Zetterberg TSN.ca

10. S. Niedermayer McKeen’s

11. B. McCabe RotoWorld

12. O. Jokinen RotoWire

My thinking in the second round was that after that top elite tier of forwards, there’s a larger B-pool, and I was quite confident I could get just as good (read: reliable, after my admittedly risky first round pick) a forward in the third or fourth round as the second, but nowhere near the same quality defenceman. Hence my choice to pick the best fantasy defenceman in the league in Nicklas Lidstrom was an easy one.

Round 3

1. M. Gaborik RotoWire

2. T. Vokoun RotoWorld

3. W. Redden McKeen’s

4. S. Gonchar TSN.ca

5. R. Miller RotoPass

6. R. Nash TalentedMrRoto.com

7. C. Ward Fanball

8. M. Turco The Hockey News

9. J. Iginla Y! Sports

10. P. Forsberg CBS SportsLine

11. M. Gerber SportsBlurb

12. T. Bertuzzi FantasyHockey.com

Here’s where I lost a little confidence. I was hoping Ryan Miller would somehow fall to me, and nearly banking on it, so when Pete Becker took him six picks ahead of me I foolishly didn’t have a strong backup plan and I wanted a goaltender. Martin Gerber’s last image in the public eye might not be a strong one; he started the playoffs as the Canes’ number one before being yanked for game three against the Canadiens following two losses. He did play again in the playoffs, and quite well, but was obviously overshadowed by Cam Ward’s Conn Smythe performance. I went with Gerber more on the basis of his team likely to win near 50 games again, and am hoping his performance mirrors that of his regular season last year.

Round 4

1. S. Gagne FantasyHockey.com

2. D. Briere SportsBlurb

3. P. Datsyuk CBS SportsLine

4. D. Phaneuf Y! Sports

5. M. Savard The Hockey News

6. H. Lundqvist Fanball

7. Z. Chara TalentedMrRoto.com

8. B. Shanahan RotoPass

9. K. Lehtonen TSN.ca

10. P. Elias McKeen’s

11. M. Schneider RotoWorld

12. B. Gionta RotoWire

I needed to grab a forward here that I could count on for points, and despite his playing in only 48 games last year, Buffalo’s Daniel Briere fit the bill for me. His 58 points put him on a 99-point pace, and his sports hernia injury appears to be a fluke (says his hopeful fantasy owner), as he had missed only four games over his previous three NHL seasons. Buffalo once again figures to be one of the higher scoring teams in the league and Briere is their leader and most talented offensive player.

Round 5

1. S. Zubov RotoWire

2. A. Tanguay RotoWorld

3. D. Roloson McKeen’s

4. J. Sakic TSN.ca

5. D. Hasek RotoPass

6. J. Pitkanen TalentedMrRoto.com

7. E. Cole Fanball

8. S. Doan The Hockey News

9. L. Nagy Y! Sports

10. V. Toskala CBS SportsLine

11. N. Horton SportsBlurb

12. B. Richards FantasyHockey.com

This was the round where I wanted to make another pick that may have been a little early, but in fantasy leagues I’d rather get my guy a round or two early than keep delaying and miss out as someone else grabs him. I’ve been high on Nathan Horton for years, ever since he was with the Oshawa Generals of the Ontario Hockey League. A fantastic physical forward with great hands, I believe his 28 goals last year are a stepping stone to at least 35 this year on a Florida team that I think should make a strong playoff push. At times his style reminds me of a young Wendel Clark.

Round 6

1. P. Marleau FantasyHockey.com

2. M. Bell SportsBlurb

3. I. Bryzgalov CBS SportsLine

4. R. Blake Y! Sports

5. J. Bouwmeester The Hockey News

6. M. St. Louis Fanball

7. P. Demitra TalentedMrRoto.com

8. M. Nylander RotoPass

9. V. Lecavalier TSN.ca

10. T. Selanne McKeen’s

11. P. Kariya RotoWorld

12. M. Denis RotoWire

I was already set with starting centers so I knew I needed a winger here – and I was/am very excited about this pick – I first saw Mark Bell with the OHL’s Ottawa 67s and it was clear he had a great professional future - with 25 goals last year on a lousy Chicago team, I’m expecting the 26 year old to have a monster season playing alongside Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo.

Round 7

1. M. Havlat RotoWire

2. M. Zidlicky RotoWorld

3. T. Kaberle McKeen’s

4. M. Sundin TSN.ca

5. P. Boucher RotoPass

6. J. Arnott TalentedMrRoto.com

7. M. Hejduk Fanball

8. A. Hemsky The Hockey News

9. J. Theodore Y! Sports

10. J. Giguere CBS SportsLine

11. J. Lupul SportsBlurb

12. K. Timonen FantasyHockey.com

Something that is probably becoming apparent is my tendency to steer towards prospects and/or young players that have potential. Even though I’ve had success using this approach, it’s definitely killed me as well. Joffrey Lupul’s second NHL season was an impressive one, with 28 goals. Moving to his hometown team and one that is loaded up front may be a big move for him, as I see him being one of the Oilers’ big guns this year. I hope.

Round 8

1. M. Sturm FantasyHockey.com

2. A. Auld SportsBlurb

3. A. Meszaros CBS SportsLine

4. M. Fleury Y! Sports

5. K. Tkachuk The Hockey News

6. B. Rolston Fanball

7. H. Toivonen TalentedMrRoto.com

8. R. Lang RotoPass

9. Ju. Williams TSN.ca

10. M. Straka McKeen’s

11. S. Gomez RotoWorld

12. C. Huet RotoWire

Taking a shot here for my second goalie. I’m seeing the Panthers as a breakout team this year, but a lot of that is on Alexander Auld’s shoulders. While Ed Belfour is also on the Florida squad, his days as an impact goalie are over. I’m banking on Auld stepping up and being the main man on a young improving squad.

Round 9

1. J. Liles RotoWire

2. P. Bergeron RotoWorld

3. K. Calder McKeen’s

4. A. Markov TSN.ca

5. L. Visnovsky RotoPass

6. C. Armstrong TalentedMrRoto.com

7. D. Sedin Fanball

8. S. Horcoff The Hockey News

9. R. Getzlaf Y! Sports

10. J. Corvo CBS SportsLine

11. M. Bergeron SportsBlurb

12. R. Smyth FantasyHockey.com

I had only taken one defenceman to this point, so I was grabbing on here no matter what. The Oilers’ defence is tough but woefully bereft of offensive talent. Marc-Andre Bergeron is their only defenceman with a track record of moving the puck and getting some points, and I nabbed him based on the expectation that he will be the defensive point man on the Oilers’ power play. I’m just hoping they don’t decide to get crazy with a five-forward unit…

Round 10

1. B. Stuart FantasyHockey.com

2. J. Jokinen SportsBlurb

3. M. Svatos CBS SportsLine

4. M. Modano Y! Sports

5. J. Spacek The Hockey News

6. T. Preissing Fanball

7. N. Kronwall TalentedMrRoto.com

8. M. Afinogenov RotoPass

9. A. Kovalev TSN.ca

10. B. Rafalski McKeen’s

11. E. Jovanovski RotoWorld

12. S. Sullivan RotoWire

Last year’s shootout king, Jussi Jokinen played the first game this week on a line with Jere Lehtinen and Mike Modano, although in limited capacity (just over 11 minutes). If he stays with them, this could be a good pick, but in retrospect I think I might have been reaching here. Looking down the list, I really would have been safer (and likely better) taking Maxim Afinogenov (I had only selected one LW and one RW at this point); I feel like I blew this one.

Round 11

1. K. Johnsson RotoWire

2. M. Knuble RotoWorld

3. D. Boyle McKeen’s

4. T. Vanek TSN.ca

5. B. Boyes RotoPass

6. S. Avery TalentedMrRoto.com

7. M. Carle Fanball

8. D. Zubrus The Hockey News

9. S. Salo Y! Sports

10. D. Tucker CBS SportsLine

11. P. Mara SportsBlurb

12. A. McDonald FantasyHockey.com

Still needing to fill in my defence, it was starting to get a little thin. In the real world I like the fit of Paul Mara on Boston this season, and I’m hoping a little of that will rub off in his stats – his offensive game should fit in much better with the new-look Bruins than Nick Boynton did last season.

Round 12

1. D. Vyborny FantasyHockey.com

2. C. Neil SportsBlurb

3. B. Campbell CBS SportsLine

4. F. Beauchemin Y! Sports

5. M. Van Ryn The Hockey News

6. B. Pothier Fanball

7. G. Murray TalentedMrRoto.com

8. T. Holmstrom RotoPass

9. S. Weber TSN.ca

10. A. Brunette McKeen’s

11. S. Souray RotoWorld

12. B. Berard RotoWire

Yes, my goon pick – I’ve got a lot of small dancing finesse forwards – gimme some PIMs! I happen to think Chris Neil is a fairly decent hockey player (although I was planning on taking Sean Avery this round if he had fallen to me) so he could chip in a few points along the way to racking up 200+ penalty minutes.

Round 13

1. G. Brule RotoWire

2. S. Kozlov RotoWorld

3. A. Raycroft McKeen’s

4. R. Whitney TSN.ca

5. B. Seabrook RotoPass

6. K. Rachunek TalentedMrRoto.com

7. N. Zherdev Fanball

8. N. Ekman The Hockey News

9. R. Esche Y! Sports

10. S. Hartnell CBS SportsLine

11. M. Michalek SportsBlurb

12. M. Ryder FantasyHockey.com

Filling out my right wingers, I’m excited about Milan Michalek – playing on San Jose’s outstanding second line with Patrick Marleau; I’m looking for Michalek to be a 50+ point scorer this year on a strong team. His first game netted me two goals – nice start!

Round 14

1. B. Guerin FantasyHockey.com

2. W. Wolski SportsBlurb

3. F. Pisani CBS SportsLine

4. S. Bernier Y! Sports

5. R. DiPietro The Hockey News

6. A. Sutton Fanball

7. K. Ballard TalentedMrRoto.com

8. M. Rozsival RotoPass

9. M. Ohlund TSN.ca

10. R. Whitney McKeen’s

11. M. Satan RotoWorld

12. S. Samsonov RotoWire

Again with the young’uns. This pick finished my left wing starters; I have great confidence in Wojtek Wolski– with the loss of Alex Tanguay to Calgary, the offensive threats are rather thin in Colorado and they will be leaning on Wolski to fill part of Tanguay’s absence. He got over four minutes of power play time in the Avalanche’s first game this season, which should bode well for me in that category.

Round 15

1. D. Morris RotoWire

2. P. Bouchard RotoWorld

3. K. Huselius McKeen’s

4. R. Hamrlik TSN.ca

5. P. Prucha RotoPass

6. D. Hamhuis TalentedMrRoto.com

7. A. Frolov Fanball

8. A. Radulov The Hockey News

9. S. Fedorov Y! Sports

10. C. Stillman CBS SportsLine

11. J. Leopold SportsBlurb

12. K. Foster FantasyHockey.com

The only starting slots I needed to fill at this point were defencemen, and three of them. Very thin. I’m taking a reach with this one – Jordan Leopold’s numbers weren’t great last year with only 20 points but he did have a semi-respectable 33 the year before. I’m hoping the Avalanche put him in more of a featured role this season…of course he’s currently on injured reserve so this is a wait and see. He’s a candidate for an early drop.

Round 16

1. P. Kubina FantasyHockey.com

2. J. Pominville SportsBlurb

3. J. Modry CBS SportsLine

4. C. Ehrhoff Y! Sports

5. H. Sedin The Hockey News

6. E. Nabokov Fanball

7. R. Emery TalentedMrRoto.com

8. R. Salei RotoPass

9. J. Carter TSN.ca

10. J. Blake McKeen’s

11. D. Langkow RotoWorld

12. J. Lehtinen RotoWire

I was surprised to see Jason Pominville drop this low, and was excited to nab him here, even if my right wing slots were filled. Although his raw totals from last year aren’t eye-popping, he only was called up from Rochester midway through the season. Still, I thought that his series-clinching goal vs. Ottawa would have bumped him up in most peoples’ rankings – with the loss of J.P. Dumont, Pominville will be a major force in Buffalo’s powerful offence this year, and he gets quality power-play time.

Round 17

1. N. Khabibulin RotoWire

2. B. Morrison RotoWorld

3. M. Comrie McKeen’s

4. P. Leclaire TSN.ca

5. C. Kunitz RotoPass

6. O. Nolan TalentedMrRoto.com

7. P. Martin Fanball

8. N. Boynton The Hockey News

9. E. Lindros Y! Sports

10. M. Richards CBS SportsLine

11. L. Krajicek SportsBlurb

12. V. Prospal FantasyHockey.com

I think this could be a hidden gem in the big summer trade; not many people talked about other players than Roberto Luongo or Todd Bertuzzi but Lukas Krajicek has great skills and I’m hoping he’ll earn some special teams play as well. He got 19 minutes in their first game this week which is a good sign.

Round 18

1. M. Legace FantasyHockey.com

2. J. Vandermeer SportsBlurb

3. A. Niittymaki CBS SportsLine

4. F. Meyer Y! Sports

5. B. Sopel The Hockey News

6. C. Conroy Fanball

7. A. Ladd TalentedMrRoto.com

8. A. Semin RotoPass

9. A. Kotalik TSN.ca

10. S. Walker McKeen’s

11. S. McCarthy RotoWorld

12. M. Erat RotoWire

I haven’t been paying too much attention to penalty minutes (other than Neil and perhaps Horton and Bell) – with me needing a final defenceman and the lack of scoring out there, I went with Jim Vandermeer who I’m hoping gets mixed up in some major brawls this year. Not that I’d advocate that kind of behavior.

Round 19

1. A. Aucoin RotoWire

2. J. Langenbrunner RotoWorld

3. B. Witt McKeen’s

4. J. Stoll TSN.ca

5. C. Osgood RotoPass

6. F. Kuba TalentedMrRoto.com

7. C. Campoli Fanball

8. A. Yashin The Hockey News

9. R. Malone Y! Sports

10. S. Ozolinsh CBS SportsLine

11. A. Kopitar SportsBlurb

12. C. Phillips FantasyHockey.com

We’re down to filling some bench spots so there’s no harm in taking chances. I already had a strong fantasy-interest in rookie Anze Kopitar and by nearly all accounts Kopitar was the star of the entire Kings’ training camp. The 19-year old Slovenian has been clicking on a line with Alexander Frolov and looks to start the season with him.

Round 20

1. C. Joseph FantasyHockey.com

2. R. Torres SportsBlurb

3. N. Baumgartner CBS SportsLine

4. B. Clark Y! Sports

5. M. Biron The Hockey News

6. P. Eaves Fanball

7. J. Dumont TalentedMrRoto.com

8. D. Hatcher RotoPass

9. P. O'Sullivan TSN.ca

10. M. Fisher McKeen’s

11. D. Wideman RotoWorld

12. R. Fedotenko RotoWire

I think a really good pickup in the 20^th round – Raffi Torres had 27 goals and should match or exceed that this year. He’s picking up a reputation as a bit of a pest as well – two years ago in the AHL he picked up 165 penalty minutes – I’m hoping he brings a little of that back this season.

Round 21

1. D. Penner RotoWire

2. F. Modin RotoWorld

3. M. Parrish McKeen’s

4. S. Staios TSN.ca

5. R. Schremp RotoPass

6. T. Ruutu TalentedMrRoto.com

7. M. Barnaby Fanball

8. C. Barker The Hockey News

9. J. O'Neill Y! Sports

10. M. Staal CBS SportsLine

11. D. Cloutier SportsBlurb

12. M. Malik FantasyHockey.com

Looking for a depth goalie, I could do a lot worse than Dan Cloutier. Another victim of the Vancouver goalie graveyard, new Kings coach Marc Crawford obviously saw more in him than Canucks fans did. In a fantasy goaltender you’re looking for a guy who will be the clear number one to get you wins – the job is Cloutier’s to lose this year.

Round 22

1. R. Zednik FantasyHockey.com

2. L. Smid SportsBlurb

3. C. Perry CBS SportsLine

4. R. Vrbata Y! Sports

5. S. Chistov The Hockey News

6. T. Thomas Fanball

7. P. Schaefer TalentedMrRoto.com

8. D. Afanasenkov RotoPass

9. A. Kaigorodov TSN.ca

10. M. Handzus McKeen’s

11. D. Aebischer RotoWorld

12. B. Jackman RotoWire

Last round, I’m taking a shot on a rookie defenceman. Ladislav Smid came over with Joffrey Lupul in the Chris Pronger deal and is expected to be a force for the Oilers in the future – this year may be a stretch.

* * *

A final note about the league – we each have $100 for a Free Agent Acquisition Budget for the year. Each week we can bid on a player using this “money” – I’ve made two moves: I needed another center to take Malkin’s place while injured (and why isn’t he on IR? killing me.) – Ladislav Smid, I hardly knew ye. Dropped him to get Zach Parise (cost me $3) who could put up huge numbers this year – I’m pretty surprised nobody grabbed him. I also had to put Jordan Leopold on the IR so I grabbed Alex Zhitnik for $1.

Here’s how my roster looks:

C Daniel Briere, Nathan Horton, Zach Parise

LW Mark Bell, Jussi Jokinen, Wojtek Wolski

RW Joffrey Lupul, Chris Neil, Milan Michalek

D Nicklas Lidstrom, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Paul Mara, Lukas Krajicek, Jim Vandermeer, Alexei Zhitnik

G Martin Gerber, Alex Auld

bench Anze Kopitar, Jason Pominville, Evgeni Malkin, Raffi Torres, Dan Cloutier

IR Jordan Leopold

Periodically throughout the season, I will give updates on the league, my moves (and inevitable mistakes), and any deals that go down.

2006-2007 NHL Season Preview

10/04/06

For hockey fans, tonight marks the unofficial end of summer: the 89^th season of the National Hockey League begins at 7:00 EST when the Carolina Hurricanes get to raise their Stanley Cup banner before hosting the Buffalo Sabres in a rematch of last year’s thrilling seven-game Eastern Conference final. It still seems surreal that the Hurricanes won the Cup – not that they weren’t worthy champions. It’s almost as if this buried the old Hartford Whalers ties forever.

When I was in college I went to a number of games at the Hartford Civic Center, a.k.a. “The Mall” - dubbed that because, well, it was in a mall. It was a great arena – the sightlines were pure old-school NHL, on par with the old Boston Garden, Quebec City’s Colisee, and Buffalo’s Memorial Auditorium. Seats were relatively cheap at The Mall and you got to hear Brass Bonanza before every period and after every Whalers goal. Good times. One game I went to see the Buffalo Sabres and I saw them lose 9-0. NINE – ZERO. That means I heard Brass Bonanza 12 times. By the third period I embraced the clubbing that my team was taking and was screaming for the Whalers. There were and are good knowledgeable hockey fans in Connecticut and they deserved better than ownership that ignored the on-ice product for years. Just like most cities that see a team leave, they didn’t lose it because they were bad fans – the fans were tired of coming to support a franchise that was bad season after season.

Hartford’s best chances came in 1986 and 1987 – in the latter year they won the division and were bounced in the first round by the inferior Nordiques. In 1986 they lost in round two to the eventual Cup Champion Montreal Canadiens on a game seven overtime goal by rookie Claude Lemieux. Those were deep teams that if they had stayed together (hello Ron Francis trade, goodbye respectability) may have changed the franchise’s fortunes for good.

That’s the past, and the present is very good for the Carolina Hurricanes. Tonight they get what they deserved and will be celebrating the opening of the season on national television as defending Cup champions.

- - -

If you have seen the SportsBlurb.com Fantasy Hockey Sourcebook (and if not, please do), you know that – among other predictions - our hockey staff picked Calgary to beat Ottawa next spring for the Cup and Evgeni Malkin to win the Calder.

I don’t necessarily agree.

Space and the desire to sleep will prevent me from giving in-depth previews of every team (get those in the aforementioned Sourcebook) but I’d like to kick off the season with my own predictions for the upcoming season; where all 30 teams will finish and my best bets for the major end-of-year awards. I’ll also let you know which teams – with a little luck – could be this year’s surprise squads.

Without further ado, I present the Conference Formerly Known as Wales…

Eastern Conference

15. Washington Capitals

The cliché is that this team is Alexander Ovechkin and nobody else, and it’s not too far off from the truth. Not having Nicklas Backstrom come over from Sweden this year will hurt, but it’s not like they were winning the Cup with him. Finishing last overall this year is once again within reach (and earning the right to draft Angelo Esposito…which wouldn’t be a bad thing).

14. New York Islanders

Ted Nolan should have stayed in Moncton. A great guy and great coach, he’s going to need to stay strong this year to answer the endless questions about everything: poor play, how is it to work for Charles Wang and Garth Snow, whether Rick DiPietro is earning his absurd contract, are Alexei Yashin and Miroslav Satan working as hard as they should. This franchise is running in place – they’ll be ok on some nights and terrible on others, and unlike other bottom-dwellers don’t have that elite prospect to look forward to in a year or two. Much work to be done.

13. Atlanta Thrashers

I have to admit, I don’t get the hype here. The positives are obvious: Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa, Kari Lehtonen – three players any team in the world would be happy to build around. But after that the cupboard is dreadfully bare (OK, I’ll give you Slava Kozlov), especially in the center position - losing Marc Savard will have a ripple effect on the entire corps of forwards. I’d really hoped Bryan Little would make the team just for excitement, but if this team is relying on Bobby Holik or Steve Rucchin to be the top pivot, that’s a team that can be shut down. The defence is comprised of decent parts with nobody to step up and be a number one. Needs work.

12. Pittsburgh Penguins

This team showed a little improvement last year after a horrible start. Slow improvement as the kids gain a year and Sidney Crosby establishes himself as a veteran. Malkin’s presence will give opponents two skilled lines to contend with, but depth after the top six and a young defence (after Sergei Gonchar) will give Penguins fans constant growing pains. Marc-Andre Fleury must make a step forward this year in his first full NHL season. They’re not there yet, but in a few years look out.

11. Toronto Maple Leafs

While I don’t think this is a bad team, they’re a team in transition in that they appear to be finally committing to young talent. They have some skilled kids who will help the team this year: Kyle Wellwood, Alex Steen, and Alexei Ponikarovsky. Mats Sundin is the best 70 point player in the league – hopefully Paul Maurice will utilize his skills better than the departed Pat Quinn did. The defence is mobile with Bryan McCabe, Tomas Kaberle, and Pavel Kubina. Depth and goaltending are what keeps me from thinking they’re a playoff team – clearly the Leafs are banking on finding the Calder-winning Andrew Raycroft rather than the poor showing he put forth last year - giving up Tuukka Rask was a big gamble that will only look good if Raycroft can lead them to the postseason.

10. Montreal Canadiens

My summary will take the form of many questions: Cristobal Huet was Vezina-worthy in the second half last year – can he remain that good over the long season or will David Aebischer push him out? Will Saku Koivu be effective after a horrible eye injury? Will Sergei Samsonov ever be more than a 60 point player? Was it worth giving up on the temperamental Mike Ribiero for the declining Janne Niinimaa? Does skilled rookie Guillaume Latendresse have the best name in the NHL? I want the Canadiens in the playoffs, it’s not right without them, but they’ll need positive answers to nearly all of these questions to make it.

9. New York Rangers

This was a hard one, and I think this is a testament to the top eight teams in the east when I state that the Rangers may not make the playoffs. They’re still a 90+ point team but looking at their roster – last year’s success notwithstanding, and the addition of the seemingly-ageless Brendan Shanahan – looks like a 1999 All-Star Game. It might be believing a lot to expect that crew to all duplicate their individual successes of a year ago. Outside of Michal Rozsival their defence needs to improve. Looks like they have a prize in net with Henrik Lundqvist and he certainly could be the difference to vault them into that 6-8 range, but I’m betting on other teams’ improvements being the main reason the Rangers take a step back this year.

8. Tampa Bay Lightning

Even though the Lightning made the playoffs last year, it wasn’t a worthy follow-up to winning the Cup in the previous season. Truthfully, I have little idea what to expect from this team. Marc Denis will finally get his first opportunity with a quality team and if he wins early and often, that confidence could affect the entire team – this team could finish anywhere from first to third in the Southeast. There’s no shortage of names, Brad Richards, Vincent LeCavalier and Martin St. Louis being the big three but Lecavalier and St. Louis in particular need to elevate their games and justify superstar status. I think there’s enough talent on this team to make the playoffs even if everyone doesn’t click, just like last year. But if Denis excels, Tampa wins this division.

7. Boston Bruins

A team that I think will show big improvement. Unlike everyone else in New England, I didn’t think the Joe Thornton trade was a complete disaster – the deal created payroll flexibility as well as giving them depth. Now with newcomers Phil Kessel and Marc Savard, they have the makings of an exciting top two lines. With new captain Zdeno Chara, Brad Stuart, and Paul Mara, the defence is completely overhauled from a year ago and much improved. Fans in Boston need to get over their eternal bitterness and watch this club, as it should be the most entertaining to hit the Fleet Center in a long time, with a good future ahead of them.

6. New Jersey Devils

It looks like Lou Lamoriello will at least come close to doing the impossible in putting the roster together under the salary cap. The Devils took the division in a mad sprint at the end of last year and should again make the playoffs this year but there are question marks – notably the defence which frankly looks quite weak. On offence, their top three will once again produce. Zach Parise will be a star, if not this year then next. Martin Brodeur is past his peak but still among the top goaltenders in the league. Approaching 100 points is possible again, but they don’t have the defence to make a playoff run.

5. Carolina Hurricanes

Out to prove that last year’s magical season was no fluke, they’ll be without a few major pieces to start the season, in Cory Stillman, Frank Kaberle and Bret Hedican. They suddenly look just a little vulnerable on defence, but there’s a ton of talent to make up for much of their losses. Veterans Ray Whitney and Rod Brind’Amour and youngsters Erik Cole and Eric Staal are forwards any team would love. Watch for Andrew Ladd – with icetime he’ll be a major player in the league this year. Will Cam Ward hold up over an entire season? All these minor questions make me think they may not have enough to win the division again this year, although if healthy by April another run is certainly a possibility.

4. Ottawa Senators

Although I pick them fourth in the conference (due to division winners getting the top three slots), they should finish neck and neck with Buffalo for the division title. There are losses from last year – Martin Havlat, Dominik Hasek, and Zdeno Chara being the most prominent. Yet Havlat only played 18 games last year and I think Martin Gerber and Ray Emery will handle the net duties just fine. They still have three of the ten best forwards in the league in Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley. Ottawa gets little respect for such an elite team, due to their high-profile lack of success in the playoffs but this team is still second to none in overall talent. They’ll be in the mix.

3. Florida Panthers

My Eastern surprise. I differ from many pundits on this team – I love what they’re building here. The simple analysis is to point to the net and say they’ll be crushed without the talents of Roberto Luongo and I’d be a fool to say they haven’t lost a lot in that area. This pick does hinge on Alex Auld (I have no faith in Billion-Dollar Eddie Belfour) because in all other areas this is a team on the rise – Oli Jokinen and Nathan Horton will be the offensive foundation for years, Todd Bertuzzi has everything on the line this season playing with a one-year deal.

2. Philadelphia Flyers

I’ll admit this pick was made before Antero Niittymaki went down. Bobby Clarke may make a move as he might not be comfortable with Robert Esche as his number one goalie. Yet it’s a long season and many good goalies are or will be available. If they settle their goaltending situation by the playoffs, they could be dangerous, as their stable of forwards will be fun to watch. Former OHL rivals Jeff Carter and Mike Richards are a fantastic sophomore duo and I love the addition of Kyle Calder. The Flyers’ Achilles heel is still their defence – their orange colors were mistaken for pylons in their first round elimination by Buffalo last year and they’ll either need to improve or make a personnel addition to make it through the East this year.

1. Buffalo Sabres

It’s hard to write objectively about a team you’ve followed for decades, and I waffled on this pick for longer than I care to admit. In the end though, it’s quite easy to make the case for Buffalo to win the conference – four fast lines and a great power play, a defence that is six-deep and a potential franchise goalie. The only thing obvious that this team is missing is grit – they’ll miss Mike Grier but are hoping Adam Mair will play that role. Jay McKee is a loss but the addition of Jaroslav Spacek gives them yet another mobile puck-moving defenceman. Both co-captains - Daniel Briere and Chris Drury – are Buffalo’s best players and will be unrestricted free agents after this season – the time is now for the Sabres.

As I type the phrase Campbell Conference, all I can picture in my head is the classic beautifully-ugly orange all-star uniform, and I see Doug Wilson – no helmet, clearing the zone in front of Grant Fuhr…

Western Conference

15. Chicago Blackhawks

Yikes, when will it end? They had to overpay for Martin Havlat, who will give them a legitimate offensive threat – likely, their only one. Brent Seabrook is an emerging force on defence leading an otherwise motley crew. Nikolai Khabibulin took a big contract and laid down on the job last year. This franchise is a long way from the excellent early 90s teams and is still a long way from earning respectability.

14. Phoenix Coyotes

At least they’re settling on more reasonable uniforms. I’m confused by this franchise - they have some talent on the team but not enough. And adding Jeremy Roenick and Owen Nolan is a major step back for a team that should be focusing on approaching the playoffs with young players who are on the upside of their careers, not stars from NHL ’98. Curtis Joseph started the year on fire but the team would have been better off dealing him when his stock was high. By the time this team is better, they’ll need a new goalie. There are good pieces here, but not a good team.

13. Columbus Blue Jackets

They should be marginally better with a decent offence. Rick Nash is a premier goal scorer and rookie Gilbert Brule should bring excitement to the second line. I’m not thrilled by their defence though – Adam Foote would be better off as a final piece to a contending team (Anaheim?). Pascal Leclaire needs to prove his high draft position was worth it. So many questions – if everything goes right they have a chance to improve simply because of the weakness at the bottom of this conference.

12. St. Louis Blues

After making the playoffs every year since 1979 the Blues finally hit rock bottom. As a response, they went on a binge, signing Jay McKee, Bill Guerin, Doug Weight, Martin Rucinsky, and Manny Legace. Not all of those are great signings, but they could bring dividends later in the year in deadline deals. This is the beginning of a long rebuilding process.

11. Dallas Stars

Call it a gut feeling but I’m sensing a drop-off here. I don’t like the vibe going into the season with Mike Modano being alienated by his captaincy being stripped away (and he didn’t even sleep in late ala Rick Vaive). I don’t think the addition of Eric Lindros improves them at all, and I’m not convinced that Marty Turco is the answer anymore. They have some good names but with most of the Pacific teams improving I think it leaves Dallas behind.

10. Vancouver Canucks

So Roberto Luongo finally is traded from the Florida Panthers…and ends up on a mediocre club that will struggle to make the playoffs. Sounds familiar. Not sure where the goals will come from – the Sedin brothers are more playmakers which leaves Markus Naslund, Brendan Morrison, and filler. They’ll miss Ed Jovanovski but did acquire a fantastic replacement in Lukas Krajicek. Another team in the tight race for the last few playoff spots, Luongo will likely play close to 70 games and will need to be healthy all year for the Canucks to slip into the seventh or eighth spot. Hopefully they’ll wear their blue retro uniforms all year.

9. Minnesota Wild

I like their top forwards: Brian Rolston, Pavol Demitra, Marian Gaborik. Pierre-Marc Bouchard has 80 point potential this year. Manny Fernandez will finally be the undisputed number one goalie. But this is another team that will go as far as their weak defence takes them, and I think it leaves them just short of a playoff bid.

8. Colorado Avalanche

A team that could drop much lower than eighth if Jose Theodore falters. He’s a great unknown right now, this year is crucial to him personally as well as the Avalanche. Joe Sakic can still bring the goods in his 18^th year with the franchise and Milan Hejduk should rebound from a subpar year. Wojtek Wolski will be an impact rookie, having had success as a late-season callup last year. But this team differs from past ‘Lanche teams in that there’s no depth. Jordan Leopold helps a very thin defence. Rebuilding is just around the corner for Colorado.

7. Los Angeles Kings

I love where this franchise is heading. On the ice, the team has been treading water for much of the past decade, having reached the second round once since the 1993 finals. I love when teams patiently draft and don’t overreach when they’re not ready to contend. I love the trade of Pavol Demitra to Minnesota for Patrick O’Sullivan, and just this week stealing Michigan defenceman Jack Johnson from Carolina. I love Dustin Brown and Mike Cammalleri. I love Alexander Frolov and Lubomir Visnovsky. I love the veteran skill of Craig Conroy. Mostly, I love Anze Kopitar, who is about to become the first Slovenian to play in the NHL. This team is still very raw and still a few years from peaking. They could easily stumble but the bottom of the West is so bad I think they can surprise - within three years they will be the best team in the Western Conference.

6. Edmonton Oilers

While game seven of the finals last year is a painful memory for Oilers’ fans, game one is more of a heartbreak – losing a huge lead in the third period. But for that collapse, the Cup would reside in the City of Champions once again. In turn, the only way to improve upon last year would be to win it this year, and that will be a tall task. This should be among the most fun teams in hockey to watch, which isn’t necessarily to Craig MacTavish’s liking. Losing Michael Peca and Sergei Samsonov to me isn’t a big deal, especially getting the exciting Joffrey Lupul on board. Losing Chris Pronger and Jaroslav Spacek is a big deal. I expect a lot of offense in both directions during Oilers games.

5. Anaheim Ducks

One of the chic picks to come out of the West this year, I’m not convinced they’re there yet, but they will contend. They do sport the best defensive duo in ages in Pronger and Scott Niedermayer. Aside from a rejuvenated Teemu Selanne, the rest of the top six forwards are young and skilled – Ryan Getzlaf, Chris Kunitz, Dustin Penner, Andy McDonald. I’m not yet sold on Corey Perry, who has great offensive skill but needs a strong dose of fearlessness. My concerns are that beyond the top two defence (who will each approach 25 minutes per game, granted) they’re thin, and their relative inexperience in the scoring lines may not be enough. A team to watch though, for sure – if they make the right move for a power forward and tough third defenceman it could take them to the top.

4. Detroit Red Wings

The retirement of Steve Yzerman was a benchmark, and a good one. While certainly on a short list of greatest careers in history, last year marked one spent largely as the league’s most well-known spare part. Now they can move on and focus on youth; Detroit has gradually reloaded and should be set for years, and although the team had a disappointing flame-out to Edmonton in the playoffs, they should be right back near the top of the pack this season (especially that they get to play the three division dogs so often). Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are superstars surrounded by talent, including rookie Jiri Hudler. The only aged players on the team are still bringing it – the defence is anchored again by Nicklas Lidstrom and Mathieu Schneider (who had his best season statistically). Finally Dominik Hasek returns to tend net once again. If he’s healthy (a big if) he’s still one of the very best.

3. Nashville Predators

Not a perfect roster but this team is a legitimate challenger for the Cup. J.P. Dumont isn’t a superstar, but his signing was perfect in giving the squad a potentially lethal front line with Paul Kariya and Jason Arnott. Their top nine are so talented that there was no room for potential Calder candidate Alexander Radulov, who will start the season in the AHL. Their defence is highly skilled but could use some grit – they should deal a forward for a mean stay-at-home type. Nevertheless, with a healthy Tomas Vokoun behind who they have, Nashville will make serious noise.

2. San Jose Sharks

The line of Mark Bell, Joe Thornton, and Jonathan Cheechoo could be the best in hockey. The line behind them – Milan Michalek, Patrick Marleau, and Steve Bernier would be the best line on many other teams. A smart and tough third line makes this team as good a combination of skill and strength as any in the league. They can choose between Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala in goal and succeed. People love this lineup, but are forgetting the question mark: defence. Matt Carle might end up being their top talent but this will be his official rookie campaign. Scott Hannan and Kyle McLaren are quality defensemen but limited in moving the puck. It may still be enough, especially if a deal is made mid-season.

1. Calgary Flames

OK, in the end I am siding with the majority on our staff: I think Calgary wins the Cup this year. Winning hockey’s toughest division last year took a toll on the offensively-challenged Flames, bowing out to the Ducks in the first round. They addressed that need neatly by picking up Alex Tanguay for one of their many talented defencemen, Jordan Leopold. While that alone won’t make Flames fans think of the Theo Fleury/Doug Gilmour teams, they only need an average offence with this defence and goaltending. Their top four (Dion Phaneuf, Robyn Regehr, Rhett Warriner, Roman Hamrlik) are unparalleled, and Miikka Kiprusoff is the best goaltender on Earth. If Tanguay can help Calgary have two decent scoring lines, it should be enough for them to not only win the division, but move through the playoffs and close the deal on their second Stanley Cup.

Here are my preseason shots at the major awards:

Hart Trophy

Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins. I can’t believe the relatively rough press Crosby got last year – he was 18 years old, people. I actually like his vocal style – he cares. If you were a fan, isn’t that the kind of player you want on your team? He cares enough that he’s going to win the first of many Hart Trophies this year.

Art Ross Trophy

Crosby. Last year was merely the best season by an 18 year old in the history of the NHL. There are some parallels between Crosby and Mario Lemieux’s early career – joining a pitiful franchise and dominating from the start. Lemieux jumped from 100 points in his rookie year to 141 in the next – Crosby won’t get that many but will get enough to lead the league.

Norris Trophy

Jay Bouwmeester, Florida Panthers. This might be a bit of a reach, and in fact I’m not sure I really believe he’ll win this – no disrespect whatsoever to an outstanding player like Nicklas Lidstrom, but the Norris Trophy has had a tendency to occasionally parrot baseball’s Gold Glove award in that once you win it, it’s your trophy to lose. So for voters to not award this to Lidstrom, Pronger, or Niedermayer there has to be a major perceived fall in their play, and equally major press for a newcomer. I love Bouwmeester’s game – he’s been brought along slowly after a stellar junior career, and on my Eastern sleeper team he will both quarterback the power play and be the go-to guy in the last minutes of a one-goal lead.

Vezina Trophy

Miikka Kiprusoff, Calgary Flames. I changed my mind on this one – I had Roberto Luongo winning it in an ultimately futile effort in Vancouver, but after considering what I believe their relative teams’ fortunes for this upcoming year, I keep coming back to Kiprusoff. Much of a goalie’s success hinges on the team (specifically the defence) in front of him, and nobody has a better defence than Calgary. Luongo is a great goalie who will play an outrageous amount of games this year but I’m not confident Vancouver will be good enough to help him get the numbers to win the award. Regardless, to me these are the two best goaltenders in the world.

Calder Trophy

Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings. Do I think Kopitar is better than Evgeni Malkin? Not necessarily. The Predators’ Alexander Radulov is just as good, but a victim of too much talent in Nashville. Awards are just as much about opportunities and Kopitar, who has wowed the Kings in preseason, is going to get at least a three week head start on Malkin. He and Alexander Frolov clicked in the preseason, with Kopitar scoring five points in four games – Anze will fly under the radar (is that possible in Los Angeles??) all year and end up as the top rookie.

Northeast Division Preview

(as published in the 2006-2007 SportsBlurb.com Hockey Sourcebook)

NORTHEAST DIVISION

Last season the Northeast division started as a runaway and ended with a surprisingly close finish - Ottawa got off to a ridiculous start to the season but injuries began to slow them and the surprising Buffalo Sabres nearly caught them by season’s end. The Montreal Canadiens, buoyed by an unexpected goaltender, caught fire in the second half to reach the playoffs and put a scare into the eventual Cup champs. Toronto and Boston came into the season with high hopes but by April were left scrambling to answer many questions about their poor finishes. In this division filled with historically hockey-crazy markets the pressure is always on each of these teams to ice a contending team, and all have high hopes again for this year with at least two of them with serious Stanley Cup dreams.

Predicted order of finish by staff:

Ottawa Senators *

Buffalo Sabres *

Montreal Canadiens

Boston Bruins

Toronto Maple Leafs

BUFFALO SABRES

2005-06 record: 52-24-6, 110 points. 2^nd in division/4^th in conference. Lost in conference semi-final to Carolina.

Head coach: Lindy Ruff

General Manager: Darcy Regier

Home arena: HSBC Arena

Capacity: 18690

Buffalo emerged from five years of hell to become one of last season’s great stories – after having missed the playoffs each years since 2001 and going through bankruptcy, ownership change, and possible loss of franchise, the Sabres made it to the conference finals last season only to run out of steam in the final 20 minutes of game seven. To many the Buffalo Sabres emerged from nowhere to win a franchise record 52 games but closer inspection would have revealed a team that was poised for success by the end of the 2004 season.

Darcy Regier and Lindy Ruff were often criticized over the past few years and took the brunt of the heat for the team’s failings; fielding accusations from lack of organizational direction to simply producing boring teams. Yet their long-term plan came to fruition last year when they shed their reputation as a defensive-oriented team and scored 281 goals, good for fifth overall in the NHL, all with their highest point-producer only scoring 73 points (Maxim Afinogenov).

Buffalo’s success gave their front office troubles this past off-season as they had a league-high 10 players file for arbitration, and it was a real challenge to keep the squad together. General Manager Darcy Regier did a fine job in retaining all of his forwards by coming to agreements with most of his arbitration cases before their hearings. Daniel Briere was their first arbitration hearing and he was awarded $5 million, which threatened to throw the Sabres’ entire salary structure out of whack. Doubtless prompted by Briere's shocking award, Regier changed his long-held philosophy and began giving long term deals, insuring Buffalo’s core of remaining together for the next few years. They just completed signing arguably their key player, goaltender Ryan Miller, to complete a highly impressive job by Regier in keeping this team together. The two notable exceptions were Jay McKee (signed a four-year deal with St. Louis) and J.P. Dumont, who was awarded $2.9 million by an arbiter, but due to the Sabres’ rapidly escalating payroll they chose to walk away from the award. Dumont later signed with Nashville.

Forwards:

Buffalo offered up an offensive blueprint for the new NHL by rolling out four talented lines all season, none of which could really be considered their “top” line – this made it virtually impossible for opposing coaches to match up a checking line against the Sabres. If the Daniel Briere/Jochen Hecht/Dumont line was being marked, they’d have the Derek Roy/Maxim Afinogenov/Thomas Vanek line to contend with, along with other talented snipers like Jason Pominville, Ales Kotalik, and Chris Drury - who scored 30 goals for the first time in his career. Tim Connolly reversed years of disappointment to have by far his best season in the NHL, with 55 points in 63 games, and was utterly dominant at times. His serious concussion, suffered in the playoffs against Ottawa, is a concern as Connolly has a history of head injuries, and official word was slow in coming as to his status during the spring. Buffalo re-signed him to a three year deal this summer which indicated some confidence in his ability to bounce back, but as of early September he is not expected to attend training camp. If he is lost for any time, look for Jiri Novotny to be the first callup; Novotny saw limited action last year until the playoffs when he took a regular shift in place of Connolly. Paul Gaustad was a valuable rookie center on the fourth line last year, playing excellent two-way hockey. He’ll chip in the occasional goal but his main contribution this year will be to provide some unique toughness on a squad otherwise built on speed and finesse. Physical winger Adam Mair will also be expected to take on a greater role, with the losses of Mike Grier and Taylor Pyatt to free agency.

In the end, this year’s offence should look much the same as last year, with Briere being the offensive catalyst. He played to a 100-point pace last year (missing 34 games due to abdominal injury) and should approach that total this year. Candidates to replace Dumont on the top line would be team leading scorer Afinogenov, Thomas Vanek, or second year speedy winger Pominville, who excelled after a December callup and cemented his place on the team. Other candidates to make the big club this year on a regular basis would be Dan Paille and Drew Stafford – former star at the University of North Dakota.

A lot can be said about the depth of the Sabres’ offence in that the rookie left winger Vanek – a 25 goal scorer during the regular season – was benched during much of the postseason. He has 50 goal talent with a lethal shot and creative scoring mind, but at times needs a road map to the Buffalo side of the ice. With continued coaching and hard work, he has the greatest potential to dramatically increase his scoring totals this year.

Defence:

On paper, this is a defence without a lot of big names, but – as with the offence – the sum may be greater than its parts. Buffalo will miss longtime veteran Jay McKee who signed as a free agent with the Blues. The shot blocker extraordinaire - who would have been a fool to turn down St. Louis’ overwhelming offer of $16 million for the next four years was replaced on the open market by Jaroslav Spacek, inked for the next three years. Spacek is a different sort of defenceman, who fits more in line with the Sabres’ aggressive offensive philosophy. Anything that might be lost on the defensive end will hopefully be made up on the offensive side of the scoresheet – expect Spacek and young Brian Campbell to anchor the top power play unit. Veterans Henrik Tallinder and Toni Lydman will be expected to absorb the bulk of the play against opponents’ top forwards, while ageless Teppo Numminen returns for one last shot at the Cup. Dmitri Kalinin, a disappointment for years, had an excellent playoff run before succumbing to injury. Depth at the position would be filled by rookie Nathan Paetsch (a near guarantee to slide into the lineup next season after Numminen finally retires). The Sabres are also very high on Owen Sound (OHL) defenceman Andrej Sekera who is likely a few years away.

Goaltending:

Historically this has nearly always been one of Buffalo’s greatest strengths. From Roger Crozier to Don Edwards/Bob Sauve; Tom Barrasso to the legendary Dominik Hasek – there has been no shortage of excellent goaltending for the Sabres. Last year marked the official rookie season of arguably the most successful collegiate goaltender ever – Ryan Miller – who was dominant at Michigan State at the turn of the decade. Miller was solid all year and helped steal games on the rare night where the offense couldn’t dominate. Martin Biron, relegated to a backup role for the first time in a few years, ironically likely drove his market value to an all-time high with a 13-game winning streak over the winter while Miller was on the shelf with a broken thumb. Miller is clearly the goalie for the future, and even though having Biron is a great luxury, it’s a $2.1 million luxury. Don’t be surprised if Biron is dealt away at some point as the Sabres are right up at the cap maximum. Adam Dennis provides support and would be the backup in the event of a deal; Dennis split a highly successful junior career between Guelph and London, winning a Memorial Cup in 2005 with the Knights.

Summary:

Lindy Ruff is the longest-tenured coach in the NHL, having been with Buffalo since 1997. He has earned the respect of his players and is a favourite of the local media, as he is both engaging and not shy about wearing his emotions on his sleeve. The Sabres’ franchise is back on strong ground after the roughest stretch of their history, and appears poised to recapture the popularity of their legendary 70s teams – they recently had to cap season ticket sales to allow a small amount of single game tickets. Cup fever runs high in the Queen City and therein lies a big difference between last year and this: last year’s success was perhaps the most entertaining season in 36 years of Sabres’ hockey. This year – rightly or wrongly - anything less than an appearance in the Cup final will be viewed as a disappointment. The team won’t sneak up on anyone this season, but probably won’t have to – they have the deepest offense in the league, one of the top young goaltenders in the world, and a solid and deep (if unspectacular) defensive corps. With the core of their team still very young, it’s not a stretch to expect them to actually improve by the end of this season. Barring their freakish run of injuries in last year’s playoffs they very likely could have won the Cup this past June – a goal that seems very much within reach this year.

OTTAWA SENATORS

2005-06 record: 52-21-9, 113 points. 1^st in division/1^st in conference. Lost in conference semi-finals to Buffalo.

Head coach: Bryan Murray

General Manager: John Muckler

Home arena: Scotiabank Place

Capacity: 19153

After another wildly successful regular season – finishing first in the East and holding that spot virtually all season – the Ottawa Senators once again failed to live up to lofty expectations, bowing out to the Buffalo Sabres in the second round in only five games. In their defence, that was one of the tightest five-game series in recent memory, with three games going to overtime. Still, at this point nothing less than a Cup finals appearance will appease Sens fans, who run the risk of seeing the Senators soon being labeled as one of the all-time underachieving teams. Often when a team goes through what Ottawa has there is much finger-pointing and an urge to make radical changes.

Ottawa has made no less than three significant changes to this point, starting with the loss of Zdeno Chara to Boston. Suffice to say the Sens will be poorer on defence without him this year, even if his loss was inevitable (and in the long run likely beneficial in a financial sense). One interesting side-story to losing Chara was the loss of assistant GM Peter Chiarelli, also to Boston. It was very curious that Chiarelli signed on with Boston before his official duties with the Senators were completed; both sides made attempts to insure that Chiarelli could do no business during the free-agent period but one would have to assume that he played at least some small role in Boston getting Chara. Chiarelli was summarily dismissed from his last days in Ottawa soon after the loss of big Z.

Speedy winger Martin Havlat seemed to be as good as gone, having postured through the media that he’d be seeking a rich contract when he became an unrestricted free agent after next season. So it was hardly a surprise when he was dealt, along with Brian Smolinski in a three way deal with Chicago and San Jose that netted defenceman Tom Priessing and young talent in defenceman Michal Barinka and center Josh Hennessy - two players that could play important roles for the Sens within a few years.

Finally, the team severed ties with Dominik Hasek after a long drawn-out “will he or won’t he come back?” affair after suffering a serious groin injury last year during the Olympics.

Forwards:

Despite the loss of Havlat, there probably isn’t a team in the world that can boast a top threesome of Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, and Daniel Alfredsson. Before injuries, Spezza was a strong contender for the Art Ross trophy while Alfredsson was an early Hart trophy front-runner. Dany Heatley managed 50 goals and could easily match that this year in another bid for the Richard trophy. Havlat’s departure may appear to thin out the offensive ranks a bit, but make no mistake – this team is very deep (also remember that Havlat only played 18 games last season). The captain Alfredsson was the victim of some harsh criticism following the playoff loss to Buffalo (accentuated by him getting torched on a shorthanded series-winning overtime goal by Jason Pominville), but management wisely looked at the overall picture and retained the highly talented winger. It’s likely the top three will remain split up among the top two lines, with second year winger Patrick Eaves a good candidate to take a spot alongside Spezza and Heatley. If this is the case, Eaves could see a huge jump in his point totals, with 30 goals and 70 points not out of the question. Peter Schaefer and center Mike Fisher, while not as electric as their all-star teammates, are outstanding all around forwards who have 60 point capability. Chris Neil may often play the part of team goon, but his 16 goals prove that he’s more Tiger Williams than Dave Brown. Filling out the center positions are Antoine Vermette, who chipped in 21 goals while getting virtually no power play time, and Chris Kelly who added 30 points and was a +21 playing the defensive forward role. Veteran Dean McAmmond was also signed from St. Louis and will provide two-way support.

Defence:

The obvious top story here is the loss of giant defenseman Zdeno Chara. The 6’7” Slovakian left for Boston, but what remains should still be a strong corps. Wade Redden was and is their best all-around defenseman – he was re-signed for two years and will likely take on more responsibilities this year. Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov return as the defensive stalwarts – these two will be saddled with the task of handling much of the opposition’s best (although it’s hard to shake the image of Volchenkov coughing up the puck against Buffalo last year in one of the all-time wild playoff games won by the Sabres 7-6). Newcomers include Tom Preissing and Joe Corvo - two very promising offensive additions acquired from the Sharks and Kings respectively. They both should see ample time on the power play, and in turn second year pro Andrej Meszaros hopes to build upon his outstanding rookie season, compiling 39 points and a +34 rating. I wouldn’t expect his point total to be any higher mostly due to the two new additions who will likely steal most of Meszaros’ special teams opportunities.

Goaltending:

Ray Emery was made into a bit of a scapegoat last season and in the playoffs. While he did give up a few high-profile soft goals in the postseason, he was not the reason Ottawa went home early - after game one of the Sabres series the high-profile forwards of the Senators scored no more goals at five-on-five. Regardless, it seems that the Senators front office are also lacking faith in Emery as their new number one goalie, so this summer Ottawa came to terms with former Carolina goalie Martin Gerber, who had a fine season with the Cup champs. Gerber owned the starting job for most of the year before losing the starting job to Cam Ward for most of the playoffs. Gerber signed a three-year deal with the Senators.

Summary:

It’s very possible that this is the “last chance” for this version of the Senator franchise, however you choose to define the phrase. Here is another team that the fanbase is counting on for a run to the finals, but the difference here may be a major rebuilding in Ottawa if they again underachieve. Again, the perception is that this is one of the most underachieving franchises in recent history and last year’s dominant regular season followed by a relatively quick playoff exit did nothing to disprove this. Yet to the credit of the front office, radical changes were not made as they should realize that for a few bounces that could have gone their way in the series loss to Buffalo, they could have advanced to face Carolina in the conference finals. Often times the degree of chance is dismissed in all sports, and hockey especially, and only a small amount of luck could have been the difference between a second round exit and the Stanley Cup. The franchise is mostly content to give this core one last try to advance to the finals, and they should be viewed as one of the top handful of teams to be able to contend this year.

BOSTON BRUINS

2005-06 record: 29-37-16, 74 points. 5^th in division/13^th in conference. Missed playoffs.

Head coach: Dave Lewis

General Manager: Peter Chiarelli

Home arena: TD BankNorth Garden

Capacity: 17565

Wow, for a franchise that has been alienating fans and media for the better part of the past decade, the Bruins generated quick headlines early in the summer by making three major on-ice moves and initiating a front office shakeup. Finally loosening their grip on Bobby Orr, ageless Harry Sinden stepped down from the Bruins’ front office after over 30 years running the Boston Bruins’ ship in various capacities, from head coach in the Orr/Phil Esposito days, to becoming General Manager and presiding over various incarnations of the black and gold; the Don Cherry-led Big Bad Bruins of the late 70s through the talented squads led by Ray Bourque and Cam Neely in the 80s and early 90s. Not having Harry Sinden around anymore may be less of an organizational impact as it would have been a few years back, but the symbolic nature of the move is huge. Generations of hockey fans in New England know of no other man leading the team, and this now represents a new era. Previous to this long-rumoured yet still surprising move the Bruins began their house-cleaning in early summer by firing head coach Mike Sullivan, and replacing him with former Detroit coach Dave Lewis. They hired a new young General Manager - Peter Chiarelli - away from the Ottawa Senators, which cleared the path for Sinden to formally step aside.

With the new management team beginning to take shape, they wasted little time in popping the cork on the first day of free agency by signing towering defenceman Zdeno Chara to an equally-towering contract for USD$7.5 million per year for five years. There are two ways to view this – from a roster perspective and from a long-term financial perspective. There’s no way to look at this and think this doesn’t help the Bruins on-ice situation tremendously – Chara is a beast and has developed into one of the premier defencemen in the world. Yet there’s also reason to believe that this contract may cripple the Bruins for years, as they’ve committed a huge percentage of payroll to one player. Joe Thornton’s exit out of town last year was in part due to his huge contract; by dealing him for cheaper parts they were better poised to mold the rest of the team, and yet theoretically they’re in the same spot now, just with a different player. In the end this signing will likely be judged not on Chara’s performance but on the young (read: less expensive) players the Bruins will have to eventually surround him with.

Boston also swapped defencemen with Phoenix, giving up Nick Boynton and gaining hometown native Paul Mara. This deal should prove beneficial to Boston; with Nick Boynton last year the Bruins had a defenceman who could not adapt to the faster league. Mara brings a more creative and talented game to Boston and coupled with the strong defensive play of Chara these additions should improve the Bruin defence tremendously, one that played poorly last year, giving up over 32 shots per game - sixth-worst in the league.

The third major move was signing free agent center Marc Savard to a four year deal. Savard has always been a talented center who finally broke through last year with a huge season, notching 97 points for the Atlanta Thrashers. Cynics will point out that he’ll no longer have Ilya Kovalchuk to dish the puck to in Boston so anything south of say 80 points could bring the heat to Savard and the Bruins, especially since the Bruins have committed $20 million to him over the next four years. Nevertheless the addition of Savard gives Boston more balance to their offence, enabling them to hopefully spread more goals between lines.

Forwards:

There has been such a string of negativity in Boston towards the Bruins in recent years, and last year’s trade of Joe Thornton to San Jose – followed by his subsequent Art Ross and Hart trophy awards – only made it worse. The perception of the penurious nature of the combination of Harry Sinden and owner Jeremy Jacobs was first presented over a decade ago in the local press and has gathered steam exponentially over the years to the point where it is the knee-jerk analytical reaction to nearly every move or failure by the Bruin organization. It really helps to focus on each move individually to see – while there may be some strains of truth to this argument – many times the answer is not that simple. For example, in the deal for Thornton, the Bruins received three players, including winger Marco Sturm (along with center Wayne Primeau and defenceman Brad Stuart). The Bruins – and Joe Thornton himself – were wallowing along in mediocrity and this deal helped to signal to the players – and fanbase – that the status quo was not acceptable. On the ice, it created more roster flexibility – Sturm joined Patrice Bergeron and Brad Boyes (who came over from San Jose in a fantastic trade two years ago) for a first line that I anticipate will be that much better this year. The Bruins inked the 21-year old Bergeron to a long-term deal (five years) this summer, anticipating him leading the Bruins offence through the end of the decade. Bergeron is a flashy and fun player, and should be their best forward for the length of the contract. Boyes enjoyed an outstanding rookie season, notching 26 goals and 69 points – he should build upon that this year and reach those totals again. Last summer if you had told Boston fans that they’d be adding Phil Kessel to the team in one year they would have been thrilled – Kessel was pegged as the top pick in the 2006 draft until perception of a down season at the University of Minnesota and a widespread belief that he was lackluster at the World Junior tournament in Vancouver (despite leading the tournament in points) hurt his reputation. As a result he slid all the way to fifth in the draft where the Bruins were eager to snatch him up. Kessel could still end up being the most talented player to come out of this draft and at his peak could be a 40-goal scorer for the Bruins in the near future – in August he was enticed to forego the remainder of his collegiate career and signed a three-year deal with Boston. If he plays with Savard and winger Glen Murray – who occasionally looked helpless without Thornton as his center, this could be the makings of a dynamic and fun second scoring line in Boston, and if he plays with the top duo, 30 goals is not far off. Depth may be a problem, as the only reliable forward beyond the top lines is winger P.J. Axelsson, one of the better defensive forwards in the NHL. Wayne Primeau never has really shown the ability that made him a first round pick back in 1994 (although he did score one of last year’s highlight-reel goals). Anything that he can give on a third or fourth line will be welcome. Other wingers that will be vying for time are veteran Shean Donovan and wingers Petr Tenkrat and Yan Stastny. Mike Mowers should be the team’s fourth center.

Defence:

The acquisition of Chara gives Boston a clear number one defenseman for the first time in years. Chara will play minutes in all situations, and with Brad Stuart (picked number three overall in the 1998 draft) as their number two immediately should give Bruin goaltenders confidence. Stuart is an outstanding understated defenceman who should be in his prime, and don’t discount the fact that this is his contract year. The two may be split up with Chara playing with second year defenceman Milan Jurcina – Jurcina has good upside and would benefit from playing with Chara - he didn't put up a lot of points last year but expect his offensive contributions to increase as his comfort level grows. Paul Mara brings a talented offensive flair to the Boston defence - he scored 47 points, 29 of which were on the powerplay. Much the same as their offense, Boston may have a problem with depth with Mark Stuart, Andrew Alberts, Nathan Dempsey and Jason York and vying for the fifth and sixth spots. David Tanabe was awarded $1.275 million in arbitration and the Bruins walked away from the award, enabling him to become an unrestricted free agent. This was a bit surprising - Tanabe was a mid-first round pick as recently as 1999 but with the Boston’s numerous additions this off-season he was deemed expendable.

Goaltending:

Goaltending should be fine if not spectacular this season with veteran Tim Thomas and young Hannu Toivonen sharing duties. Thomas was a career (minor leaguer/backup) who by circumstance took on the top spot in the Bruins’ crease last January, and excelled, which ended up making former number one goalie Andrew Raycroft expendable. A summer deal with Toronto gave up Raycroft who seemed to have lost his way in Boston – this could pan out very well for Boston in the future as they gained highly-regarded prospect Tuukka Rask who should project to be the Bruins’ starting goalie in about three to four years.

Summary:

On the negative side, the Chara and Savard signings could haunt them. In the salary cap era committing that much money to one player is potentially crippling. The Bruins’ front office will have to be creative and proactive in shaping their roster, filling out the remaining holes with talented “no-name” (read: inexpensive) players if they plan on competing, rather than becoming a top-heavy team – a few marquee names may carry you through the regular season, but the NHL chews up unbalanced teams come playoff time (see Philadelphia Flyers).

New England hockey fans will love the young forwards Boyes and Bergeron leading them over the next few years, and if Phil Kessel keeps his focus and can contribute the way Boston hopes there is potential for a lot of fun for Bruins fans this year. They should again be on the bubble of making the playoffs and if everything goes right they could find themselves playing meaningful hockey come mid-April. This team doesn’t appear ready to join the upper echelon of the league – or even the division – yet, as Ottawa and Buffalo show no signs of coming back to the pack, and depth for the Bruins is a problem this year. Yet Boston’s time is coming closer – this is a team that in two or three years could be a power and could be a sleeper team this year.

MONTREAL CANADIENS

2005-06 record: 42-31-9, 93 points. 3^rd in division/7^th in conference. Lost in first round to Carolina.

Head coach: Guy Carbonneau

General Manager: Bob Gainey

Home arena: Bell Centre

Capacity: 21273

After a slow start last season, the Canadiens began the long slow climb to playoff contention, qualifying for the postseason despite being outscored on the season, 243-247. Probably the single-biggest story for the Habs last year was their goaltending – but of course the name was hardly the one that would have been expected. Former Hart Trophy winner Jose Theodore suffered through a nightmare of a year, from off-ice accusations of gambling and steroid involvement, to injuries and a dramatic dropoff in his overall play. Instead French-born goaltender Cristobal Huet took over top netminding duties in the winter and was so good during the second half in nearly singlehandedly bringing the Habs to the playoffs that he should have received Vezina consideration, even having played in only 36 games. Montreal seemed on their way to upsetting the second-seeded Carolina Hurricanes after two games, scoring 12 goals en route to winning both games in Carolina. In game three the Hurricanes switched goalies, introducing Cam Ward as the Hurricanes’ starter and the Canadiens lost Saku Koivu to a serious eye injury (which nearly ended his career). Carolina rattled off four straight wins to end Montreal’s season.

Offence:

The biggest news for the Habs this summer was the free agent signing of the enigmatic Sergei Samsonov. He’ll be counted on for big things in Montreal, although it pays to bear in mind that only twice in eight NHL seasons has Sammy even hit 70 points, with 75 being a high back in 2001 (he also notched a career high in goals that season with 29). It’s time that Samsonov ultimately be filed in the “he is what he is” category – he’ll always dazzle, but he’s not a superstar 100-point type player, as many pundits and fans expect him to be. Still, this is a valuable offensive addition to a team that finished 20^th out of 30 in scoring last season. The Canadiens could form a very potent top power play with Samsonov playing alongside captain Saku Koivu and Alexei Kovalev. Often Koivu centered Michael Ryder and 23 goal rookie Christopher Higgins. If Mike Ribeiro centers Samsonov and Kovalev, look for a good statistical season from him, in the range of 60-70 points. Montreal shouldn’t expect much point production beyond the top two lines, with centers Tomas Plekanec and Radek Bonk and aggressive wingers Garth Murray and Steve Begin. Begin is a popular player in Montreal, with his breakneck style of play. The energy he brings is a good contrast to the general lack of physical play for the top forwards on the team. Mike Johnson tallied 54 points which is probably his peak at this point in his career.

Defence:

The Montreal defence won’t be compared with the legendary Larry Robinson/Serge Savard/Guy Lapointe defence. Andrei Markov is ever-improving, and led the defence with 46 points last year while earning a +13. He and Sheldon Souray should anchor the blueline for the first power play unit and could both approach the 50 point barrier. Beyond that the Habs need improvement. Mike Komisarek probably shows the most promise of any Montreal defenceman – he’ll never be a point-scorer but if he develops into a reliable defensive stalwart it will be a bonus for Montreal. Craig Rivet and Francis Bouillon are average defencemen called on to play a major role for the Canadiens, while veteran Mathieu Dandenault will likely round out the top six. Depth will be provided by Mark Streit. Rookie Jean-Philippe Cote, a stay at home defenceman, will hope to stick with the squad this year after playing eight games on Montreal last year.

Goaltending:

The other major Canadiens’ signing this summer was the re-signing of goaltender Cristobal Huet to a two-year deal. Enough was written about Huet last year as he went from relative unknown to hero in Quebec, taking over from the fallen Jose Theodore and becoming the number one man in net. How long that will remain is uncertain, and all eyes will be on Huet to match his stellar second-half performance for the entire season. The Habs also inked David Aebischer for one season, solidifying the position as a backup to Huet. David Aebischer is three years younger and likely has a higher ceiling than Huet – if the Canadiens slip this year they could start having Aebischer share number one duties with Huet and create a competition.

Summary:

Huet opens up this season as the number one goalie for the first time in his career. Not many have questioned the talent of David Aebischer in case Huet falters, but there are concerns as to whether each can carry a team for an entire season. The outlook for the Canadiens this year is uncertain – this appears to be a decent-at-best team, one that will be able to compete most nights with any team, but lacking the overall depth and star power to reel off enough winning streaks to put distance between them and the rest of the league. In the end, it remains to be seen whether what they currently have will be enough to make the playoffs as this team will probably be as good as it was last year – the only problem is that a number of teams just behind them appear to have improved. That may be enough to keep the Canadiens on the outside looking in come April.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

2005-06 record: 41-33-8, 90 points. 4^th in division/9^th in conference. Missed playoffs.

Head coach: Paul Maurice

General Manager: John Ferguson, Jr.

Home arena: Air Canada Centre

Capacity: 18819

As fans of the five other Canadian NHL franchises like to remind their TO brethren – it has now been 39 years and counting since the Leafs last raised the Cup. Changes were needed and the most noticeable will be behind the bench as Pat Quinn was shown the door and replaced by former Hartford/Carolina head coach Paul Maurice. It seemed clear that a new vision was needed by the end of last year, and some big name veterans were jettisoned in the post-season housecleaning. The Eric Lindros experiment is wisely over – his name is clearly greater than his current skill level, and he now moves on to Dallas. Other vets who won’t be back are Jason Allison, Luke Richardson and Aki Berg.

The Paul Maurice era hopefully begins a long-overdue movement towards focusing on drafting and developing players from within their farm system. Yet General Manager John Ferguson, Jr. remains and he ultimately has been the somewhat failed architect of the Toronto club. His stamp on the team still remains as he did enter the free agent market, signing a few veterans this summer. Ferguson will be next on the chopping block if the Leafs don’t take advantage of the remaining years in Mats Sundin’s career and show progress within the next year or two.

Offence:

Underrated captain Mats Sundin begins his 11th season with the Leafs. Sundin has occasionally been the recipient of criticism that he saves his best games for international competition, but the obvious logic behind that criticism is that he has played with vastly superior talent in the Olympics/World Championships than he ever has on the Leafs. Furthermore, coach Pat Quinn’s creative lineup construction often left Sundin outside of the top three in ice time for forwards in crucial games, an almost inconceivable error of judgment as Sundin has virtually always been the best player on the Leafs. Sundin heads up a decent cast of centers with Toronto native and veteran Michael Peca being signed away from the Edmonton Oilers for one year at $2.5 million; the Leafs should hope they’ve signed the Peca from the most recent playoffs, not the one who looked lost for most of the regular season. He will likely play on the third line with second year man Kyle Wellwood looking to improve on a very solid rookie campaign. Wellwood was a prolific scorer in the OHL and may be a great key to the success of the Leafs. The wingers are question marks for Toronto with the most promising being Alex Steen, son of former Winnipeg Jet Thomas Steen. Steen scored 45 points last year – he’s likely still about two years away from peaking but should reach the 50 point mark this year. Agitator Darcy Tucker – probably outside of Toronto the least-favourite player in the league this side of Sean Avery – had a career year last year with 28 goals, but he’ll need to improve his even-strength play to be able to duplicate that effort. Alexei Ponikarovsky not only chipped in 21 goals but was a +15 on a team that gave up 270 goals while only scoring 257. 19 of his goals were at even strength or short-handed – both were tops on the team. He’s probably the most unknown talent on the team. Wrapping up the scoring lines is Nik Antropov – the longtime enigma; watching him play at the right time, you’d swear he’d score more than the 12 goals (in 57 games) he did. At this point Antropov is not likely to produce much more than he had, and if he gets 20 goals or 50 points the Leafs should be thrilled. Peca’s third line wingers will most likely be veterans Jeff O’Neill and Chad Kilger, three players who have all but surely peaked in their careers. Peca especially hopes to rebound – despite an outstanding playoff run he had arguably the worst regular season of his career. The fourth line will likely be centered by Matt Stajan with any number of rookies looking to make the squad on wing, such as Aleksander Suglobov or Ben Ondrus.

Defence:

The Leafs’ defence was led last year by fantastic seasons from Bryan McCabe and Tomas Kaberle, scoring 68 and 67 points respectively. McCabe was resigned for two more years this offseason, insuring at least the Leafs’ top power play unit will be a constant threat. To bolster the losses of Luke Richardson and Aki Berg they dipped into the free agent market and signed Pavel Kubina from Tampa and Hal Gill from Boston. Kubina has very good offensive skills but the $5 million per year contract he was given is questionable – the Leafs have a need for defensive defenceman and Kubina doesn’t exactly fill that need. Hal Gill looks like a bad signing, as his skills have deteriorated. He’ll never get more than a handful of points and his slow skating could cause nightmares for Toronto goalies. Aside from veteran tough guy Wade Belak, the back end of the Toronto defence is highly inexperienced, with Carlo Colaiacovo, Staffan Kronwall and Ian White all battling for the final two spots; that final defensive pairing is likely to be in flux for months – in terms of fantasy spots, aside from the top three slots there’s no potential here outside of Colaiacovo who is likely still a few years away from getting enough ice time to produce consistently.

Goaltending:

Likely the most noticeable problem for the Leafs last year was goaltending, with Billion-Dollar Eddie Belfour finally showing his age in having a poor season and the team’s lack of faith in backup Mikael Tellqvist. A trade with the Boston Bruins gained them their new number one goalie, former rookie of the year Andrew Raycroft, as they effectively severed ties with Belfour. This move at worst shouldn’t backfire on the Leafs this year - they immediately gain an experienced, successful, yet young goaltender. But if Raycroft can’t regain his Calder trophy form they’ll be forced to turn to Tellqvist and a host of minor league goaltenders. J.S. Aubin saw limited action last year but was undefeated in 11 games. The future at this point is in the hands of Justin Pogge, who was declared Canadian Junior Goaltender of the Year with the Calgary Hitmen (WHL) last season.

Summary:

The Maple Leafs are not a bad team, but a team in transition. There’s a dichotomy of talent here – a number of veterans at or near the tail end of their career coupled with a number of first and second year players. Logically this would indicate a necessity to win in the immediate future, capitalizing on the time left for the veterans. However, it’s not going out on a limb to say that the Leafs aren’t going to win the Cup this year, despite some talent. Toronto also has a lot of money tied up in a few players – Mats Sundin and newly-resigned defenceman Bryan McCabe will make nearly $15 million between the two of them. Combine that with the $5 million they’re giving to Pavel Kubina and you have nearly half the cap room tied up in just three players. In the end, there’s just not enough for the Leafs to compete in this very challenging division, and another year will go by where fans in Toronto have to visit the Hall of Fame to see the Cup rather than have it paraded down Yonge Street.