Eastern Conference finals preview: Buffalo Sabres (1) vs. Ottawa Senators (4)

2007 EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

#1 Buffalo vs. #4 Ottawa
Thursday, May 10, 7:00 p.m. at Buffalo
Saturday, May 12, 8:00 p.m. at Buffalo
Monday, May 14, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
Wednesday, May 16, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
* Saturday, May 19, 2:00 p.m. at Buffalo
* Monday, May 21, 7:00 p.m. at Ottawa
* Wednesday, May 23, 7:00 p.m. at Buffalo

Series overview:

If the NHL powers-that-be wanted to cherry-pick two teams to feature the skill and excitement of the post-lockout era, they couldn't have done better than this – the 113 point Buffalo Sabres against the 105 point Ottawa Senators is the marquee match-up that neutral hockey fans have wanted to see all year; featuring the two best teams in the Eastern Conference facing off for the right to play for the Stanley Cup. There's a lot of intrigue and anticipation in advance of this meeting - will the two highest scoring teams in the league deliver an offensive explosion? Will the bad-blood from this season spill over into the playoffs and result in more free-for-alls like we saw from these two back in February? Can Ottawa exercise their playoff demons and finally become conference champions after years of unfulfilled expectations? Will Buffalo be able to turn up their game to the high standards they set for themselves in the regular season? Can either team legitimately be determined a favourite in this series?

Why Buffalo should win the series:

Going by nearly every number possible, Buffalo - until proven otherwise - is still the best team in hockey. There's no need to review all the stats again - simply, this team can score in bunches and from every line, an attack Ottawa has yet to come close to facing with the very top-heavy offenses featured by the Pittsburgh Penguins and New Jersey Devils. And while the Sabres didn't exactly fill the net during their first two rounds, the last two games against the New York Rangers were possibly the best they played thus far, leading to the impression that they're finding their "playoff legs" so to speak. The primary reason Buffalo found their game was due to their return to aggressive puck pursuit - they have to be willing to take risks and force the opposing defence to take hits in their own zone to clear the puck. By dictating the style of play to their advantage they not only create numerous quality scoring chances, they in turn prevent any play in their own zone, keeping their defence fresh.

Perhaps most encouraging to the team, and their fans, is that they have no injuries to speak of (in stark contrast to last season). What injuries they may eventually face they now can counter with unprecedented and unmatched depth, most notably standout rookie Drew Stafford who, with the return of spirited forward Paul Gaustad, finds himself in the press box strictly due to the numbers game. If Buffalo needs to turn to Stafford in this series, it can hardly be deemed a drop-off.

With all the talk about how explosive Buffalo's offence is, they actually do have one aspect of the team that is underrated. After last Friday's miracle finish in Buffalo (where Chris Drury scored with seven seconds left to tie the game at one, and Maxim Afinogenov won it in overtime) Ryan Miller was legitimately upset in the postgame interviews, saying he "let the team down" by letting in the late goal by Martin Straka. Just to review, it was the only goal he let in all game and it was a wicked wrist shot screened by his defenceman Brian Campbell.

Miller has arrived as a fearsome playoff goaltender who cannot be judged on statistics alone - his penchant for foiling breakaways may be unparalleled in the NHL and despite the eventual emergence of the Buffalo offence he was the primary reason the Sabres advanced past the New York Rangers in round two.

Why Buffalo should be afraid:

There is some sense that the Buffalo Sabres have peaked and are cracking a bit under either the intense physical play of the postseason or some phantom weight of being the favourites. I'm not sure how much stock to put in rather ethereal characteristics but there are a number of concrete concerns for the Sabres. If there has been any knock on Buffalo this year, and Ottawa themselves made reference to it earlier in the season, it is that they can be intimidated and forced off the puck. Ottawa is not afraid to play on the edge and should be expected to do so in this series, even at the risk of playing shorthanded (which against Buffalo might not be much of a risk - read on). If Buffalo is forced into playing more conservatively - shying away from contact rather than initiating it - they have a tendency to not play their fast transition game and also become pinned in their own zone, where their offensive attack usually starts. As good as the Sabres defence is in terms of moving the puck through three zones to their forwards and defending on the rush, they have shown weaknesses when faced with a strong forecheck and cycling system, often to the point of either bad giveaways or falling into penalty trouble.

It seems almost inexplicable that a team as powerful as Buffalo's could be so bad on the powerplay. Yet they've gone well past the point of "small sample size" to the realization that they have a flawed approach on the man-advantage. Rather than using their speed and skill, they have become predictable in their approach to set up the point men for shots which has resulted in cashing in on just over 15% of their opportunities in the postseason. With a skilled and aggressive Ottawa defence, the Buffalo coaching staff simply must redefine their approach on the power play or they will lose this series.

Why Ottawa should win the series:

Although Anaheim has made relatively short work of their opponents thus-far this playoff season, Ottawa can make a strong case for being the premier team through the first two rounds. They dispatched the Penguins and Devils with ease, growing stronger as the games went on. They're leading all teams with 3.3 goals per game in the postseason. Most encouraging to Ottawa fans, their best players are finally playing like it: Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley (who has become somewhat of a Sabre-killer, echoes of Michel Goulet from a past generation) have gelled and are playing as well as they have all season, terrorizing opposing defences. Heatley in particular scored eight goals in as many games against the Sabres this season and the Sabres must find a way to prevent him from getting comfortable in the Buffalo zone.

After losing Zdeno Chara to Boston in the off-season, it was expected by many that the Ottawa defence would take a hit, but after initial growing pains their defensive unit has become – if not well-known – one of the best in the NHL. In particular they’ve been doing an excellent job clogging offensive lanes and blocking opposing shots. Anton Volchenkov led the league in blocked shots during the regular season and is at it again in the playoffs with 39 thus far, with teammate Chris Phillips not far behind with 34. With the Senators' defence stepping up while on the penalty kill, don't be surprised to see a number of quality shorthanded chances for Ottawa.

Ottawa's power play has been deadly at a 22.7% rate in the playoffs thus far. Combine that with the Sabres' difficulties in shutting down the Rangers' talented power play unit and that could spell doom for Buffalo, who is at less than 80% on the penalty kill through two rounds.

Why Ottawa should be afraid:

For all the talk about how well the top line is playing, they still have demonstrated a lack of consistent scoring threats from their other lines. Unless their secondary scorers like Antoine Vermette, Mike Comrie, and Mike Fisher can at the very least put sustained pressure on the Buffalo defence, let alone score, the Senators could find themselves behind in this series quickly. They will also need to better the Sabres at even-strength play, a difficult task.

Goaltender Ray Emery has proven many doubters wrong this season, taking the number one job and establishing himself as a quality netminder. However, he has yet to face consistent pressure all year as he is about to against Buffalo - he must come to grips with the fact that he let in some less-than-stellar goals in last year's loss to Buffalo. He's a far better - and more confident - goalie now but how will he react to giving up a bad goal this season? (…and on everyone’s minds: will Ryan Miller be a willing fight partner should the teams choose to go that route?)

While distant playoff history is not a quality guide to determine the outcome of this or any series, it must nevertheless be said that the Ottawa franchise will feel pressure at least until they make it to the finals. It becomes imperative for Ottawa to take at least one of the first two games in Buffalo lest they start questioning themselves en route to another failed postseason.

Random useless but fun playoff facts:

The Sabres have won each of the three playoff meetings between the two clubs, each being a memorable series in its own right. In 1997 the teams went to overtime of game seven before Derek Plante ripped a slapshot off of Ron Tugnutt's glove to win the series. 1999 saw the first-place Senators get swept and the shine first began to fade from Alexei Yashin (zero points after finishing the season tied for second in goals with 44). Last season's tight five-game series featured four one-goal games and ended on Jason Pominville's shorthanded tally in overtime. Buffalo head coach Lindy Ruff has established himself as one of the better playoff coaches in recent memory, taking the Sabres to four trips to the conference finals in his nine years at the helm – add one Stanley Cup victory to that resume and he will rightfully take his place among the better coaches of all-time.

My pick:

One understated key for Buffalo might be how well top defenseman Henrik Tallinder handles Ottawa's top line. Especially at home, Buffalo can match Tallinder (with partner Toni Lydman) with the deadly Ottawa line, and add pressure with playoff revelation Dainius Zubrus who overall has easily been Buffalo's best forward in the postseason, not shying away from quality dirty work along the boards in all zones.

Buffalo needs to avoid the penalty box (perhaps on both ends, due to their weak power play) as their five-on-five play in the playoffs is as impressive as it was in the regular season, outscoring their opponents at nearly a two-to-one margin through 11 games.

As for who will eventually win this best-of-seven – nobody can predict. The epitome of a toss-up series, the end result may very well turn on a random bounce of the puck or unforeseen circumstance that forces otherwise inexperienced players into action. As touched upon above, Ottawa will win this series if they can establish a constant pressure in the Buffalo zone, leaving Buffalo scrambling to create offense and ending up in the penalty box, where the Senators will pick apart Buffalo. Buffalo will win this series if they quickly and effectively neutralize the Senators' top line and can keep them frustrated - Ottawa won't quite have the quality depth to keep up with all four Buffalo lines if the Sabres can consistently roll them (read: quickly move the puck out of the Buffalo zone and stay out of penalty trouble).

I’ve gone back and forth between thinking each team was going to win this series - no result (other than it only going four or five games) could be seen as unexpected; I would think that if Ottawa can take three of the first five, they will clinch it at home in game six. However in the end, I can’t go with anything other than this series going seven games and if that happens, I give it to the home team. Buffalo in seven.

Playoff preview: New Jersey Devils (2) vs. Ottawa Senators (5)

to be published at SportsBlurb.com

Schedule:

Thursday, April 26 7:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey
Saturday, April 28 8:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey VERSUS
Monday, April 30 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
Wednesday, May 2 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
*Saturday, May 5 8:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey VERSUS
*Monday, May 7 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
*Wednesday, May 9 7:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey

Series overview:

Seen in simplistic terms, this looks to be a series between an offensive giant vs. a defensive one. These two teams finished one win and two points apart in the standings but their styles are very different – how will the always defensively-conscious New Jersey Devils stymie the dangerous offensive attack (288 goals, second in NHL) of the Ottawa Senators while scoring enough to win?

Why New Jersey should win the series:

Despite their meager goal-scoring totals for the season, New Jersey has more offensive talent than their overall statistics show. With six goals in as many games (and leading all playoff scorers), emerging star Zach Parise showed why he's a good bet to be a steady 30-40 goal scorer for years to come. Relative old hand Scott Gomez leads the league with nine points, and Brian Rafalski, Patrick Elias, and Brian Gionta all are in the top-10 in points. Their front-end talent forms a swarming threat to opposing defences. New Jersey's power play clicked at a 25% rate against Tampa Bay. There's always the Martin Brodeur factor, as he had one of the greatest seasons of his career, but he’ll have to improve on his play over the first round, as Ottawa sports a much deeper attack than he faced from the Lightning.

Why New Jersey should be afraid:

Brodeur did not have a consistent first-round series against Tampa Bay – yes, his overall numbers were good but games two and three were marked by shaky goals that kept the Lightning in the series much longer than New Jersey would have liked. Defensively this team will still have to answer questions – they consistently hold teams to low goal totals but they will need to play out of character and bring a much more physical style of play to neutralize the dangerous Ottawa offence. The Devils should be able to keep the odd-man rushes to a minimum but if the Senators can develop a cycle in the New Jersey zone, the Devils will not have the brawn to defend against it for long. Finally, despite the front-end talent of New Jersey, the fact remains that they (in)famously play a shutdown style of hockey; opportunistic to a fault. With the talent and discipline in place it makes for successful seasons but the big challenge will be if Ottawa takes early leads – will New Jersey have the skill and mindset to change their style of play, and open up the attack more than they’re comfortable with? And if so, beyond the few big guns they do have, who will provide scoring support? Their lack of scoring depth often doesn’t hurt them, but against a premier opponent like Ottawa it could prove fatal.

And finally this late info: Patrick Elias will miss at least game one because of what is being called a cold - obviously very bad news for New Jersey.

Why Ottawa should win the series:

The importance of Ottawa’s first round defeat of the Pittsburgh Penguins cannot be overstated. Through the past decade, the franchise has had great regular season success but has never matched expectations in the post-season; qualifying for the playoffs in each of the past ten seasons (including six 100+ point seasons) Ottawa had only won five of 14 playoff series and advanced to the conference finals once (losing to New Jersey in 2003). Combining that pressure and the public’s fascination with the sudden rise and stability of the Penguins, the Senators were in many ways an afterthought in the first round. After a convincing five game beating, the Senators served notice that they are still a premier team. Their top players are well-known: Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and Captain Daniel Alfredsson, but general hockey fans may not be aware of the depth in this team - players like Mike Fisher and Chris Kelly make this team a true threat. Among Ottawa skaters, only Kelly (three) and Mike Comrie (two) had more than one even-strength goal against Pittsburgh. Finally, goalie Ray Emery took a beating last year for spotty play in the post-season – his play was poor, but he was an undeserved scapegoat. This season he emerged as the clear number one and should give his team confidence that he will back up the team after any breakdowns in front of him.

Why Ottawa should be afraid:

Having just complimented their lesser-known lights, their stars need to step up and play better to advance - Heatley and Spezza in particular. Each played more than 63 minutes of even-strength play during the Pittsburgh series and their line never scored a goal. It should go without saying that that performance won't be good enough to win against the tighter and more disciplined Devils. Despite the increased swagger the Sens should possess, there will still be talk about underachieving until they someday get to the Cup finals - only the team itself can quell such doubtless-annoying talk in the media and amongst the fans by winning, so in some ways the pressure remains.

Random useless but fun playoff facts:

Ottawa and New Jersey have met twice in the post-season, each team taking one series. The first meeting in 1998 saw the Senators pull a shocking first-round upset of the Devils – 14 wins separated the two in the standings but Ottawa prevailed in six low-scoring games. The 2003 meeting was in the conference finals where the Devils returned the favour in knocking off the President’s Trophy-winning Senators in a 3-2 seventh game.

My pick:

New Jersey had what could be called a typical year for them – top of the division, lowest goals-against in the conference, just (barely) enough offense to win. Ottawa hid under the radar for most of this season - they got off to a slow start, had goaltending troubles, adjusted to major off-season losses (most notably Zdeno Chara, Martin Havlat), but had a fantastic second-half.

Due much to the nature of the modern NHL, the overall parity has already given us a few match-ups in the early rounds that would have been worthy as Conference Finals, and this series could be another one. Nevertheless it looks from here that the Senators are just that much stronger in every zone. The Devils had difficulty with the rather one-dimensional Lightning while the Senators disposed of the Penguins with much more ease than many would have thought possible. The Devils had great success this season but don’t have the look of a tough playoff team. Whereas the Senators could have been accused of playing cautiously in the past, the early-season emergence of Ray Emery in part helped the team play with a confidence that could prove deadly to their opponents through the playoffs. Ottawa’s road to the Cup is proving to be very challenging which in the end could play to their benefit - it’s likely they’ll have to get through four 100+ point teams to win it all. Taking the Elias absence into account, the Senators will get at least one step further as they should defeat New Jersey in 5.

Playoff preview: Buffalo Sabres (1) vs. New York Rangers (6)

to be published at SportsBlurb.com

Schedule:

Wednesday, April 25 7:00 p.m. NY Rangers at Buffalo VERSUS
Friday, April 27 7:00 p.m. NY Rangers at Buffalo VERSUS
Sunday, April 29 2:00 p.m. Buffalo at NY Rangers NBC
Tuesday, May 1 7:00 p.m. Buffalo at NY Rangers VERSUS
* Friday, May 4 7:00 p.m. NY Rangers at Buffalo VERSUS
* Sunday, May 6 2:00 p.m. Buffalo at NY Rangers NBC
* Tuesday, May 8 7:00 p.m. NY Rangers at Buffalo VERSUS

Series overview:

Each of these clubs finished their first round in relatively quick fashion – the Rangers waxing the Atlanta Thrashers in four easy games while the Sabres survived five surprisingly arduous games to eliminate the New York Islanders. Both teams are well-rested and healthy. Although the Sabres won each of the four regular-season meetings between the teams this year, three went to overtime and all were played before New Year’s Day, so throw those stats out the window. Do the Rangers have enough to end the Sabres’ run here? Or is Buffalo’s skill and attack too much for yet another New York team?

Why Buffalo should win the series:

This will sound familiar and will probably be repeated as long as Buffalo stays alive this spring, but Buffalo should win simply because they’re the better team - President’s Trophy, most goals-scored, etc. etc. But what may differentiate the Sabres now from two weeks ago is a renewed sense of commitment; the series against the Islanders was supposed to be an easy warm-up for further rounds. They will now begin the Rangers’ series without any assumptions as to how the series will progress – look for a more consistent effort from the talented forward lines - in particular, snipers Jason Pominville and Maxim Afinogenov began to find their games late in the Islanders’ series. An unsung team defensively, Buffalo’s top pairing of Henrik Tallinder and Toni Lydman will likely match up against the Rangers’ potent top line (featuring Jaromir Jagr). Buffalo’s true blueline stars against the Islanders were Brian Campbell and Jaroslav Spacek, who were only on the ice for one even-strength goal against for the entire series (and that only in the fifth game). When all else fails (and it rarely does), Ryan Miller has proven himself capable of rescuing the team from poor play in their own end (evidenced by his miraculous end-of-game save in game five on Miroslav Satan).

Why Buffalo should be afraid:

Yes, their opening series only went five games and there were periods of complete domination by Buffalo but the domination was never for as long as they’d have liked, as the Islanders ended up keeping each game quite close. The Sabres were never able to use their relentless offense to stick a dagger in the Islanders once they got a lead, and the team needs to build on that experience to help them in the next series. Unfortunately, if they play with mixed intensity in this series…they will have far greater offensive talent to deal with from the Rangers. Buffalo needs to pay close attention to the Rangers’ forecheck and job number one needs to be getting the puck out of the defensive zone as easily as possible without resorting to trying for the big play. Furthermore, if they let the Rangers’ other lines generate offense and spark (Matt Cullen and Martin Straka only combined for one goal against Atlanta) it could put undue pressure on Buffalo’s defensive play as a whole, and detract from their greatest skill – moving the puck up ice and generating a scoring attack. If the Rangers can effectively cycle and forecheck in the offensive zone while beating them up in challenges for the puck, the Sabres can be thrown off their game.

Why New York should win the series:

First and foremost, if Henrik Lundqvist doesn’t play like he has over the past three months, the Rangers will exit this round quickly. There’s no reason to think that he won’t, though, as he has been arguably the best goalie in the league since January. Jagr is a known commodity, and if possible I think he’s actually underrated. There are still residual feelings from his rather listless time with the Washington Capitals but since coming to New York he has renewed his first-ballot Hall of Fame credentials (and got jobbed out of the Hart Trophy last season). He is still in every way a superstar and with open-ice will destroy even the best of defenses. The more-surprising revelation has been linemate Michael Nylander, who did everything against Atlanta: scoring eight points and notching a +7 in just four games. The 14-year NHL veteran had career highs in goals, assists, and points this season and has been a perfect compliment at center for Jagr. If this line can dominate games and even just create constant pressure in the Buffalo zone and draw penalties, the Rangers have a chance to take this series.

Why New York should be afraid:

While few, if any, teams have the depth that the Buffalo Sabres have, the Rangers have a real danger of being exposed as thin in this series – they will be overly reliant on relatively few players. One, their top line must produce both in points and offensive pressure. If they are shut down, it’s over. Two, Lundqvist must be sharp for 60 minutes each night. A Tim McCarver-like master-of-the-obvious statement to be sure, but even when the Rangers have a lead he must stay focused as Buffalo had more comebacks from being down two-or-more goals than any team in the league this year. Three, they need to play disciplined hockey. Much has been made over the acquisition and play of agitator Sean Avery this season, and he has already gone on record that he’s been psyching himself up over the Sabres (read: looking to play dirty and get under their skin; channeling as much of Ken Linseman as possible). Truth be told, if Avery doesn’t play a smart game and the Sabres don’t let his antics get to them, he should be a non-factor for New York. The Rangers will have to play at their peak level to be able to shut down Daniel Briere/Jason Pominville/Jochen Hecht and Derek Roy/Thomas Vanek/Maxim Afinogenov…but the so-called “other” lines for Buffalo are as dangerous as most teams’ top two.

Random useless but fun playoff facts:

These cross-state rivals have only met in the playoffs once in the 19 seasons they have both qualified for the playoffs since 1973. In 1978 they met in the old best-of-three preliminary round, where the superior Sabres prevailed two games to one. New York’s defeat of Atlanta was their first playoff win since 1997 when Wayne Gretzky helped the club to the Conference Finals. Buffalo has won nine series in that span and currently stand at 114-118 in their often-checkered playoff history.

My pick:

The Rangers have won 17 of their last 24 games, counting the playoffs, helping to render the Sabres' season sweep meaningless. Often times in a playoff series the end outcome is influenced more by role-players and otherwise unheralded heroes. Can the Rangers bring a quality second and third line attack? Will the Sabres succumb to the likely physical play they will be exposed to? Is Lundqvist capable of stealing two games in Buffalo? Questions we will find the answer to in a week or so…but based on what we’ve seen thus far, it’s hard to pick against the Buffalo Sabres. Their depth and skill are too much for the Rangers to handle, and although I see the Rangers giving the Sabres as much trouble as the Islanders did – and their higher skill level perhaps winning them an extra game – the Sabres should get through this series to make a return trip to the Eastern Conference finals. Buffalo in 6.

round 2 schedule

I'll have detailed series previews up later today - here are the schedules:

2007 EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

Series "I" Time (ET) #1 Buffalo vs. #6 NY Rangers Network
Wednesday, April 25 7:00 p.m. NY Rangers at Buffalo VERSUS
Friday, April 27 7:00 p.m. NY Rangers at Buffalo VERSUS
Sunday, April 29 2:00 p.m. Buffalo at NY Rangers NBC
Tuesday, May 1 7:00 p.m. Buffalo at NY Rangers VERSUS
* Friday, May 4 7:00 p.m. NY Rangers at Buffalo VERSUS
* Sunday, May 6 2:00 p.m. Buffalo at NY Rangers NBC
* Tuesday, May 8 7:00 p.m. NY Rangers at Buffalo VERSUS


Series "J" Time (ET) #2 New Jersey vs. #4 Ottawa Network
Thursday, April 26 7:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey
Saturday, April 28 8:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey VERSUS
Monday, April 30 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
Wednesday, May 2 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
* Saturday, May 5 8:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey VERSUS
* Monday, May 7 7:00 p.m. New Jersey at Ottawa VERSUS
* Wednesday, May 9 7:00 p.m. Ottawa at New Jersey

2007 WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

Series "K" Time (ET) #1 Detroit vs. #5 San Jose Network
Thursday, April 26 7:30 p.m. San Jose at Detroit VERSUS
Saturday, April 28 3:00 p.m. San Jose at Detroit NBC
Monday, April 30 9/10:00 p.m. Detroit at San Jose VERSUS
Wednesday, May 2 9/10:00 p.m. Detroit at San Jose VERSUS
* Saturday, May 5 2:00 p.m. San Jose at Detroit NBC
* Monday, May 7 TBD Detroit at San Jose VERSUS
* Wednesday, May 9 TBD San Jose at Detroit VERSUS

Series "L" Time (ET) #2 Anaheim vs. #3 Vancouver Network
Wednesday, April 25 10:00 p.m. Vancouver at Anaheim VERSUS
Friday, April 27 10:00 p.m. Vancouver at Anaheim VERSUS
Sunday, April 29 8:00 p.m. Anaheim at Vancouver VERSUS
Tuesday, May 1 10:00 p.m. Anaheim Vancouver VERSUS
* Thursday, May 3 9:00 p.m. Vancouver at Anaheim VERSUS
* Sunday, May 6 TBD Anaheim at Vancouver VERSUS
* Tuesday, May 8 TBD Vancouver at Anaheim VERSUS

* if necessary

==============
my picks:

Buffalo in 6
Ottawa in 5
San Jose in 6
Anaheim in 4

Wales Watching - 2006 Eastern playoffs - round 2 preview

We’re down to eight teams, as round two – the Conference semi-finals – begin tonight, and before taking a look forward we should look back at the first round to see what happened. I previewed the Eastern Conference in Wales Watching two weeks ago and from my point of view things turned out as expected….


Buffalo – Philadelphia. Sabres win in 6. My pick - Buffalo in 6.

I had this one right on but in truth, the Sabres could easily have swept this series. The Sabres took an early lead in every game – they dominated the games they won but games three and four in Philadelphia they let slip away. Common reporting had Peter Forsberg taking over those games but in truth game four was the only one in which he brought his best game – he was largely ineffective for the rest of the series. The fleet Sabres followed the predicted script and thoroughly embarrassed the plodding Flyers; Robert Esche is taking some blame due to a barrage of goals but truth told, he was Philadelphia’s best player in many of the games – he had no chance on most of the goals, as the Sabres’ swarmed on him with countless odd man rushes. Philadelphia – once again – needs to rethink how they construct a team. And oh by the way, late word is that Forsberg might need surgery that will keep him from starting next season on time.

Ottawa - Tampa Bay. Senators win in 5. My pick - Ottawa in 4.

It was domination by the Senators, and their one loss was in my eyes more a case of them letting up their pressure in the Lightning zone. Martin Havlat was the star, scoring goals in every game en route to a 10 point opening round. 14 different Senators scored in the five games and Ray Emery rarely faltered as the East’s top team made short work of the defending champs. By the way: nice job by coach John Tortorella throwing soon-to-be-ex-Lightning goalie John Grahame under the bus.

Carolina – Montreal. Hurricanes win in 6. My pick - Carolina in 6

Two big stories in this one: Cam Ward and Saku Koivu. After two rough games the shaky Martin Gerber sat the rest of the way, giving the young Ward a chance to shine, which he did, helping the Canes win the final four games. The series may also have turned on the stick of Justin Williams; to be more precise, when Williams inadvertantly jammed his stick into Montreal captain Saku Koivu's eye during the second period of game three, ending his season. Consider this: Montreal won the first two games, scoring 12 goals in the process. After Koivu left, the Habs scored just five goals over the next 13 periods.

New Jersey - New York Rangers. Devils win in 4. My pick - New Jersey in 5

While some risky (and perhaps illegal substance-ridden) prognosticators were taking the Rangers in seven games, most figured this one to be an easy one for the scorching Devils – winners of 11 straight coming in. Make it 15 now – we pegged Jaromir Jagr and Henrik Lundqvist as the keys for any chance of the Rangers winning. As you now know, Jagr left game one with an arm injury and either didn’t play again or was ineffective. Lundqvist was benched after a bad game one, perhaps a panic decision by coach Tom Renney, but it may not have mattered. The Devils’ big guns took care of business, led by Patrick Elias and his 11 points. Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta both contributed six points while Jamie Langenbrunner was huge with eight points. The Rangers’ lack of depth destroyed them.

I’ll just consider myself lucky that my Western predictions weren’t published...and without further ado, let’s look ahead to the second round:

=================================================
Ottawa Senators (1) vs. Buffalo Sabres (4)

This should be a highly entertaining affair – to me, the two best teams remaining in the playoffs. We should see two teams with similar mentalities: run and gun. Both teams will feature multiple lines swarming through all three zones, reminding me of a quote a friend of mine once said: "forecheck, backcheck: paycheck" – this definitely applies to both Ottawa and Buffalo. After Ottawa embarrassed the Sabres in Buffalo in November by the score of 10-4, the Sabres rattled off more wins than anyone in the league. Having said that, I think it's imperative that the Sabres take at least one of the first two games to reassert to themselves that they belong in this series.

The series will suffer from an odd schedule, thanks to hockey legend Dora the Explorer who will be starring in Ottawa this weekend, forcing game two to Monday night. Oddly enough, a concert in Buffalo next Friday will force back-to-back games next Wednesday and Thursday which should remind fans of the old divisional battles in the 80s – I’m looking forward to this one.

WHY BUFFALO SHOULD WIN - Despite being the underdog (although only finishing three points behind the Senators) Buffalo can win this series. They need to avoid the defensive mistakes that hurt them against Philadelphia in games three and four, where they succumbed to the temptation of chasing the puck carrier and getting themselves out of position – they need to continue their offensive game plan by relentlessly forechecking, which they executed to frightening perfection by the end of the series (Mike Grier's goal in game six was a result of linemates Chris Drury and Derek Roy forcing the Flyer defensemen to cough up the puck).

WHY BUFFALO SHOULD BE AFRAID - Early in the season the Sabres were completely psyched out by Ottawa - the low point being the aforementioned 10-4 pasting on home ice. Ottawa won the first five matchups between the two teams - and handily - until Buffalo took the final three, one each in regulation, overtime, and shootout. The memory of those games still remains with the Sabres as every time they face the Senators the local press can’t stop mentioning them.

WHY OTTAWA SHOULD WIN - Simply, this is the best team in the NHL. With superstars like Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, and Martin Havlat and a top four defence unrivaled by any other team (Wade Redden, Zdeno Chara, Chris Philips, Andrej Meszaros) that alone would be enough. But the players that fill in the rest of the lines are nearly all valuable players – Peter Schaefer, Mike Fisher, and Patrick Eaves are strong two-way players who can score if needed. The team has no weaknesses.

WHY OTTAWA SHOULD BE AFRAID - This Sabres team is not the same as the one the Senators torched early in the season. Buffalo now knows they are a good team, rather than hoping they were one earlier in the year. Plus, Ottawa is supposed to win the East this year – all the pressure remains on them. This could prove to be Ottawa’s nightmare matchup – they are superior to Buffalo, but perhaps only in that they’ve proven to be the better team for a longer time. If there’s any team that Ottawa would have wanted to avoid at this point, it would be the Sabres – nearly a mirror-image squad to theirs.

RANDOM USELESS BUT FUN PLAYOFF FACTS - The Sabres have won both previous playoff matchups vs. Ottawa – a 1997 seven game affair that ended on a Derek Plante overtime goal, and a 1999 sweep by Buffalo – one that marked the beginning of Ottawa’s souring on Alexei Yashin.

OUR PICK - While the Senators fans will be jazzed, there will be a sense of nervousness behind them. The Buffalo fans on the other hand will be wild - the trials (literally) and tribulations of the past five years that have led up to this breakout season have re-energized Western New York and the Niagara Peninsula and they feel that they have nothing to lose at this point. Home ice could be a factor in this series - I can see the Sabres taking two of the three at home but can they win two in Ottawa? They can…but I don't think they will. I've said it all year - Ottawa is the most talented and dangerous team in the league and barring injury they can only beat themselves. This remains their Cup for the taking. Ottawa in 7.

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Carolina Hurricanes (2) vs. New Jersey Devils (3)

Finally, we have a test for the Devils. No disrespect meant to the Rangers but they put up nothing against New Jersey, who hasn’t lost since – get this – March 26th. Carolina finally found themselves after the first 2 games in which Martin Gerber had a rough go and was replaced by Cam Ward. Ward is their guy now, clearly, as he was the victor in four tight wins against the Habs including two overtime games. New Jersey looks to continue their amazing run against the surprise team of the year.

WHY CAROLINA SHOULD WIN - Carolina had a great offensive attack this year, with ten players scoring at least 44 points. Regular season team scoring leader Eric Staal ended up leading the team with eight points in the first round and Rod Brind’Amour continues to counter the aging process while being one of the very best all around forwards in the league – averaging an amazing 26 minutes over the six games against Montreal. Cam Ward immediately settled down a sketchy goaltending issue and the team gelled in front of him – combine stability in goal with a solid defensive squad and this is a complete team.

WHY CAROLINA SHOULD BE AFRAID - The Hurricanes didn’t score a ton against Montreal – their highest output in one game was five, and they lost that one. They bring one of the most diverse offenses in the league, and while I’d ordinarily expect their scoring to improve, Martin Brodeur isn’t the goalie you want to face to break a scoring slump. If the Carolina forwards can’t find the net, they won’t find much help from a defense that doesn’t press much.

WHY NEW JERSEY SHOULD WIN - Once again we can write “this is the hottest team in the league,” not having lost in six weeks. Their offense has not been held to less than three goals since March 21^st, a stretch of 18 games. And while their top forwards can play with anyone, they got quality offence from the blueline from Brian Rafalski and Paul Martin against Montreal. Martin Brodeur recovered from a rough start to the season to work himself into the final three Vezina nominees. The Devils are more well-rounded than they have been in years.

WHY NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE AFRAID - Defence. Carolina’s offence is not like the Rangers’ – they will bring numerous talented forwards and the Devils’ defensive corps can be unspectacular – this isn’t the same intimidating two-way defence of the Scott Stevens and Scott Niedermayer days. They need to play smart positional hockey in their own zone, and this means their forwards need to think in all three zones.

RANDOM USELESS BUT FUN PLAYOFF FACTS - The New Jersey franchise’s first playoff appearance came in 1978 as the Colorado Rockies, losing to the Flyers in two games. They wouldn’t qualify for the playoffs again for ten years, when they were the Devils. Carolina’s franchise was born in the World Hockey Association in 1972 as the New England Whalers. They won the championship – the Avco Cup – in their first year.

OUR PICK - The easy pick would be to stick with the team that never loses anymore. The clever and trendy pick would be to go with the young upstart team with the rookie goalie. While Carolina has had a better season than anyone could have imagined, the Devils aren’t merely hot – they’ve been the best team in the league over the past few months consistently. With two lines of Gionta, Gomez, Zach Parise and Elias between Sergei Brylin and Langenbrunner, and the calming influence of the unspectacular but steady Brodeur, it looks from here like the Devils will move on. New Jersey in 6.

2006 Eastern Conference playoffs - round 1 preview

Wales Watching - SportsBlurb.com

EASTERN CONFERENCE ROUND 1 PREVIEW

After a nearly two year wait, we once again are about to witness the best sports tournament of the year – the NHL playoffs. Like most fans, I’m expecting this playoff season to be fantastic; having been starved for it after last year’s lockout killed the season. With so many quality teams in the playoffs (ten reached the 100 point mark), nearly every team can make a claim on having a chance at hoisting the most famous $50 gift in sports - Lord Stanley's Cup.

So many questions will be answered over the next two months: will the Cup return to Canada for the first time since 1993? Can the defending champs from Tampa Bay shake off a mediocre season and regain their form of 2004? Can Ottawa finally shake off recent playoff nightmares (especially now that their nemesis – Toronto – didn’t even qualify this year) and advance to the finals? Is New Jersey really as good as they’ve played over the past two months?

We’ll take a quick glance at each Eastern series below and try to answer some of these questions – of course predictions are mostly pure folly, since so many bizarre and unpredictable events happen over the course of a seven-game series, but we’ll give our best take on who you can expect to win in the first round – read on…

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OTTAWA (1) vs. TAMPA BAY (8)

This is an intriguing 1-8 matchup - pitting a regular season force and popular favourite to at least reach the finals against the defending champions. On paper you could make the case for this being a close one…but it won’t be:

Why Ottawa should win the series: Simply, Ottawa is the most talented team in the league. When you can roll out Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza on your first line, Martin Havlat on your second, and Daniel Alfredsson on your third, you've got offensive depth. This is not to slight the other talented forwards on the Senators - those are merely the superstars. There are no fillers up front: Chris Kelly, Mike Fisher, Peter Schaefer, Patrick Eaves, Brian Smolinski... Did we forget the defence? With Zdeno Chara, Chris Phillips, Wade Redden, and super-rookie Andrej Meszaros nobody can better this top four. If they remain healthy, there’s no reason this team doesn’t win the East and finally advance to the finals.

Why Ottawa should be afraid: The only question mark I see at this point is potentially Ray Emery. Dominik Hasek and his Magic Groin at this point aren't expected to make an appearance in the first round at all. Emery has had a good season, but has had at least two bad stretches of play, the latest was virtually through the entire month of April.

Why Tampa Bay should win the series: Hey, these are the defending champs, aren't they? Vincent LeCavalier led the team with 35 goals, new addition Vaclav Prospal scored 80 points, and when your second line consists of Brad Richards, Martin St. Louis, and Fredrick Modin, you have talent. They return most of their core that won it all two years ago, and a return to form could in theory spell disaster for the Senators.

Why Tampa Bay should be afraid: Lots of reasons - goaltending, for one. John Grahame? Sean Burke? Who is the answer? Grahame probably gives you higher highs but much lower lows. Also this team hasn’t been consistent all year; after a season-high five game win streak after Thanksgiving they promptly lost seven of their next nine. The aforementioned St. Louis hasn't been the same player he was last season when he took away the Hart trophy. Past success, be it individual or team, looks nice but has no bearing on present play - St. Louis needs to reestablish himself as one of the league's best players, and a big series against the conference's best would go a long way to doing just that.

Random useless but fun playoff facts: This is the first playoff meeting between the two 1992 expansion teams. The first incarnation of the Ottawa Senators won four Stanley Cups, their last in 1927, defeating the so-called “original six” member Boston Bruins (it was the Bruins’ third NHL season). Tampa Bay had only played in three playoff series before winning four in a row to win the Cup in 2004.

Our pick: Ottawa took all four meetings against the Bolts this year, outscoring them 16-6. The Lightning never got on track this year and needed up until the final weekend to clinch a playoff spot. This year's new boss will most definitely not be the same as the old boss - Ottawa in four.


CAROLINA (2) vs. MONTREAL (7)

I move for Carolina to bring back the colours of the Whalers - the Montreal Canadiens patented the cool red jerseys, they alone should be allowed to wear them in this series...

Why Carolina should win the series: They are a complete team. With balanced scoring (eight players with at least 44 points) and an up-tempo attack, they will work to put constant pressure on the Canadiens defence. Eric Staal emerged as a star, netting 45 goals and 100 points and being a force nearly every night. Rod Brind’Amour has always been one of the league’s most underrated stars – he has no flaws in his game at either end, and is one of the best faceoff men in the game. Ray Whitney, Cory Stillman, Doug Weight, and Justin Williams help to round out a tough-to-defend offence. Their defence is unspectacular yet steady and full of playoff experience led by veterans Glen Wesley, Bret Hedican, and Oleg Tverdovsky.

Why Carolina should be afraid: Recent goaltending issues should have them concerned. Martin Gerber has been good this year, and at times great...but of late, not so much – seven straight games with three or more goals allowed. He’s their number one but in a short series if he slips we could see Cam Ward. The Hurricanes as a whole have not played well over the past six weeks, winning nine of their final 21 games.

Why Montreal should win the series: Goaltending and power play. The highly unlikely emergence of Cristobal Huet was the reason the team surged in the second half and brought them to this point. He has slipped a bit in recent games and there is even discussion of David Aebischer taking over in net, but if Huet regains his March form he could easily frustrate the Hurricane attack and give the Canadiens enough confidence to win the series. Alexei Kovalev and Saku Koivu are their big names on offence and the keys to their top two lines, which also include Michael Ryder and impressive rookie Chris Higgins. Their power play was fifth overall in the NHL while Carolina was only 18^th in penalty killing. Gaining the man-advantage will be crucial to Montreal’s success.

Why Montreal should be afraid: As great as Huet was this year, he’s unproven (as is every other Eastern goaltender starting round one, save Martin Brodeur) and has slumped recently. The Habs are a team that will occasionally wilt under pressure. Tuesday's home loss against the Devils was a stunner for them, even if it didn't mean anything in terms of their standings. One game shouldn't mean much in terms of predicting a team's future, but the manner in which they lost was troubling, especially giving up a crucial three-on-one with just over two minutes left, leading to the winning goal.

Random useless but fun playoff fact: Before 2002’s improbable run to the finals, the Carolina/Hartford franchise had only won one series in 10 appearances – their one victory in 1986 led them to a heartbreaking second-round loss to the eventual Cup winners - the Montreal Canadiens – on a game 7 overtime winner by rookie Claude Lemieux.


Our pick: Carolina has had a fantastic season, and although they've slipped of late their top-notch play all year earned them a spot against one of the East's lesser playoff opponents. Unless the Canadiens can get quick leads and stymie the Carolina offence, this goes to the ‘Canes. Carolina in 6.

NEW JERSEY (3) vs. NY RANGERS (6)

Here is a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions even though they ended up merely one point apart at the end of the year. At least jet lag won't be an issue in this series…

Why New Jersey should win the series: They have been in another dimension over the past three weeks, winning 11 games in a row, including Tuesday night's incredible third period comeback over the Canadiens to clinch the Atlantic Division and the 3rd seed in the East. They also have Martin Brodeur – one of the sport’s all-time greats – peaking at the right time. Their top line is on fire - Patrick Elias, Scott Gomez, and Brian Gionta - who not only proved he belonged in the league, he set a team record in goals with 48 - good for sixth in the NHL.

Why New Jersey should be afraid: The defence is their biggest weakness, and fortunately Brodeur has covered up many of their mistakes. The offence is over-reliant on their top line and must get solid production out of others up front, such as Jamie Langenbrunner, John Madden, and Sergei Brylin. Rookie Zach Parise could emerge as a hero in the series.

Why New York should win the series: The best player on either team is Jaromir Jagr, who has gone through a rebirth this season which will almost certainly guarantee him at least a top three finish in the Hart balloting. For the first time in years he is using his size along with his speed and playing aggressive two-way hockey - he's a terror every shift he's out there. Rookie sensation "King" Henrik Lundqvist is back from being sidelined for seven games, and although he suffered a rough loss on Tuesday night, he's been a spectacular force for the Rangers all year. If they are to win this series, they cannot do it without top performances from these two players.

Why New York should be afraid: Virtually the same reason - the Rangers aren't very deep offensively and rely far too much on the brilliance of Jagr to win – aside from his 54 goals, only three other Rangers (rookie Petr Prucha – 30, Michael Nylander – 23, Martin Straka - 22) had more than 16 goals. Also keep an eye on Lundqvist – if he’s not healthy, it’s all over - witness their recent slump with Kevin Weekes in goal.

Random useless but fun playoff facts: In three previous playoff meetings the Rangers have come away victorious each time – once in each round of the playoffs – the most memorable being the 1994 seven game double-overtime crusher…. “MATTEAU! MATTEAU! MATTEAU!”


Our pick: The Rangers have had a great year but bottomed out at a bad time; not only losing the division but having to face the league's hottest team with the only healthy veteran goalie in the conference. Even though the season series was tied at four, I'm thinking it's impossible not to think the Devils have an easy time in this series: New Jersey in 5.


BUFFALO (4) vs. PHILADELPHIA (5)

It speaks volumes of the parity of the NHL this season when we have a first round matchup between two clubs who - based on their regular seasons - will treat anything less than at least a Conference Final appearance a complete disappointment…

Why Buffalo should win the series: This is the NHL's most offensively-balanced team. All year commentators have speculated on how the Sabres could possibly have succeeded without having a scorer in the top 50, 75, etc. Would you rather have two or three top players leading a bunch of question marks, or have eleven 40 point scorers, giving opponents nobody to key on? Daniel Briere is as talented a player as there is in the league at forward, one who would likely have been around 100 points had he stayed healthy all season. The Briere-J.P. Dumont combination is deadly and if rock-solid center Jochen Hecht returns, they form a potent top line. Maxim Afinogenov has been breathtaking over the past month, pairing up with center Tim Connolly to form a dazzling stickhandling line. Co-captain Chris Drury already has his name on the Cup and is known for his clutch play – he led the team with 30 goals. Jay McKee is one of the league's top defensive defenseman and the team anchor, leading the league in blocked shots.

Why Buffalo should be afraid: Ryan Miller is a big playoff unknown. He’s had an outstanding rookie season, and after a late slump seems to have found his game, but what happens if the Flyers take a quick big lead in game 1 – how will he react? The Sabres had a great season but went through two or three slumps where their defensive play looked more like a high school gym class floor hockey game - not clearing the puck, terrible positioning, lack of physical play. It's not their norm, but it remains a possibility and if it happens at the worst possible time it could kill them.

Why Philadelphia should win the series: Their top line: Peter Forsberg, Simon Gagne, and Mike Knuble. Presuming they are healthy, the Sabres will have to contend with the size, speed, and skill of this line that can play with anyone. Forsberg is always in the discussion of best player on earth, and Gagne’s speed and deadly shot will have to be minimized by Buffalo if they are going to win. The Flyers have done a good job over the season developing young forwards such as former junior superstar rivals Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, and R.J. Umberger who also emerged with a 20 goal season.

Why Philadelphia should be afraid: Goaltending: Robert Esche has been named the game 1 starter but he will be on a short leash – don’t be surprised to see Antero Niittymaki before this series is up – interesting how many times over the past decade that goaltending has been a question mark for Philadelphia. Lack of defensive speed: the Flyers will simply not be able to keep up with Buffalo's small and quick forwards. Their defence must play steady positional hockey and not over-commit or they'll get burnt and likely take penalties, something they do not want to do against the league's third-best power play.

Random useless but fun playoff facts: This will be the eighth playoff matchup between these old rivals, with the Flyers winning five including their first meeting in the 1975 Stanley Cup finals. Game 3 of that series was one of the most famous in history – “The Fog Game” - with Sabres’ forward Jim Lorentz swatting a bat out of mid-air in the old Aud in Buffalo, and Rene Robert scoring the overtime winner through a thick fog on Bernie Parent.


Our pick: The Flyers were about five minutes away from winning the division and facing the Rangers in round one until the Devils came back against Montreal on Tuesday. The Rangers would have been a much better matchup for them. Obviously someone has to lose this series and it's a shame they have to meet in the first round - this could easily have been a quality conference final. Sadly for the Flyers, it's not. Buffalo’s speed and talent give them the series in 6 games.

Wales Watching - eve of playoffs

Wales Watching

Is the return of Pucky the Whale imminent? Will Brass Bonanza be once again ringing in the ears of Connecticut hockey fans? As the regular season winds down this week, what has been a long one for the Pittsburgh Penguins may have gotten even worse for the fans. Last week reports surfaced of a Massachusetts businessman wanting to buy the ailing Pittsburgh Penguins franchise and possibly move it to Hartford, Connecticut - Lawrence Gottesdiener is a developer who owns a good deal of land in Hartford and has stated that he would like to buy the Penguins and if he couldn’t keep them in Pittsburgh (doubtless tied to a new arena), he would love to move them to Hartford and build a new arena there on his land. Last night he and the mayor of Hartford even planned on attending the Blackhawks-Wild game in Minnesota to begin serious investigation of a franchise shift.

I seem to recall that when the Hartford Whalers moved south to become the Carolina Hurricanes the general feeling was that Hartford as a city could no longer support a big-league franchise – it was merely a symbol of an older time and a relic from the old World Hockey Association. Critics pointed to attendance plummeting over the final years of the franchise but to be fair, the organization was poorly run and the team rarely showed on-ice promise over much of their NHL history, only recording one playoff series victory in 18 seasons. They had a small but vocal fanbase that was slowly alienated by a series of unpopular and awful trades and a lack of vision that saw the team become bad but never quite bad enough to build from the bottom with franchise players – the notable exception being Chris Pronger whom they prematurely traded to St. Louis for the unhappy Brendan Shanahan, who was in turn dealt after one season.

The fact is that there are a few reasons why Hartford could make sense again –the Whalers do still have a vocal booster presence, the consistent success and popularity of the University of Connecticut’s basketball programs demonstrates a rabid area sports interest, and potentially the most important fact: Connecticut is the wealthiest state in the country in terms of per-capita income. These talks have Penguins fans panicking – this is a club that has gone through some bad times on the ice but with rookie Sidney Crosby about to be joined by Evgeni Malkin next year, and a host of young and talented players in their system, it is a club that should be ready to make a move up the standings within two or three years – the coming months could reveal if that move will also coincide with a move out of town.

Moving on to the games, and the playoff race – the teams are still jostling for position but it appears that the top eight teams are secure. Carolina and Ottawa are still battling for first in the East - the Buffalo Sabres are likely to comfortably settle for the number four seed behind the Atlantic division winners, either the New York Rangers or Philadelphia Flyers. Currently the hottest team in the East is the New Jersey Devils, winners of eight straight after defeating the Hurricanes last night in overtime. They’ve closed to within two points of the fifth place Flyers, yet are still only just four points ahead of another scorching team, the Montreal Canadiens, led by the still-unconscious Cristobal Huet in net. Pulling up the rear is the defending champ Tampa Bay Lightning, who would need a complete collapse to allow Atlanta to catch them. Of the teams on the outside looking in, I still like the Florida Panthers most of all. I’ve mentioned in a few columns that I can see the Panthers making a strong showing next year – provided they convince Roberto Luongo to stick around.

Being that this is the last regular season Wales Watching article for this year, and a time where many fans are thinking about end-of-year individual awards, I thought I’d throw down my personal awards on a team-by-team basis – focusing on the eight playoff teams this week – I’ll offer a team MVP, a team disappointment (if there are any), and either the most surprising or unsung player.

Carolina Hurricanes

MVP – Eric Staal – Leading the team in scoring and in the league’s top five for most of the season, the young Staal took the leap to stardom this year in leading this most surprising of success stories this NHL season.

Disappointment – anything here would be nitpicking - none.

Pleasant surprise – Martin Gerber – Gerber has become a rock in goal for the Canes and turned a big question mark into an exclamation point.

Ottawa Senators

MVP – Daniel Alfredsson. I could pick any of four or five players but to me when healthy Alfredsson is the best player in the game.

Disappointment – few, but the health of Dominik Hasek has been a constant worry.

Pleasant surprises – Ray Emery however, has taken over in goal and has mostly done an excellent job. Andrej Meszaros has enjoyed a fantastic rookie season on defence.

New York Rangers

MVP – Jaromir Jagr. Enough has been written about his resurgence, and all of it is true. Will likely win the Hart Trophy as league MVP.

Disappointment – scoring depth. no player really qualifies here, but their reliance on the top scorers Jagr, Michael Nylander, and Martin Straka could spell trouble.

Pleasant surprise – easy: Henrik Lundqvist in goal. In other years he’d win the Calder and Vezina – he’s been that good.

Buffalo Sabres

MVP – tie: Jochen Hecht and Daniel Briere. Hecht is the glue that makes the Sabres strong in all zones (they lost six straight immediately after losing Hecht to injury). Briere has put up superstar numbers since returning from a sports hernia.

Disappointment – Dmitri Kalinin. The big defenseman has the coaching staff’s confidence but I think they’ll have to cut their losses soon on this former first round pick.

Pleasant surprise – Tim Connolly. One of two acquired (Taylor Pyatt being the other) in the much-ridiculed-in-Buffalo Mike Peca deal. Everything changes this year - nobody would take Peca straight-up over Connolly now – Connolly’s stickhandling and speed fit perfectly into the Sabres’ system.

Philadelphia Flyers

MVP – Simon Gagne – Injuries kept him from having an even bigger season, but his 44 goals in 67 games easily lead the team.

Disappointment – Peter Forsberg and his groin injury. Typically fantastic when healthy, his missing nearly a quarter of the season arguably cost them a top three seed.

Pleasant surprise – Mike Knuble – set a career high in goals with 33 to date.

New Jersey Devils

MVP – Brian Gionta. The former college superstar has become everyone’s favourite little big man, with a career season and 45 goals to date.

Disappointment – Alexander Mogilny. Remember him? Currently on the Devils’ payroll…in the minor leagues.

Pleasant surprise – Gionta. Everyone knew he had talent, but nobody thought he could battle and become one of the league’s premier wingers.

Montreal Canadiens

MVP – Holy Mackinaw, is there even a question here? Cristobal Huet.

Disappointment – lack of Jose Theodore’s return to MVP status. Although this ended up being the best thing to happen to the team due to Huet’s emergence.

Pleasant surprise – Huet. OK – Huet only has 34 games played to date and I’m not advocating him winning it, but he should get serious Vezina respect (I’d put him third behind Mikka Kiprusoff and Lundqvist). Hey, John Tucker won the OHL’s MVP in 1984 after playing only 39 games. Yeah, I referenced John Tucker.

Tampa Bay Lightning

MVP – Brad Richards – setting a career high in points and leading the team through a rough title-defence year. Plays nearly 23 minutes per game.

Disappointment – plenty: Martin St. Louis – did he really win the Hart trophy last season??? The abrupt end to the classy Dave Andreychuk’s career. John Grahame not stepping up into the top goalie role. Making the playoffs despite these issues is proof at how talented this squad is.

Unsung player – Fredrick Modin is one of the most unheralded 30 goal scorers in the league and leads all Lightning forwards in +/-.