2006 playoffs - round 3 preview

We’ve arrived at the Conference Finals – the NHL’s final four. It may not seem like hockey season with all the rain we’ve had up in Massachusetts over the past three weeks (I heard someone say that if it were snow we’d have had something nearing 20 feet - I could only think “cool.”), but this promises to be fantastic, even though there is something less-than-inspiring watching a playoff game at 2pm on a warm Saturday. Not that it will stop me…

I’d like to make a few points about a common theme I’ve been hearing over the past week. I’ve been reading a lot of snide comments about how this year’s final four must be making Gary Bettman squirm: four relatively unknown and smaller-market teams will kill the ratings. This ticks me off for a few reasons – first, we all know the US television ratings will be tractor-pull-esque regardless of who plays (how great were the ratings in October 2000 when baseball had both teams from The City That Never Sleeps play each other in the Subway Series? It was the lowest-rated Series in history to that date). Not to mention the last time I checked a map, Anaheim was basically, you know, Los Angeles. And come on - Raleigh, North Carolina is known for shutting down the city during the Cup finals every year*. (*this may not actually be “true.” Sorry Canes fans - it’s hard not to poke fun at a franchise that has a policy preventing opposing fans from buying their playoff tickets.)

Second - and most importantly to me – why would anyone (outside of the CEO of the OLN/Versus/Wango Tango raw meat eating Network) actually care? I see a lot of blatant hypocrisy in the fact that for years so many writers have complained about the style of the NHL, harkening back to the “glory days” of the 1980s’ “firewagon” hockey. Finally this year the league made huge strides in letting the skilled players play which resulted in the most exciting hockey we’ve seen in at least a decade, culminating in this final four where only the most skilled teams remain. Do these writers even remember who some of the most exciting teams were in the 80s? Edmonton. Calgary. New York….Islanders. Quebec. Montreal. In other words – mostly Canadian teams. As for the big-market squads (a term I’m not sure I’d ever heard until the mid-90s), Don Maloney and John Ogrodnick weren’t exactly leading the New York Rangers and Detroit Red Wings respectively to ultimate glory in the 80s. I’d like to think that not a lot of fans look back at the NHL of five-ten years ago with a lot of fondness when New Jersey and Detroit were winning championships in what was mostly a boring league. You can’t have it both ways.

This final four is great for the NHL if you care about the product, as I do and I suspect all true fans of the game do. Frank Deford once wrote a great essay about the NHL, comparing it to RC Cola. I know – please bear with me. He said that the NHL (like RC Cola) is a wonderful product and should be content – and proud – to be unique, while not striving to sell itself out to compete with the “big boys” (MLB, NFL, NBA…and to continue the analogy: Coke, Pepsi) and being something that it is not. Celebrate your differences, accept that you can’t “compete” with the other leagues, and embrace what makes your sport great.

The league basically killed itself for an entire season to implement (among other things) a salary cap – the cap was supposed to make all of this possible, to even the playing field a little bit. “Bettman’s worst nightmare?” Doubtful. I’ve never been a Bettman supporter but I will defend him here – three years ago he didn’t have to go to bat for the Ottawa and Buffalo franchises, which had both suffered embarrassing bankruptcies. He didn’t have to push for last year’s lockout, which would likely have resulted in more teams going broke or at least relocating to “bigger” markets. This year’s conference finalists are a direct result of all the positive changes the league bled itself to undergo. In the end, if you’re not a fan of this year’s final four, you’re not a fan of NHL hockey.

Before looking at the two conference finals, let’s take a quick look back at the quarterfinals – my predictions were a mirror image of the first round. In round one I had been perfect in the East and perfectly wrong in the West – just the opposite this time around:

Buffalo beats Ottawa in 5 (I picked Ottawa in 7).

This year was supposed to be the year Ottawa finally broke through to the finals…I’m quite sure they didn’t expect to get dumped in five games in the second round. To Buffalo. But this was less an Ottawa choke (despite the angst amongst Senators’ fans) and more a coming-out party for the season-long underrated Buffalo Sabres. Despite this being one of the tightest 4-1 series in memory (with three games going to overtime, all won by Buffalo), there were other underlying factors for the Sabres’ victory: while the Sens outshot Buffalo in all four Sabre wins, their quality of shots was low. The Buffalo defence was nearly flawless over the last four games and as a result the team is even better than it was two weeks ago.

Carolina beats New Jersey in 5 (I picked New Jersey in 6).

Another oops. I clearly didn’t respect Carolina enough and thought the Devils would continue their unearthly streak. Martin Brodeur finally came back to earth while Cam Ward continued his clutch play. The Canes gave notice in a game one blowout, winning 6-0 and generally skating circles around the baffled Devils. Now it’s the Hurricanes on a big streak, winning eight of their last nine games heading into the Eastern finals.

Anaheim beats Colorado in 4 (I picked Anaheim in 6)

…and it wasn’t really that close. The Avalanche didn’t score their first goal of the series until game three, in which they were beaten by four Joffrey Lupul goals, and were outscored 16-4 in the series. The speedier Ducks dominated this series in every way, and rookie Ilya Bryzgalov set a rookie playoff record for consecutive shutout minutes – the Avalanche really aren’t that great of a team anymore and appeared to run out of gas after a somewhat shocking upset of Dallas in round one.

Edmonton beats San Jose in 6 (I picked Edmonton in 7)

There were two big physical events in this series: the game two Raffi Torres hit on Milan Michalek and the game three dental work of Ryan Smyth. Even though the Sharks won the second game, the (borderline-legal) Torres hit showed the Sharks that they were about to be run down physically. In game three, Smyth took a puck in the grille, losing a few teeth, then returned to deliver the assist on the winning goal in the third overtime. They wouldn’t lose again. The Oilers were simply relentless and ended up being too much for the Sharks – at those times where the defence failed them, Dwayne Roloson picked up the Oilers nearly every time.

Without further ado, let’s look at the semi-finals:

Eastern finals: Carolina (2) vs. Buffalo (4)

This will be the first postseason matchup between the Sabres and Hurricanes/Whalers franchise; sort of surprising considering they were in the same division for 17 years. As has been written ad nauseum this week, nobody predicted both of these teams making the playoffs, let alone facing off in the Conference Finals but neither team is here on a fluky postseason run. Nearly mirror images of each other, the teams feature multiple scoring lines, blazing speed, underrated solid defence and rookie goaltenders. There is so little separating the teams that this one is more likely to be decided on some unforeseen circumstance.

Why Carolina Should Win – After a breakout regular season, Eric Staal continues to actually play better in the playoffs; with 15 points he’s second overall in playoff scoring (soon to pass Patrick Elias). In only giving up ten goals in five games to the red-hot Devils last round the team has proven that not only can they match any opponent in scoring, they can shut down opposing offences just as well. In the clinching game against New Jersey they weathered a first period where their penalty killing units were perfect in withstanding four penalties, keeping momentum on their side. Their power play has been deadly, scoring at nearly a 28% clip through two rounds – tops in the league.

Why Carolina Should Be Afraid – Buffalo is a new beast – how will Carolina try to match up with a team nearly identical to theirs? Buffalo may not have the experience and the names but they have even more depth than Carolina up front – Canes coach Peter Laviolette will be on the spot at home, trying to figure out which line to match super center Rod Brind’Amour against.

Why Buffalo Should Win – We keep saying it, but the Sabres have the deepest team in the league. But no longer are they the “no-name” Sabres: Daniel Briere, JP Dumont, Chris Drury – this is a great offence, and oddly so in the postseason: one of the concerns for the Sabres heading into the playoffs was that much of their scoring during the year was based on their powerplay. Their powerplay has actually been pretty bad this postseason, yet their even-strength play has been phenomenal – scoring twice as many goals at 5-on-5 than their opposition.

Why Buffalo Should Be Afraid – Tim Connolly was Buffalo’s best player until being knocked into Hull, Quebec (and perhaps next fall) in game two by Ottawa’s Peter Schaefer. He hasn’t played since and there has been complete silence regarding his return. I don’t expect to see him again this year. Dmitri Kalinin was finally justifying the team’s faith in him as a top defenseman when in the same game he suffered a broken ankle. The team shuffled their lines and displayed – once again – the great depth in the organization by having Jiri Novotny and Rory Fitzpatrick fill in admirably but how long can a team win against elite opponents without two of their top players?

Random Useless But Fun Playoff Facts – Coach Lindy Ruff – actually maligned in some quarters before this season – has brought the Sabres to the Conference finals three times in his eight years, and now sports the fourth-highest all time playoff winning percentage for coaches (at least 40 wins) at .615 (40-25). The only thing the other coaches have that he doesn’t is a Stanley Cup.

Our Pick – This is hard to pick, this series could go either way, both teams are exciting, blahblahblah. Here’s where I’m calling the difference in these squads: after the wild game one in Ottawa (a 7-6 overtime Buffalo win) the vaunted Ottawa forwards didn’t score one even-strength goal for the rest of the series. Credit the Buffalo Sabres’ unheralded defence – led by Henrik Tallinder, Toni Lydman and Jay McKee (who continued to block shots at an impressive rate) – for the key difference in that series. Their confidence is high, and they’ve played remarkably mistake-free and smart positional hockey. You know the Sabres will score – their only question mark was preventing scoring. With their defence and Ryan Miller, the Sabres will make their third trip to the Stanley Cup finals, this time trying to finally bring the Cup home. Buffalo in 6.

Western finals: Anaheim (6) vs. Edmonton (8)

Those seed numbers make this one look like two teams on fluke runs but here’s why that’s inaccurate: often times so-called “Cinderella teams” make it through a few rounds based on the play of one or two players playing out of their minds. While a number of players on both squads are clearly playing their best hockey of the year, if not their careers, these teams are legitimately solid in all three zones. In the Oilers’ case, fans had been squawking all year that if they just settled their goaltending situation they’d be as good as anyone in the West – that certainly can’t be disproved now with Dwayne Roloson playing great hockey. The Ducks are simply continuing the run they’ve been on for months, only now with steady rookie Bryzgalov in net.

Why Anaheim Should Win – Their even-strength play has been devastating, and through eleven games they’re averaging over 31 shots per game. Teemu Selanne and Joffrey Lupul have led the offensive charge up front, scoring 12 goals between them. Can we once-again revisit the Sergei Fedorov trade (which I praised in this space last fall)? Admittedly I called that one addition by subtraction but the actual gains for Anaheim have been immeasurable: Todd Marchant has been fantastic, scoring eight points but more importantly playing his usual top-notch two-way play and sporting a nifty +10; and I’m not sure the Ducks realized how valuable defenceman Francois Beauchemin would be - he’s added seven points this postseason. Norris trophy finalist Scott Niedermayer has been brilliant as usual in carrying the puck out of danger. Bryzgalov has been positively stingy since taking over for J.S.Giguere in the Calgary series, and the team is giving up less than two goals per game.

Why Anaheim Should Be Afraid – They matched up well against the offensively-challenged Flames and the less-talented Avalanche. Edmonton presents a combined challenge – a team with a curious blend of young offensive flash and classic stereotypical Canadian grit. The Oilers will hit them harder than they’ve been used to, and that punishment could end up intimidating many of the young forwards. They need to continue to battle towards the net and take the punishment they will receive if they want to win this series.

Why Edmonton Should Win – If I were a forward playing against this team I might come down with an updated case of the Philadelphia flu – Chris Pronger, Jason Smith, Steve Staios. Ouch. These three provide a brutal and talented physical presence for Edmonton – in the case of Pronger he brings an outstanding offensive awareness (evidenced by his point-per-game pace this postseason) and more leadership on a team with captain Smith, Michael Peca, and “Captain Canada” Ryan Smyth. Up front Peca is playing his best hockey of the year, and Shawn Horcoff has taken over as a reliable top center, leading the team with 14 points. Edmonton got better with each game against San Jose and gave up only 12 goals in the six games to the Sharks – never fully allowing the dangerous Jonathan Cheechoo/Joe Thornton combination to dominate.

Why Edmonton Should Be Afraid – They are peaking right now, at the right time. But with such an aggressive and physical style of play, the risk is there that they will tire themselves out. In addition, they chartered out of Edmonton immediately following Wednesday’s conclusion of the Sharks’ series, giving them little time to rest up for the quicker Anaheim club. Edmonton needs to pick their spots and not be over-aggressive – their penalty killing has been great and although Anaheim hasn’t shown much to date with their power play, they have the talent and speed to tire out Edmonton. Stay out of the box. Also try not to look over at the Anaheim bench – assistant coach Dave Farrish kind of looks like he might be the devil.

Random Useless But Fun Playoff Facts – overall, the NHL’s California franchises haven’t had much playoff success. The Oakland/California Seals were 0-2 in playoff series over their nine years. The LA Kings have made the finals once in 38 seasons, and only eight other times have made the second round. In the Ducks’ 11 previous seasons they made the playoffs only three times, making one dramatic run to the finals in 2003. Edmonton has a few large meaningful colourful banners hanging in the Northlands rafters.

Our Pick – While Anaheim has the edge in youth, I see Edmonton making this a “throwback” series – using the body, getting chippy and nasty, and using the Ducks’ youth to their own advantage, although this might be a case where the longer the series goes the more dangerous it is for the Oilers as they could wear down. Right now there’s no more difficult place to play than the (formerly-named but more classic) Northlands Coliseum in Edmonton. The Ducks must win their first two at home or risk getting buried in Edmonton. In the end I think the Ducks aren’t quite ready to match up to Edmonton, and the Oilers make their first trip back to the finals since Peter Klima’s 1990 squad. Edmonton in 5.

Campbell Corner - 2006 playoffs - round 2 preview

Eight teams qualified for the Western Conference playoffs…and the top four seeds all lost. Simply amazing. The NHL playoffs are notoriously pretty wide-open but in the West this year it is truly up-for-grabs. Virtually every one of the four remaining teams can make a case for winning this conference, and before we look at the two series, let’s take a quick look back:

Edmonton beats Detroit in six. The third period of game six was the best period of hockey in the playoffs, with the Oilers mounting a great comeback to clinch the series at home. Not many people saw this result coming, being that the Red Wings had an incredible 124 points and the Oilers squeaked into the eight spot with 95 points. But when you look deeper, it wasn’t nearly the upset that it seemed. While much has been made of the Wings beating up on a weak division, they still managed a fantastic record against the rest of the league. The Oilers are the team that deserved more credit – they played in an extremely difficult division, with the likes of Calgary, Colorado, and Vancouver. Even the last place Minnesota Wild won 38 games. Edmonton was a chic preseason pick to be one of the better teams, having made high profile acquisitions Michael Peca and Chris Pronger. The Oilers’ speedy and talented forwards made the difference in this series and give hope to the City of Champions that they could bring the Cup back for the first time since 1990.

Colorado beats Dallas in five. Another result very few people predicted – actually I thought this less likely than the Oilers upsetting the Wings, but a dominant game one and three overtime victories later and the Stars were wondering where it went wrong. Marty Turco is facing the dreaded label of being a poor playoff goalie, right or wrong. While history is rarely a factor in deciding a series, perhaps we shouldn’t have discounted the franchise’s playoff experience, having played in a league high 25 playoff series’ since relocating from Quebec. Veterans Joe Sakic, Andrew Brunette, and Milan Hejduk led the way but Ontario Hockey League MVP Wojtek Wolski (Brampton Battalion) was an unexpected surprise. Let’s not forget formerly forgotten ex-MVP Jose Theodore in net, who improved throughout the series and excelled in the game five overtime clincher.

San Jose beats Nashville in five. Frankly, I expected more out of Nashville. After winning the first game at home, they tanked the last four, scoring only six goals the rest of the way. San Jose rapidly became a media favourite in the last few weeks, with their impressive push into the playoffs and Joe Thornton’s inspiring play down the stretch. The Sharks proved to be more than just Jumbo Joe and Jonathan Cheechoo, as the man selected right after Thornton in the 1997 draft – Patrick Marleau – dominated with seven goals. Nashville’s team system broke down and they couldn’t manage much of an offence. Goalie Chris Mason was decent in goal, better than expected, but didn’t steal any games.

Anaheim beats Calgary in seven. The Ducks have been one of the best teams in the league since New Year’s Day, and figured to give Calgary a real battle. Calgary was many people’s preseason pick to win the West, but their Achilles heel all year was lack of scoring and that killed them in this all-too-short playoff run. The Ducks on the other hand have become an exciting team, and Teemu Selanne led the team in scoring and added grit. Scott Niedermayer is underappreciated and was fantastic – no slight to Niklas Lidstrom whatsoever, but if he and Niedermayer switched teams I say there’d be no question as to who would win the Norris (not Lidstrom). Credit to coach (and former Norris trophy winner) Randy Carlyle for inserting rookie goaltender Ilja Bryzgalov into the lineup for the final two games (which he won).

Now a quick look at the two second round series:

San Jose Sharks (5) vs. Edmonton Oilers (8)

Big market hockey fans might not know much about this series beyond Joe Thornton and the big Oilers upset, but this should be as exciting and anticipated as the Eastern matchup of Ottawa vs. Buffalo. Two highly skilled teams that can skate and put the puck in the net. Don’t forget about Edmonton and their “Best Ice Surface in the NHL”_TM and this should be a highly entertaining set of games.

WHY SAN JOSE WILL WIN – Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo up front. Patrick Marleau on the second line. A young emerging scoring defence led by Tom Preissing and Christian Ehrhoff. The Sharks were torrid in April, winning eight in a row before losing their final game to finish with 99 points. They were the “team nobody wants to play” in the West, and Nashville drew the short straw. If the Sharks can dictate the pace and force the Oilers to play in their own zone they can make a short series of this.

WHY SAN JOSE SHOULD BE AFRAID – Edmonton plays a much more uptempo style than the Predators did. Edmonton is flying high with confidence and proved against Detroit that they can play any style of game – defensive, offensive, physical. San Jose’s defense is a big question mark – will they be able to contain the Oilers when they’re flying all over the offensive zone? They may not have the experience, size, or talent to match up against Edmonton’s forwards.

WHY EDMONTON WILL WIN – It’s hard to believe that any team is more confident than the Oilers. Chris Pronger was superhuman in the Detroit series – he averaged over 33 minutes per game, scored seven points, and took only two penalties while still maintaining his trademark physical presence on the blueline. Oiler captain Jason Smith is not going to contribute much offensively but his strong physical defensive presence is crucial to their success. “There was something in the air that night…Fernando…” Edmonton native Fernando Pisani may have written his name in Edmonton lore by scoring two big goals in game six. Ales Hemsky scored a pair and combined with rent-a-winger Sergei Samsonov on the beautiful and dramatic game winner. “Captain Canada” Ryan Smyth, Jarret Stoll, Shawn Horcoff, Raffi Torres…they’re not as consistent as a team like Buffalo but at their peak they can bring nearly the same depth of talent up front.

WHY EDMONTON SHOULD BE AFRAID – Inconsistency. One reason the Oilers had an up-and-down season was due to inconsistency – if their forwards aren’t forechecking, their defence will wear down. Jaroslav Spacek for one must dramatically improve his play if they are going to neutralize the Sharks’ talented offence.

OUR PICK – Call it a hunch if you will, but I think the Oilers can continue to put their game together and play an even better series than they did against the Wings. Chris Pronger is the most important player in this series, and I think he will be the single biggest reason that Thornton and company end their seasons. Edmonton in six.

Anaheim Mighty Ducks (6) vs. Colorado Avalanche (7)

Another very unlikely matchup - the Avalanche clearly were the bigger upset victor from round one – the Avs entered the playoffs as their lowest seed since they were playing at Le Colisee as the Quebec Nordiques (still the best uniforms ever – bring back the Nords please, Mr. Bettman). To generalize, can the group of young Ducks beat the veteran Avalanche?

WHY ANAHEIM WILL WIN – Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermayer are superstars. Niedermayer to me is the best player in this series and will be playing nearly 30 minutes per night and dictating the pace of the game – playing a strong defence and bringing the puck out of his zone constantly.

WHY ANAHEIM SHOULD BE AFRAID – Aside from Selanne, their forwards are young. Really young. Last year would you have known Andy McDonald, Chris Kunitz, Corey Perry, or Ryan Getzlaf? The team is counting on all of them to contribute in a big way. They all need to take on some leadership roles and not fear physical play. Veteran Rob Blake will be waiting for them, and although he’s not the player he once was, you can likely count on him to be a reliable presence for Colorado. The name Jose Theodore could intimidate the youngsters if they have trouble scoring and fall behind. Joffrey Lupul needs to step up his game after only scoring one goal in the opening round.

WHY COLORADO WILL WIN – Joe Sakic is still capable of playing at an elite level. And with Milan Hejduk, Alex Tanguay, Brunette, and Wolski they can make life miserable for the Ducks. A

WHY COLORADO SHOULD BE AFRAID – is Jose Theodore for real? If it’s just a matter of confidence he may be able to use game five against Dallas as a catalyst, but if he reverts to his mediocrity of the recent past the Avs will be in trouble fast. I’m also not convinced that their defence will be able to match Anaheim’s skill set up front. This is an important series for John-Michael Liles to assert himself defensively.

OUR PICK – While the Avalanche scored an impressive upset over the Dallas Stars, Anaheim is no fluke. They’ve been playing at a high level for months and beating a hardscrabble team like the Calgary Flames – and dominating them in Calgary in game seven – shows a team that is poised to advance. Anaheim in five.

Wales Watching - 2006 Eastern playoffs - round 2 preview

We’re down to eight teams, as round two – the Conference semi-finals – begin tonight, and before taking a look forward we should look back at the first round to see what happened. I previewed the Eastern Conference in Wales Watching two weeks ago and from my point of view things turned out as expected….


Buffalo – Philadelphia. Sabres win in 6. My pick - Buffalo in 6.

I had this one right on but in truth, the Sabres could easily have swept this series. The Sabres took an early lead in every game – they dominated the games they won but games three and four in Philadelphia they let slip away. Common reporting had Peter Forsberg taking over those games but in truth game four was the only one in which he brought his best game – he was largely ineffective for the rest of the series. The fleet Sabres followed the predicted script and thoroughly embarrassed the plodding Flyers; Robert Esche is taking some blame due to a barrage of goals but truth told, he was Philadelphia’s best player in many of the games – he had no chance on most of the goals, as the Sabres’ swarmed on him with countless odd man rushes. Philadelphia – once again – needs to rethink how they construct a team. And oh by the way, late word is that Forsberg might need surgery that will keep him from starting next season on time.

Ottawa - Tampa Bay. Senators win in 5. My pick - Ottawa in 4.

It was domination by the Senators, and their one loss was in my eyes more a case of them letting up their pressure in the Lightning zone. Martin Havlat was the star, scoring goals in every game en route to a 10 point opening round. 14 different Senators scored in the five games and Ray Emery rarely faltered as the East’s top team made short work of the defending champs. By the way: nice job by coach John Tortorella throwing soon-to-be-ex-Lightning goalie John Grahame under the bus.

Carolina – Montreal. Hurricanes win in 6. My pick - Carolina in 6

Two big stories in this one: Cam Ward and Saku Koivu. After two rough games the shaky Martin Gerber sat the rest of the way, giving the young Ward a chance to shine, which he did, helping the Canes win the final four games. The series may also have turned on the stick of Justin Williams; to be more precise, when Williams inadvertantly jammed his stick into Montreal captain Saku Koivu's eye during the second period of game three, ending his season. Consider this: Montreal won the first two games, scoring 12 goals in the process. After Koivu left, the Habs scored just five goals over the next 13 periods.

New Jersey - New York Rangers. Devils win in 4. My pick - New Jersey in 5

While some risky (and perhaps illegal substance-ridden) prognosticators were taking the Rangers in seven games, most figured this one to be an easy one for the scorching Devils – winners of 11 straight coming in. Make it 15 now – we pegged Jaromir Jagr and Henrik Lundqvist as the keys for any chance of the Rangers winning. As you now know, Jagr left game one with an arm injury and either didn’t play again or was ineffective. Lundqvist was benched after a bad game one, perhaps a panic decision by coach Tom Renney, but it may not have mattered. The Devils’ big guns took care of business, led by Patrick Elias and his 11 points. Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta both contributed six points while Jamie Langenbrunner was huge with eight points. The Rangers’ lack of depth destroyed them.

I’ll just consider myself lucky that my Western predictions weren’t published...and without further ado, let’s look ahead to the second round:

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Ottawa Senators (1) vs. Buffalo Sabres (4)

This should be a highly entertaining affair – to me, the two best teams remaining in the playoffs. We should see two teams with similar mentalities: run and gun. Both teams will feature multiple lines swarming through all three zones, reminding me of a quote a friend of mine once said: "forecheck, backcheck: paycheck" – this definitely applies to both Ottawa and Buffalo. After Ottawa embarrassed the Sabres in Buffalo in November by the score of 10-4, the Sabres rattled off more wins than anyone in the league. Having said that, I think it's imperative that the Sabres take at least one of the first two games to reassert to themselves that they belong in this series.

The series will suffer from an odd schedule, thanks to hockey legend Dora the Explorer who will be starring in Ottawa this weekend, forcing game two to Monday night. Oddly enough, a concert in Buffalo next Friday will force back-to-back games next Wednesday and Thursday which should remind fans of the old divisional battles in the 80s – I’m looking forward to this one.

WHY BUFFALO SHOULD WIN - Despite being the underdog (although only finishing three points behind the Senators) Buffalo can win this series. They need to avoid the defensive mistakes that hurt them against Philadelphia in games three and four, where they succumbed to the temptation of chasing the puck carrier and getting themselves out of position – they need to continue their offensive game plan by relentlessly forechecking, which they executed to frightening perfection by the end of the series (Mike Grier's goal in game six was a result of linemates Chris Drury and Derek Roy forcing the Flyer defensemen to cough up the puck).

WHY BUFFALO SHOULD BE AFRAID - Early in the season the Sabres were completely psyched out by Ottawa - the low point being the aforementioned 10-4 pasting on home ice. Ottawa won the first five matchups between the two teams - and handily - until Buffalo took the final three, one each in regulation, overtime, and shootout. The memory of those games still remains with the Sabres as every time they face the Senators the local press can’t stop mentioning them.

WHY OTTAWA SHOULD WIN - Simply, this is the best team in the NHL. With superstars like Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, and Martin Havlat and a top four defence unrivaled by any other team (Wade Redden, Zdeno Chara, Chris Philips, Andrej Meszaros) that alone would be enough. But the players that fill in the rest of the lines are nearly all valuable players – Peter Schaefer, Mike Fisher, and Patrick Eaves are strong two-way players who can score if needed. The team has no weaknesses.

WHY OTTAWA SHOULD BE AFRAID - This Sabres team is not the same as the one the Senators torched early in the season. Buffalo now knows they are a good team, rather than hoping they were one earlier in the year. Plus, Ottawa is supposed to win the East this year – all the pressure remains on them. This could prove to be Ottawa’s nightmare matchup – they are superior to Buffalo, but perhaps only in that they’ve proven to be the better team for a longer time. If there’s any team that Ottawa would have wanted to avoid at this point, it would be the Sabres – nearly a mirror-image squad to theirs.

RANDOM USELESS BUT FUN PLAYOFF FACTS - The Sabres have won both previous playoff matchups vs. Ottawa – a 1997 seven game affair that ended on a Derek Plante overtime goal, and a 1999 sweep by Buffalo – one that marked the beginning of Ottawa’s souring on Alexei Yashin.

OUR PICK - While the Senators fans will be jazzed, there will be a sense of nervousness behind them. The Buffalo fans on the other hand will be wild - the trials (literally) and tribulations of the past five years that have led up to this breakout season have re-energized Western New York and the Niagara Peninsula and they feel that they have nothing to lose at this point. Home ice could be a factor in this series - I can see the Sabres taking two of the three at home but can they win two in Ottawa? They can…but I don't think they will. I've said it all year - Ottawa is the most talented and dangerous team in the league and barring injury they can only beat themselves. This remains their Cup for the taking. Ottawa in 7.

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Carolina Hurricanes (2) vs. New Jersey Devils (3)

Finally, we have a test for the Devils. No disrespect meant to the Rangers but they put up nothing against New Jersey, who hasn’t lost since – get this – March 26th. Carolina finally found themselves after the first 2 games in which Martin Gerber had a rough go and was replaced by Cam Ward. Ward is their guy now, clearly, as he was the victor in four tight wins against the Habs including two overtime games. New Jersey looks to continue their amazing run against the surprise team of the year.

WHY CAROLINA SHOULD WIN - Carolina had a great offensive attack this year, with ten players scoring at least 44 points. Regular season team scoring leader Eric Staal ended up leading the team with eight points in the first round and Rod Brind’Amour continues to counter the aging process while being one of the very best all around forwards in the league – averaging an amazing 26 minutes over the six games against Montreal. Cam Ward immediately settled down a sketchy goaltending issue and the team gelled in front of him – combine stability in goal with a solid defensive squad and this is a complete team.

WHY CAROLINA SHOULD BE AFRAID - The Hurricanes didn’t score a ton against Montreal – their highest output in one game was five, and they lost that one. They bring one of the most diverse offenses in the league, and while I’d ordinarily expect their scoring to improve, Martin Brodeur isn’t the goalie you want to face to break a scoring slump. If the Carolina forwards can’t find the net, they won’t find much help from a defense that doesn’t press much.

WHY NEW JERSEY SHOULD WIN - Once again we can write “this is the hottest team in the league,” not having lost in six weeks. Their offense has not been held to less than three goals since March 21^st, a stretch of 18 games. And while their top forwards can play with anyone, they got quality offence from the blueline from Brian Rafalski and Paul Martin against Montreal. Martin Brodeur recovered from a rough start to the season to work himself into the final three Vezina nominees. The Devils are more well-rounded than they have been in years.

WHY NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE AFRAID - Defence. Carolina’s offence is not like the Rangers’ – they will bring numerous talented forwards and the Devils’ defensive corps can be unspectacular – this isn’t the same intimidating two-way defence of the Scott Stevens and Scott Niedermayer days. They need to play smart positional hockey in their own zone, and this means their forwards need to think in all three zones.

RANDOM USELESS BUT FUN PLAYOFF FACTS - The New Jersey franchise’s first playoff appearance came in 1978 as the Colorado Rockies, losing to the Flyers in two games. They wouldn’t qualify for the playoffs again for ten years, when they were the Devils. Carolina’s franchise was born in the World Hockey Association in 1972 as the New England Whalers. They won the championship – the Avco Cup – in their first year.

OUR PICK - The easy pick would be to stick with the team that never loses anymore. The clever and trendy pick would be to go with the young upstart team with the rookie goalie. While Carolina has had a better season than anyone could have imagined, the Devils aren’t merely hot – they’ve been the best team in the league over the past few months consistently. With two lines of Gionta, Gomez, Zach Parise and Elias between Sergei Brylin and Langenbrunner, and the calming influence of the unspectacular but steady Brodeur, it looks from here like the Devils will move on. New Jersey in 6.

2006 Eastern Conference playoffs - round 1 preview

Wales Watching - SportsBlurb.com

EASTERN CONFERENCE ROUND 1 PREVIEW

After a nearly two year wait, we once again are about to witness the best sports tournament of the year – the NHL playoffs. Like most fans, I’m expecting this playoff season to be fantastic; having been starved for it after last year’s lockout killed the season. With so many quality teams in the playoffs (ten reached the 100 point mark), nearly every team can make a claim on having a chance at hoisting the most famous $50 gift in sports - Lord Stanley's Cup.

So many questions will be answered over the next two months: will the Cup return to Canada for the first time since 1993? Can the defending champs from Tampa Bay shake off a mediocre season and regain their form of 2004? Can Ottawa finally shake off recent playoff nightmares (especially now that their nemesis – Toronto – didn’t even qualify this year) and advance to the finals? Is New Jersey really as good as they’ve played over the past two months?

We’ll take a quick glance at each Eastern series below and try to answer some of these questions – of course predictions are mostly pure folly, since so many bizarre and unpredictable events happen over the course of a seven-game series, but we’ll give our best take on who you can expect to win in the first round – read on…

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OTTAWA (1) vs. TAMPA BAY (8)

This is an intriguing 1-8 matchup - pitting a regular season force and popular favourite to at least reach the finals against the defending champions. On paper you could make the case for this being a close one…but it won’t be:

Why Ottawa should win the series: Simply, Ottawa is the most talented team in the league. When you can roll out Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza on your first line, Martin Havlat on your second, and Daniel Alfredsson on your third, you've got offensive depth. This is not to slight the other talented forwards on the Senators - those are merely the superstars. There are no fillers up front: Chris Kelly, Mike Fisher, Peter Schaefer, Patrick Eaves, Brian Smolinski... Did we forget the defence? With Zdeno Chara, Chris Phillips, Wade Redden, and super-rookie Andrej Meszaros nobody can better this top four. If they remain healthy, there’s no reason this team doesn’t win the East and finally advance to the finals.

Why Ottawa should be afraid: The only question mark I see at this point is potentially Ray Emery. Dominik Hasek and his Magic Groin at this point aren't expected to make an appearance in the first round at all. Emery has had a good season, but has had at least two bad stretches of play, the latest was virtually through the entire month of April.

Why Tampa Bay should win the series: Hey, these are the defending champs, aren't they? Vincent LeCavalier led the team with 35 goals, new addition Vaclav Prospal scored 80 points, and when your second line consists of Brad Richards, Martin St. Louis, and Fredrick Modin, you have talent. They return most of their core that won it all two years ago, and a return to form could in theory spell disaster for the Senators.

Why Tampa Bay should be afraid: Lots of reasons - goaltending, for one. John Grahame? Sean Burke? Who is the answer? Grahame probably gives you higher highs but much lower lows. Also this team hasn’t been consistent all year; after a season-high five game win streak after Thanksgiving they promptly lost seven of their next nine. The aforementioned St. Louis hasn't been the same player he was last season when he took away the Hart trophy. Past success, be it individual or team, looks nice but has no bearing on present play - St. Louis needs to reestablish himself as one of the league's best players, and a big series against the conference's best would go a long way to doing just that.

Random useless but fun playoff facts: This is the first playoff meeting between the two 1992 expansion teams. The first incarnation of the Ottawa Senators won four Stanley Cups, their last in 1927, defeating the so-called “original six” member Boston Bruins (it was the Bruins’ third NHL season). Tampa Bay had only played in three playoff series before winning four in a row to win the Cup in 2004.

Our pick: Ottawa took all four meetings against the Bolts this year, outscoring them 16-6. The Lightning never got on track this year and needed up until the final weekend to clinch a playoff spot. This year's new boss will most definitely not be the same as the old boss - Ottawa in four.


CAROLINA (2) vs. MONTREAL (7)

I move for Carolina to bring back the colours of the Whalers - the Montreal Canadiens patented the cool red jerseys, they alone should be allowed to wear them in this series...

Why Carolina should win the series: They are a complete team. With balanced scoring (eight players with at least 44 points) and an up-tempo attack, they will work to put constant pressure on the Canadiens defence. Eric Staal emerged as a star, netting 45 goals and 100 points and being a force nearly every night. Rod Brind’Amour has always been one of the league’s most underrated stars – he has no flaws in his game at either end, and is one of the best faceoff men in the game. Ray Whitney, Cory Stillman, Doug Weight, and Justin Williams help to round out a tough-to-defend offence. Their defence is unspectacular yet steady and full of playoff experience led by veterans Glen Wesley, Bret Hedican, and Oleg Tverdovsky.

Why Carolina should be afraid: Recent goaltending issues should have them concerned. Martin Gerber has been good this year, and at times great...but of late, not so much – seven straight games with three or more goals allowed. He’s their number one but in a short series if he slips we could see Cam Ward. The Hurricanes as a whole have not played well over the past six weeks, winning nine of their final 21 games.

Why Montreal should win the series: Goaltending and power play. The highly unlikely emergence of Cristobal Huet was the reason the team surged in the second half and brought them to this point. He has slipped a bit in recent games and there is even discussion of David Aebischer taking over in net, but if Huet regains his March form he could easily frustrate the Hurricane attack and give the Canadiens enough confidence to win the series. Alexei Kovalev and Saku Koivu are their big names on offence and the keys to their top two lines, which also include Michael Ryder and impressive rookie Chris Higgins. Their power play was fifth overall in the NHL while Carolina was only 18^th in penalty killing. Gaining the man-advantage will be crucial to Montreal’s success.

Why Montreal should be afraid: As great as Huet was this year, he’s unproven (as is every other Eastern goaltender starting round one, save Martin Brodeur) and has slumped recently. The Habs are a team that will occasionally wilt under pressure. Tuesday's home loss against the Devils was a stunner for them, even if it didn't mean anything in terms of their standings. One game shouldn't mean much in terms of predicting a team's future, but the manner in which they lost was troubling, especially giving up a crucial three-on-one with just over two minutes left, leading to the winning goal.

Random useless but fun playoff fact: Before 2002’s improbable run to the finals, the Carolina/Hartford franchise had only won one series in 10 appearances – their one victory in 1986 led them to a heartbreaking second-round loss to the eventual Cup winners - the Montreal Canadiens – on a game 7 overtime winner by rookie Claude Lemieux.


Our pick: Carolina has had a fantastic season, and although they've slipped of late their top-notch play all year earned them a spot against one of the East's lesser playoff opponents. Unless the Canadiens can get quick leads and stymie the Carolina offence, this goes to the ‘Canes. Carolina in 6.

NEW JERSEY (3) vs. NY RANGERS (6)

Here is a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions even though they ended up merely one point apart at the end of the year. At least jet lag won't be an issue in this series…

Why New Jersey should win the series: They have been in another dimension over the past three weeks, winning 11 games in a row, including Tuesday night's incredible third period comeback over the Canadiens to clinch the Atlantic Division and the 3rd seed in the East. They also have Martin Brodeur – one of the sport’s all-time greats – peaking at the right time. Their top line is on fire - Patrick Elias, Scott Gomez, and Brian Gionta - who not only proved he belonged in the league, he set a team record in goals with 48 - good for sixth in the NHL.

Why New Jersey should be afraid: The defence is their biggest weakness, and fortunately Brodeur has covered up many of their mistakes. The offence is over-reliant on their top line and must get solid production out of others up front, such as Jamie Langenbrunner, John Madden, and Sergei Brylin. Rookie Zach Parise could emerge as a hero in the series.

Why New York should win the series: The best player on either team is Jaromir Jagr, who has gone through a rebirth this season which will almost certainly guarantee him at least a top three finish in the Hart balloting. For the first time in years he is using his size along with his speed and playing aggressive two-way hockey - he's a terror every shift he's out there. Rookie sensation "King" Henrik Lundqvist is back from being sidelined for seven games, and although he suffered a rough loss on Tuesday night, he's been a spectacular force for the Rangers all year. If they are to win this series, they cannot do it without top performances from these two players.

Why New York should be afraid: Virtually the same reason - the Rangers aren't very deep offensively and rely far too much on the brilliance of Jagr to win – aside from his 54 goals, only three other Rangers (rookie Petr Prucha – 30, Michael Nylander – 23, Martin Straka - 22) had more than 16 goals. Also keep an eye on Lundqvist – if he’s not healthy, it’s all over - witness their recent slump with Kevin Weekes in goal.

Random useless but fun playoff facts: In three previous playoff meetings the Rangers have come away victorious each time – once in each round of the playoffs – the most memorable being the 1994 seven game double-overtime crusher…. “MATTEAU! MATTEAU! MATTEAU!”


Our pick: The Rangers have had a great year but bottomed out at a bad time; not only losing the division but having to face the league's hottest team with the only healthy veteran goalie in the conference. Even though the season series was tied at four, I'm thinking it's impossible not to think the Devils have an easy time in this series: New Jersey in 5.


BUFFALO (4) vs. PHILADELPHIA (5)

It speaks volumes of the parity of the NHL this season when we have a first round matchup between two clubs who - based on their regular seasons - will treat anything less than at least a Conference Final appearance a complete disappointment…

Why Buffalo should win the series: This is the NHL's most offensively-balanced team. All year commentators have speculated on how the Sabres could possibly have succeeded without having a scorer in the top 50, 75, etc. Would you rather have two or three top players leading a bunch of question marks, or have eleven 40 point scorers, giving opponents nobody to key on? Daniel Briere is as talented a player as there is in the league at forward, one who would likely have been around 100 points had he stayed healthy all season. The Briere-J.P. Dumont combination is deadly and if rock-solid center Jochen Hecht returns, they form a potent top line. Maxim Afinogenov has been breathtaking over the past month, pairing up with center Tim Connolly to form a dazzling stickhandling line. Co-captain Chris Drury already has his name on the Cup and is known for his clutch play – he led the team with 30 goals. Jay McKee is one of the league's top defensive defenseman and the team anchor, leading the league in blocked shots.

Why Buffalo should be afraid: Ryan Miller is a big playoff unknown. He’s had an outstanding rookie season, and after a late slump seems to have found his game, but what happens if the Flyers take a quick big lead in game 1 – how will he react? The Sabres had a great season but went through two or three slumps where their defensive play looked more like a high school gym class floor hockey game - not clearing the puck, terrible positioning, lack of physical play. It's not their norm, but it remains a possibility and if it happens at the worst possible time it could kill them.

Why Philadelphia should win the series: Their top line: Peter Forsberg, Simon Gagne, and Mike Knuble. Presuming they are healthy, the Sabres will have to contend with the size, speed, and skill of this line that can play with anyone. Forsberg is always in the discussion of best player on earth, and Gagne’s speed and deadly shot will have to be minimized by Buffalo if they are going to win. The Flyers have done a good job over the season developing young forwards such as former junior superstar rivals Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, and R.J. Umberger who also emerged with a 20 goal season.

Why Philadelphia should be afraid: Goaltending: Robert Esche has been named the game 1 starter but he will be on a short leash – don’t be surprised to see Antero Niittymaki before this series is up – interesting how many times over the past decade that goaltending has been a question mark for Philadelphia. Lack of defensive speed: the Flyers will simply not be able to keep up with Buffalo's small and quick forwards. Their defence must play steady positional hockey and not over-commit or they'll get burnt and likely take penalties, something they do not want to do against the league's third-best power play.

Random useless but fun playoff facts: This will be the eighth playoff matchup between these old rivals, with the Flyers winning five including their first meeting in the 1975 Stanley Cup finals. Game 3 of that series was one of the most famous in history – “The Fog Game” - with Sabres’ forward Jim Lorentz swatting a bat out of mid-air in the old Aud in Buffalo, and Rene Robert scoring the overtime winner through a thick fog on Bernie Parent.


Our pick: The Flyers were about five minutes away from winning the division and facing the Rangers in round one until the Devils came back against Montreal on Tuesday. The Rangers would have been a much better matchup for them. Obviously someone has to lose this series and it's a shame they have to meet in the first round - this could easily have been a quality conference final. Sadly for the Flyers, it's not. Buffalo’s speed and talent give them the series in 6 games.

NCAA: Carle, Bill Thomas, Potulny, Greene

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

04/13/06

Varsity! Varsity!
U-rah-rah! Wisconsin,
Praise to thee we sing!
Praise to thee, our Alma Mater,
U-rah-rah! Wisconsin!

With the University of Wisconsin’s 2-1 victory over Boston College last Saturday night they clinched their sixth NCAA Men’s hockey title – a big congratulations to the Badgers. Toronto Maple Leaf draft pick Robbie Earl was fantastic in capturing the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award, and was surrounded by a talented supporting cast including goalie Brian Elliott and defenseman Tom Gilbert. The BC Eagles, the youngest team in the nation, put up a valiant effort but in the end were fortunate to keep the score as close as they did, thanks mostly to Vancouver draft pick Cory Schneider manning the Eagle crease.

Only a few decades ago this was the culmination of nearly every senior’s career – only a handful of American collegiate players went on to play in the NHL. Starting in the 80s - spearheaded by the now-legendary 1980 United States gold medal team - the NCAA began to produce better players and was no longer ignored by pro scouts. In this year’s tournament, for example, there were no less than 114 players distributed among the 16 participating teams who were drafted by NHL clubs, and others who haven’t been drafted but will doubtless be signed to free agent deals in the coming weeks.

Some of these players have already begun to sign with NHL clubs, and you can expect to see some of them playing in this final week of the regular season and even into the playoffs. Let’s take a quick glance at some players who may still make an impact this year.

The three finalists for the 2006 Hobey Baker Award will probably be seen in the NHL soon: Boston College’s Chris Collins is undrafted but is currently being wooed by a number of teams – after scoring only 29 goals in his first three years at BC, this year he exploded for 34 goals and 63 points, tied for tops in the nation. He’s professed an interest in his favorite team, Buffalo, but Boston is also rumored to be interested. Wisconsin goalie Brian Elliott is an Ottawa draft pick and is the top goalie in the nation, leading the country in goals-against average (1.55) and save percentage (.938). The eventual winner of the award, however, is already making an NHL impact on one of the better teams in the league…

Matt Carle – Defense – San Jose Sharks

The University of Denver’s Matt Carle captured this year’s Hobey Baker award, and thanks to Denver’s disappointing early season end, he has already signed with the Sharks and has been seeing quality ice time with them. Carle is a talented two-way defenseman, having put up fantastic numbers over his three years culminating in a big 53 point season this year. The Sharks are a team that has been playing consistently quality hockey since before the New Year and are poised to make a run deep into the postseason – it speaks volumes of Carle’s ability that he has already played eight games with the team, and has been able to contribute two goals and two assists in that time. He is getting between 15 and 20 minutes per game, and has cracked their top six. With this quick progression Carle could be a fixture on their blueline for the next few years.

Bill Thomas – Forward – Phoenix Coyotes

How many of you even knew that the University of Nebraska-Omaha had a hockey team, let alone a quality Division 1 program? They do, and this year they made the field of 16 only to receive a beatdown by Boston University in the first round. Star sophomore forward Bill Thomas led the team with 27 goals and decided to make the next step early, signing a deal with the Phoenix Coyotes. He has already gotten in six games, scoring three points (and adding six minutes in the box). Thomas has been playing with longtime NHL vet Geoff Sanderson and getting quality icetime – the Coyotes will be ending their season next week and can only benefit by giving Thomas as much of a look as possible before next year.

Ryan Potulny – Forward – Philadelphia Flyers

Potulny, who played with the University of Minnesota (victims of what has been called the biggest upset in NCAA hockey tournament history in losing to Holy Cross in the first round this year), signed with the Philadelphia Flyers and is another in a long line of Minnesota snipers – he led the nation in goals with 38 in 41 games, and was tied for the overall scoring title. Potulny has already seen action in two games with the Flyers (registering one assist) but with Philadelphia still pushing for a division title, I wouldn’t expect Potulny to get too much ice time this season, unless injuries hit them hard (keep an eye on Peter Forsberg) - he does have the skills that if needed he could provide offensive value right away.

Andy Greene – Defense – New Jersey Devils

The New Jersey Devils last week signed Miami (Ohio) University defenseman Andy Greene to a contract, although he has not yet seen action with the Devils. Greene is definitely a player to watch, as he became the first player in CCHA (Central Collegiate Hockey Association) history to win both Offensive and Defensive Defenseman of the Year awards. Greene scored 34 and 31 points over the past two years and never missed a game in his four years at Miami.

This is our last regular season Treasure Hunting article, as the season winds up this Tuesday night. Hopefully you are enjoying an easy final week in first place in your league, but if not there is still time to use these final games to your advantage. Don’t forget to take note of how many games each team has left and go crazy with adding and dropping players. And as noted fantasy basketball guru Brian Costello writes – beware of playoff teams resting their regulars down the stretch – if any particular team locks up a particular slot, look for them to try new line combinations and players over the final few games – pay attention and use this to your advantage. Many owners in your league are probably not paying attention this late in the year and you could have a free pass on any free agents out there.

Thanks for reading the column this year – as always feel free to write me with your comments and suggestions. Enjoy the playoffs and we’ll see you back in this slot next season.

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

Wales Watching - eve of playoffs

Wales Watching

Is the return of Pucky the Whale imminent? Will Brass Bonanza be once again ringing in the ears of Connecticut hockey fans? As the regular season winds down this week, what has been a long one for the Pittsburgh Penguins may have gotten even worse for the fans. Last week reports surfaced of a Massachusetts businessman wanting to buy the ailing Pittsburgh Penguins franchise and possibly move it to Hartford, Connecticut - Lawrence Gottesdiener is a developer who owns a good deal of land in Hartford and has stated that he would like to buy the Penguins and if he couldn’t keep them in Pittsburgh (doubtless tied to a new arena), he would love to move them to Hartford and build a new arena there on his land. Last night he and the mayor of Hartford even planned on attending the Blackhawks-Wild game in Minnesota to begin serious investigation of a franchise shift.

I seem to recall that when the Hartford Whalers moved south to become the Carolina Hurricanes the general feeling was that Hartford as a city could no longer support a big-league franchise – it was merely a symbol of an older time and a relic from the old World Hockey Association. Critics pointed to attendance plummeting over the final years of the franchise but to be fair, the organization was poorly run and the team rarely showed on-ice promise over much of their NHL history, only recording one playoff series victory in 18 seasons. They had a small but vocal fanbase that was slowly alienated by a series of unpopular and awful trades and a lack of vision that saw the team become bad but never quite bad enough to build from the bottom with franchise players – the notable exception being Chris Pronger whom they prematurely traded to St. Louis for the unhappy Brendan Shanahan, who was in turn dealt after one season.

The fact is that there are a few reasons why Hartford could make sense again –the Whalers do still have a vocal booster presence, the consistent success and popularity of the University of Connecticut’s basketball programs demonstrates a rabid area sports interest, and potentially the most important fact: Connecticut is the wealthiest state in the country in terms of per-capita income. These talks have Penguins fans panicking – this is a club that has gone through some bad times on the ice but with rookie Sidney Crosby about to be joined by Evgeni Malkin next year, and a host of young and talented players in their system, it is a club that should be ready to make a move up the standings within two or three years – the coming months could reveal if that move will also coincide with a move out of town.

Moving on to the games, and the playoff race – the teams are still jostling for position but it appears that the top eight teams are secure. Carolina and Ottawa are still battling for first in the East - the Buffalo Sabres are likely to comfortably settle for the number four seed behind the Atlantic division winners, either the New York Rangers or Philadelphia Flyers. Currently the hottest team in the East is the New Jersey Devils, winners of eight straight after defeating the Hurricanes last night in overtime. They’ve closed to within two points of the fifth place Flyers, yet are still only just four points ahead of another scorching team, the Montreal Canadiens, led by the still-unconscious Cristobal Huet in net. Pulling up the rear is the defending champ Tampa Bay Lightning, who would need a complete collapse to allow Atlanta to catch them. Of the teams on the outside looking in, I still like the Florida Panthers most of all. I’ve mentioned in a few columns that I can see the Panthers making a strong showing next year – provided they convince Roberto Luongo to stick around.

Being that this is the last regular season Wales Watching article for this year, and a time where many fans are thinking about end-of-year individual awards, I thought I’d throw down my personal awards on a team-by-team basis – focusing on the eight playoff teams this week – I’ll offer a team MVP, a team disappointment (if there are any), and either the most surprising or unsung player.

Carolina Hurricanes

MVP – Eric Staal – Leading the team in scoring and in the league’s top five for most of the season, the young Staal took the leap to stardom this year in leading this most surprising of success stories this NHL season.

Disappointment – anything here would be nitpicking - none.

Pleasant surprise – Martin Gerber – Gerber has become a rock in goal for the Canes and turned a big question mark into an exclamation point.

Ottawa Senators

MVP – Daniel Alfredsson. I could pick any of four or five players but to me when healthy Alfredsson is the best player in the game.

Disappointment – few, but the health of Dominik Hasek has been a constant worry.

Pleasant surprises – Ray Emery however, has taken over in goal and has mostly done an excellent job. Andrej Meszaros has enjoyed a fantastic rookie season on defence.

New York Rangers

MVP – Jaromir Jagr. Enough has been written about his resurgence, and all of it is true. Will likely win the Hart Trophy as league MVP.

Disappointment – scoring depth. no player really qualifies here, but their reliance on the top scorers Jagr, Michael Nylander, and Martin Straka could spell trouble.

Pleasant surprise – easy: Henrik Lundqvist in goal. In other years he’d win the Calder and Vezina – he’s been that good.

Buffalo Sabres

MVP – tie: Jochen Hecht and Daniel Briere. Hecht is the glue that makes the Sabres strong in all zones (they lost six straight immediately after losing Hecht to injury). Briere has put up superstar numbers since returning from a sports hernia.

Disappointment – Dmitri Kalinin. The big defenseman has the coaching staff’s confidence but I think they’ll have to cut their losses soon on this former first round pick.

Pleasant surprise – Tim Connolly. One of two acquired (Taylor Pyatt being the other) in the much-ridiculed-in-Buffalo Mike Peca deal. Everything changes this year - nobody would take Peca straight-up over Connolly now – Connolly’s stickhandling and speed fit perfectly into the Sabres’ system.

Philadelphia Flyers

MVP – Simon Gagne – Injuries kept him from having an even bigger season, but his 44 goals in 67 games easily lead the team.

Disappointment – Peter Forsberg and his groin injury. Typically fantastic when healthy, his missing nearly a quarter of the season arguably cost them a top three seed.

Pleasant surprise – Mike Knuble – set a career high in goals with 33 to date.

New Jersey Devils

MVP – Brian Gionta. The former college superstar has become everyone’s favourite little big man, with a career season and 45 goals to date.

Disappointment – Alexander Mogilny. Remember him? Currently on the Devils’ payroll…in the minor leagues.

Pleasant surprise – Gionta. Everyone knew he had talent, but nobody thought he could battle and become one of the league’s premier wingers.

Montreal Canadiens

MVP – Holy Mackinaw, is there even a question here? Cristobal Huet.

Disappointment – lack of Jose Theodore’s return to MVP status. Although this ended up being the best thing to happen to the team due to Huet’s emergence.

Pleasant surprise – Huet. OK – Huet only has 34 games played to date and I’m not advocating him winning it, but he should get serious Vezina respect (I’d put him third behind Mikka Kiprusoff and Lundqvist). Hey, John Tucker won the OHL’s MVP in 1984 after playing only 39 games. Yeah, I referenced John Tucker.

Tampa Bay Lightning

MVP – Brad Richards – setting a career high in points and leading the team through a rough title-defence year. Plays nearly 23 minutes per game.

Disappointment – plenty: Martin St. Louis – did he really win the Hart trophy last season??? The abrupt end to the classy Dave Andreychuk’s career. John Grahame not stepping up into the top goalie role. Making the playoffs despite these issues is proof at how talented this squad is.

Unsung player – Fredrick Modin is one of the most unheralded 30 goal scorers in the league and leads all Lightning forwards in +/-.

Kelly, Aubin, Bernier

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

04/06/06

We now have two weeks to go in this regular season, and with every passing day the playoff picture crystallizes a bit more. In terms of fantasy hockey, if you’re in a head-to-head league this is a week where many leagues are playing their championship rounds, and it could be time to get creative with some quick add/drops.

You might be looking for individual category help – if we look at who has been hot over the past month, +/- is a category where you can pick up a relative unknown and capitalize – sure you’ll have your offensive studs from Ottawa dominating the list but did you know that defencemen Steve Montador (Florida) and Shaone Morrisonn (Washington) are both a +9 this month? They’re probably available in your league and even though you might not get much point production out of them, a solid +/- acquisition can help you win that category. Beware of deceptive players like Buffalo’s Brian Campbell – a thrilling player (both positively and negatively) who will do damage on the Sabre power play but will also give coach Lindy Ruff nightmares if he’s on the ice trying to help protect a one-goal lead (a brutal -9 over the last four weeks). Red Wing defenceman Niklas Kronwall has managed to forge a +12 rating after just 20 games, while Anaheim defenceman Francois Beauchemin has put up a +8 with nine points this past month.

Looking to rough it up over the final few games? Nashville’s Brendan Witt has a nice 44 minutes in the box in the 12 games since being acquired by the Predators, establishing himself as their enforcer on the blue line, and he’s likely to help you on +/- as well, being on a quality team (he is +4 with Nashville thus far). Carolina’s Mike Commodore is another good bet, with 35 minutes on the month, while being a responsible +4 (with 13 points on the season, you might get lucky with a point or two). Up at forward, Capitals’ center Jeff Halpern has been mixing it up of late, with 31 minutes and nine points in his last 15 games.

And now for something completely different, let’s move on from some niche categories to our more traditional recommendations - three other players who are peaking at the end of the season that you should take a gamble on….

Chris Kelly, Center, Ottawa Senators

Ottawa started the season on such a roll that they were inviting (premature) comparisons to such great teams as the late-70s Flying Frenchmen Montreal Canadiens and freewheeling 1980s Edmonton Oilers. In retrospect – and even at the time – it was foolish, seeing as they hadn’t even reached the end of the season; this is also a franchise yet (in its modern-day incarnation) to even reach the Cup finals. The Senators hit a slide in mid-season, due in part to a series of injuries. Yet as often is the case, the injuries may have been a blessing in disguise, as it enabled the franchise to take a look at some youngsters who wouldn’t have had a chance otherwise – Patrick Eaves and Ray Emery are two players who we’ve looked at earlier in the year, and are making strong contributions to the squad and now rookie center Chris Kelly is taking center stage for the Sens.

Kelly had a great junior career spent mostly with the London Knights of the Ontario League, helping to lead a formerly moribund franchise from the depths of the league to the brink of a title in just two years. He peaked at 36 goals and 77 points in 68 games (adding 26 more points in a 25 game playoff run) in his best year in 1999 which culminated in him being drafted by Ottawa in the third round that June.

Kelly has since never been placed in a scoring role; instead he has developed his defensive skills and used his all-around play to help him earn a job with the parent club this year. For most of the first three months Kelly was a role player, earning a few fourth-line minutes each night, but around the new year his ice time began to dramatically increase into the teens. And since then he has started to find himself on the scoresheet – he has 11 points since the Olympic break and within the past few weeks has struck fantasy gold – a home on a line with superstars Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley.

His emphasis is still on playing defensive hockey – against the Rangers last week he was given the task of shadowing Jaromir Jagr and helped to hold Jagr to one assist in over 24 minutes of play. Chris Kelly is playing great hockey right now – although he only has 27 points on the season, his scoring rate is increasing and if you need a spot center over the last few games you could do far worse than him.

Jean-Sebastien Aubin, Goalie, Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs’ season has pretty much been a disaster – no need to recount it here. Eddie “Billion-Dollar” Belfour was counted on to lead the club between the pipes this year but he calcified before Toronto fans’ eyes and is out for the year with a back injury, not likely to wear the Maple Leaf on his sweater again. But when Belfour hit the disabled list last month it was expected that Mikael Tellqvist would take the reins as Toronto’s goalie-of-the future. Yet here we are in early April, the Leafs pitifully hanging on to hopes of gaining the last playoff spot and they’ve given four straight starts to veteran Jean-Sebastian Aubin instead. Puzzling on the surface. Yet…hard to argue with the results thus far…

When Aubin was recalled from the Leafs’ local AHL affiliate (Toronto Marlies) in mid-March he was expected to ride the bench behind the younger Tellqvist; Aubin’s AHL stats this year were nothing remarkable. Tellqvist did start eight straight in March, winning four of them. Yet after getting blasted in a two game series in Montreal, the Leafs were desperate and turned to Aubin. In the four games since, Aubin has won three, and was spectacular in a tough shootout-loss to the rival Sabres.

Aubin is not a long-term answer for the Leafs (who never seem to see a long-term picture – do they have any sort of development plan whatsoever?). Young Leaf draft picks Justin Pogge and Tuukka Rask will be with the team within three years and battling for the goaltending position. Regardless, it seems that Pat Quinn, John Ferguson and whoever else are making personnel decisions for Toronto have little faith in Tellqvist, and enough in Aubin to ride him out. Aubin has undoubtedly been spectacular over the four games, with a gaudy .945 save percentage and only seven goals allowed. If you’re looking for a goalie, he would be a good band-aid for the rest of the season.

Steve Bernier, Winger, San Jose Sharks

Last week I wrote that the Sharks have been fairly top-heavy in terms of their offensive production this year, getting most of their scoring out of a select few premier players like Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Jonathan Cheechoo. I may have spoken too soon, as yet another rookie has begun to establish himself this year as a producer in the NHL – young winger Steve Bernier of the San Jose Sharks. As San Jose desperately tries to make the playoffs, Bernier has notched six points in his last five games; more impressive is that in his last 11 games he has points in nine of them.

Bernier has always been a high-profile scorer, having been the first overall pick in the Quebec League draft in 2001, taken by the Moncton Wildcats. He had a successful career as a scorer in junior, playing four years for Moncton, topping off at 49 goals and 101 points in his second year which caused his stock to soar even more – the Sharks traded up in the draft in 2003 to take him 16^th overall. Bernier then developed a physical style of play, giving the Sharks hope that he would eventually become a productive power forward for them. Last year in his final season with Moncton he scored at a point-per-game pace while notching 114 penalty minutes in just 68 games.

This season he had been up and down between San Jose and the Cleveland Barons (their AHL affiliate), but appears to be here to stay after his latest post-Olympic run. While in Cleveland he led the team in points with 43 in 49 games, including 20 goals, and he has carried that over to the big leagues – in his 31 games with the Sharks he now has 23 points and 31 penalty minutes (although 19 of them came in a one-game freak-out against Nashville last month), seeing time on a line with Marleau. Steve Bernier is worth a pickup in nearly every fantasy situation.

Thanks for reading – next week will wrap up our regular season Treasure Hunting – see you then!

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