Wideman, Thomas, Bryzgalov

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

02/02/06

As we progress further into this season, it becomes harder to find that “diamond in the rough” for your teams. One of the better ways to uncover late-season help is by keeping your eyes on teams in transition - it can reveal players getting better opportunities or simply more ice-time, which may translate into better numbers. I’m specifically referring to teams either changing their philosophy of team-building (as in trading of veterans to free up money and begin rebuilding with youth – see Pittsburgh, Boston, St. Louis) or inadvertently having to look elsewhere due to circumstance, i.e. injuries.

Today we’ll take a look at a few players who unquestionably have risks associated with them – earlier in the year they wouldn’t be players I would flat-out recommend for long term pickup – yet at this point if you’re looking for a pickup, then you’re probably struggling to contend in your league. It’s time to start taking some chances and to make some risky pickups – there are major question marks regarding all of these, mostly in terms of “how much of an opportunity will they actually get?” Yet in following these players closely over the next week, you might be first to grab them if/when it becomes apparent that they have been fully worked into their team’s lineups…

Seeing as much of this column has focused on forwards over the year - as that obviously tends to be where the more offensive oriented players play - we’ll dedicate the bulk of the column to the back end of the ice; at defense and goaltending.

Dennis Wideman, Defense, St. Louis Blues

We'll dispense with all the "fire-sale" analogies surrounding the St. Louis Blues and focus on the potential opportunity that has opened up for virtually everyone in the organization. One player that I've had my eye on for years is the Blues' rookie defenseman Dennis Wideman. By all possible measures, he had a highly successful five-year junior career - he began in Sudbury then really elevated his game upon a trade to the London Knights where he helped to lead them from a bad squad in 2001 to the top of the league three years later. Wideman is a highly skilled offensive defenseman, with a keen awareness of everyone on the ice around him. In London he became the quarterback of the power play and on-ice leader on a team loaded with junior stars - his final season was marked by leading the Ontario League in efficiency with a +51.

Wideman was drafted by Buffalo in 2002 in the eighth round but was never signed by the Sabres. He was inked to a free agent deal by the Blues in 2004 and plied his trade in the AHL until this year, when he got the opportunity with the big club.

With being a point-per-game defenseman (in both the regular season and playoffs) throughout his three years in London, what's been the impediment to his ascent to the NHL? As much as big numbers look flashy on a defenseman's scoresheet, his primary role is of course defense. And rightly or wrongly, that had been the knock on Wideman for years by scouts - his defense was not "NHL-caliber" – combined with a perception that he wasn't big enough to have an impact.

Breaking into the NHL with St. Louis this season might have been the perfect situation for Wideman. This year he has been getting a shot on a bad club that very possibly could get even worse before getting better. Wideman has increased his ice-time to where he's getting over 20 minutes a game (with a season-high of over 28 minutes Monday night against Calgary, and a shootout goal to boot). Overall he has 17 points in 36 games but with nine in the last month and increased responsibilities I'd expect those numbers to rise. Don't expect anything out of his plus-minus; on this team only one semi-regular (Matt Walker) is NOT a minus. If you're looking for points from defense, Wideman could be a nice surprise for the rest of the season.

Tim Thomas, Goaltender, Boston Bruins

If you live in New England, you're no doubt quite familiar with what 31-year old “rookie” Tim Thomas has been doing this past month, but others may be late in coming to the party. The Bruins overall have had a fairly miserable season; considered in some corners to be a division contender this year, they had a horrible start and then they further alienated much of their dwindling fan base by dealing their captain Joe Thornton to San Jose. What was supposed to be a strong point - their goaltending - with reigning Calder Trophy winner Andrew Raycroft and top rookie prospect Hannu Toivonen backing him up - became a huge problem. Raycroft suffered from poor play and injury, then when Toivonen seemed to settle the problem with decent play he severely sprained his ankle early last month against Ottawa and is out indefinitely. At that point Boston fans were thinking their team was closer to Phil Kessel, Erik Johnson, or Jonathan Toews in the June draft than the playoffs.

Ah...enter the savior: Tim Thomas. Thomas certainly hasn't taken the direct route to the NHL. A member of the outstanding University of Vermont teams of the mid-90s (and teammate of reigning Hart winner Martin St. Louis) he's played in Finland, the ECHL, IHL, and AHL - on no less than nine teams before getting called up to Boston on January 10th. So the expectations - if there were any - were fairly minimal at best.

Fast forward to this Wednesday - Thomas had played in nine straight games, the most for a Boston goaltender this season, and won six of the seven decided in regulation (and in that loss he still managed 47 saves while only letting in four in a barrage from the Islanders). On Tuesday night he earned his first NHL shutout against what many people feel is the best team in the league, the Ottawa Senators. More importantly, the Bruins have moved squarely into the playoff discussion in the East, having maneuvered to within two points of the eighth and final playoff spot.

And now the ultimate question: who is the Bruins' number one goaltender? GM Mike O'Connell has said that they will go with whoever is playing the best - considering nobody else is currently playing at all, that would be Thomas. With Raycroft back from injury (and the subject of trade rumours all year) we shall see, but if you're struggling with goaltending Thomas is worthy of an immediate pickup and may end the season as Boston's top man.

Ilya Bryzgalov, Goaltender, Anaheim Ducks

(Seeing as Anaheim is planning on dropping "Mighty" from their name next year, I'll happily play along early. I only wish they could take the old moniker California Golden Seals...)

How long ago does it seem that the Ducks made their storybook run to game seven of the Cup finals? Jean-Sebastien Giguere was the talk of the league, as his two-month-long dominance nearly single-handedly got the title of a Disney movie engraved on Lord Stanley's Cup <>. After becoming just the third player on a losing team to win the Conn Smythe award for playoff MVP, the future of the Ducks seemed to be squarely on his shoulders, yet they've struggled. This year seems to be a transitional one for Anaheim, as they finally appear to be making a turn towards youth - one that should benefit them in years to come.

Where does Giguere fit in all of this? He should be the centerpiece of the youth movement but that now appears to be in some question. Following his classic freak-out last week against Edmonton the Ducks have at least temporarily turned to rookie Ilya Bryzgalov - he has played and won the last three games for Anaheim, putting them on a parallel with the Bruins in the West as they have moved into ninth place, three points out of the final spot.

Even without the recent streak, Bryzgalov's important season numbers (goals against and save percentage) are better than Giguere's. With Giguere making about four million dollars this year, it is conceivable that he could be shopped around if the club has confidence in Bryzgalov to carry the load for the next few years. After four full seasons in Cincinnati of the AHL, Bryzgalov is probably in the NHL to stay for a while, whether it is as starter or backup. A team like Anaheim doesn't have much to lose seeing if the younger (and cheaper) Bryzgalov can do the job for them - he's another goalie worth taking a chance on with a pickup. You're likely to know within a few games whether he'll remain as the main man in Anaheim.

Other early-February Players of Note

Buffalo: watch for captain Chris Drury and rookie Thomas Vanek, currently linemates (with winger Mike Grier). With the injury to top center Tim Connolly and JP Dumont not yet fully effective upon his return, Drury has had to take on an even bigger offensive role and he is responding. He has a reputation of being a clutch performer and his recent play hasn't changed that perception with 11 points in his last nine games. Vanek has had a streaky rookie season and is on a mini one now, with four goals in his last three games.

Columbus: Columbus is still a team that will end up far out of the playoffs but they've figured something out, having won seven of their last ten - winger David Vyborny has led the way in January. He's been on fire with 16 points in his last 11 games, including six multiple-point games.

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

1st rounders: Ladd, Parise, Eaves, Lehtonen

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

01/26/06

“…With our first pick in this year’s NHL draft, we are pleased to select…”

…and with those words a young draftee’s professional life is forever changed, and forever defined. A first round pick in the National Hockey League automatically brings high hopes…and high expectations. The label “first-round pick” will remain with a player throughout his career and beyond. Often that label is an albatross which becomes impossible for a player to shed if the player doesn’t reach elite status. Rarely does a fan look back at his or her favorite team’s first round picks and not utter a simple declaration of “great” or “bust.” Unfair? Of course it is – labeling an 18-year old as a potential franchise savior is often a crapshoot as there lies the very possibility that a particular player peaks at that age and never improves. For every Guy Lafleur there’s a Brian Lawton; for every Denis Potvin there’s a Greg Joly. For every Mario Lemieux there’s…well, there’s an Alexandre Daigle, billed as a Lemieux clone based on his astronomical stats in the Quebec League. Daniel Tkaczuk, Rico Fata (sorry Calgary Fans), Jason Bonsignore…the list is endless. Even to this day if you mention Morris Titanic or Jiri Dudacek to old-time Sabres fans you’ll get eyes rolling skyward. My point is this: from the moment a player is selected in the first round, they will forever be etched into that team’s history. Nobody remembers a seventh-rounder that never made it at the top level.

This week we’ll be profiling some recent first round picks who have yet to become stars or household names - it is too early to tell whether they’ll be looked back at as stars or busts as they are all still in the very early part of their careers (all are NHL rookies this year) but each one is beginning to have an impact on their respective teams. In fairness, with the expansion of the league to 30 teams, what is now a late first-round pick would – in 1969 (the advent of the modern amateur draft) – have been an early third-round pick. The counter-argument can be made that with the huge expansion of international talent it evens out. But that’s nitpicking, isn’t it?

Andrew Ladd, Winger, Carolina Hurricanes

Andrew Ladd was drafted fourth overall in 2004 by the Hurricanes, so will obviously be carrying some pretty high expectations; in fact, the Hurricanes traded up (by dealing a few lower picks to Columbus) to specifically get Ladd. He has a relatively different resume than most top prospects, with only two seasons of major junior in Canada in the Western Hockey League – he spent the two seasons before entering the WHL starring in British Columbia Junior B and A leagues. After turning professional this season with the Lowell Lock Monsters of the AHL he notched seven goals in just 15 games, then got the big call in November to join Carolina and ever since – in short time – he’s had great success. His overall numbers are impressive – six goals in his first 11 games, and that after being held off the scoresheet for his first two games. He was getting quality ice time on a top-level team, averaging nearly 16 minutes per game until he ripped up his knee in December….

Ladd was selected by the ‘Canes in 2004 after having a great rookie year with the Calgary Hitmen of the WHL in 2003-2004, when he was the leading rookie scorer in the league with 75 points – one scout compared him favorably to Rick Nash. However, in his second season he dropped off offensively to 45 points, yet his gritty play contributed to him earning 167 penalty minutes that season which attracted the Carolina brass. Ladd plays an up-tempo game and has mostly been a playmaker in his career, despite the outstanding goal scoring prowess he’s shown in his thus far very short NHL career. One impressive number is that his six goals to date have come on only 21 shots, good for a 28.6% shooting percentage.

…now back to that knee: Ladd returned on January 17^th after six weeks on the shelf and played a few minutes against Phoenix. In each game since (four in total) he has seen his ice-time increase – likely a wise move to make sure he’s fully healthy. Ladd has responded very well on the scoresheet, with two goals and his first NHL assist in the last three games. In his last game against Montreal, he played mostly with Rod Brind'Amour and Justin Williams, logging over ten minutes on the ice in 17 shifts. If Ladd continues this progression, he not only could make a surprise positive addition to your fantasy team in terms of points, he could round out an already-talented Hurricanes team that has their sights realistically set on a deep playoff run.

Zach Parise, Center, New Jersey Devils

I was surprised in 2003 when Zach Parise fell all the way to the 17^th pick in the first round (although that class is already shaping up to be quite strong). Parise is a unique offensive dynamo – he created quite a buzz even before his draft year in his time spent at the famous hockey factory of Shattuck-St. Mary’s prep school in Minnesota where in his senior season he scored 73 goals and 174 points in 63 games. In two years at the University of North Dakota he was a two-time Hobey Baker finalist while scoring 116 points in just 76 games. In his second season he was the most valuable player for the USA at the World Junior Championships, leading them to a gold medal by leading the tournament in scoring. That was clearly enough to convince the Devils that he was ready to turn pro, and Parise headed to Albany of the AHL last year. Even though his raw numbers weren’t at an elite level – 58 points in 73 games – he was the fifth-highest scoring rookie and was a starter on the AHL all-star team.

This year Parise made the jump to New Jersey, but immediately faced a big depth problem - Parise has played in 48 of the Devils’ 49 games this year but with the Devils’ other centers including Scott Gomez, John Madden, and Erik Rasmussen, quality ice time was limited. The Devils seemed to bring him along slowly this season as he saw inconsistent ice time throughout most of the first half of the season. Yet almost exactly coinciding with the “changing of the guard” behind the bench from Larry Robinson to Lou Lamoriello, Parise has seen his ice time increase, never dipping below ten minutes and often now playing in the 15 minute range, and just as important he’s been getting roughly 20 shifts every night.

Parise has been playing on a line with Sergei Brylin and Victor Kozlov. His status as a center will make him a little less valuable and only worthwhile this year in deep leagues – but there is no denying his great offensive talent (see last Saturday’s shootout winner vs. the Islanders). Watch him and if he continues to impress his new coach he should see more and more offensive (read: power play) opportunities. Zach Parise is on track to be a star in the NHL within the next few years and if you are in a keeper league, he is worth stowing away.

Patrick Eaves, Winger, Ottawa Senators

Another talent coming out of Shattuck in Minnesota, Patrick Eaves took his game to the east coast and the strong NCAA program at Boston College in 2002. Patrick’s freshman campaign was sadly marked by a terrible collision with an opposing goaltender (Merrimack’s Joe Exter) which left the goalie in a coma and Eaves with a concussion. His tough year seemingly came at a tough time in his draft year but the Ottawa Senators knew his talent and took him with their first pick in the first round in 2003, at #29 overall. Eaves went on to two more full seasons at BC, scoring at well over a point-a-game pace with 87 in 70 games.

This year, being Eaves’ first pro season, has seen him bounce between Binghamton of the AHL and Ottawa no less than five times already. Ottawa went through a string of injuries in the past few months and Eaves was called on to fill in as the team got healthy. If he continues to play at his current rate, he may not see central New York for a while. Eaves has been one of the Senators crucial players over the past few weeks as they’ve battled through their first adversity of the season – in his last seven games Eaves has six points and has been a fantastic +7.

Eaves has the offensive skills to be a top-six forward in the league – he’ll eventually get a chance to play on a line with other premier talents but with the Senators boasting a loaded offense, Eaves is learning the finer points of the NHL game on Ottawa’s third line with Chris Kelly and Vaclav Varada and has quietly totaled 10 goals through his first 24 NHL games. Eaves bears watching: if one of Ottawa’s top forwards again suffers an injury, Eaves would be a good bet to step up on one of their top lines.

Kari Lehtonen, Goaltender, Atlanta Thrashers

Kari Lehtonen is the highest-drafted of our profiles this week, having gone second overall in 2002 to Atlanta (behind Rick Nash and ahead of the highly-touted Jay Bouwmeester). The NHL’s Central Scouting Bureau (seen as the standard authority for objective player rankings for NHL teams) had him ranked as the highest-ranked European prospect, but it was still seen as risky or cutting-edge to take a goalie so high in the draft. Nevertheless, the Thrashers took the chance that Lehtonen could be the cornerstone for their franchise for the next decade along with Ilya Kovalchuk. At the time, Lehtonen became the second-highest drafted goalie to date (Rick DiPietro, Islanders’ #1 overall, 2000 – since then Marc-Andre Fleury was taken first in 2003 by Pittsburgh). Lehtonen was seen as a “can’t-miss prospect” in many circles – twice he was awarded as outstanding goalie of the professional Finnish elite league SM-Liiga while playing for Jokerit (he became their starting goalie at age 18) and twice he was named Hockey News’ top prospect.

The Thrashers had high hopes for this season with Lehtonen in goal but he suffered a terrible groin injury in his first game of the season and Atlanta struggled for consistency for two months, going through a parade of goaltenders and trying to stay afloat in the Eastern Conference. He finally returned to the team just before the end of December, and if there was any question as to how effective he’d be, Lehtonen won five in a row in early January to help put the Thrashers firmly into the playoff discussion in the East. In limited time (12 games through Wednesday) he’s put up a 2.57 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage, and has given up three or less goals in each of his last six games. It certainly appears that health is no longer an issue for him.

Despite a recent slump by the team, look for Lehtonen to get virtually all the work between the pipes for Atlanta from here on out as he and players like Kovalchuk, Marc Savard, Marian Hossa and Slava Kozlov try and help push this team to their first playoff birth. If for some reason Lehtonen has been overlooked in your league due to his late start to the season, pick him up immediately.

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

struggles: Bruins and Penguins

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

01/19/06

As we’ve passed the halfway point of this season, it seems a logical spot for teams to self-evaluate. Have they been successful to this point? Or has the season been a disappointment? For some teams who had high hopes, this can be a point at which they attempt to turn the tide – either by changing coaches, personnel, or even philosophy on building a team.

Two of the more disappointing teams this year would be the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins, both currently safely ensconced in last place in their respective divisions. I say “disappointing” in that many writers predicted both clubs to make the playoffs and even make some noise advancing in the spring. Yet in retrospect those were puzzling predictions – to me it seemed that both clubs had decisions to make: “do we focus on our very young talent and nurture it for a few seasons or do we make some noise with free agent signings and try to immediately jump ahead of our learning curve and “go for it” this year?” Well as you may know, both teams chose the “sign a bunch of free agents” route, fans and writers were blinded, and virtually none of those signings have worked out.

That hazy/unsure mix of “we like our young talent…but let’s still spend lots of money on aging veterans” rarely works, and I think often backfires on an organization. My philosophy would be to make a commitment either way (although I’d almost always steer towards building a young team), and stick it out. The New York Rangers – an active endorsement on how *not* to assemble an NHL team over most of the past decade, finally weren’t afraid to let their youth shine through this year and (along with a dramatic resurgence from Jaromir Jagr) it has kept them near the top of their division all season long. Aside from Jagr, their two most important players this year have been rookies Henrik Lundqvist and Petr Prucha. The Buffalo Sabres suffered a painful few years through bankruptcy and the departure of veteran stars. They claimed to have a plan in place, which didn’t sit well with fans but finally this season the club has gelled and after a cool start has been near the top of the league standings ever since. The team may not have the superstars that casual fans would recognize but they have an overloaded roster filled with skilled players - the franchise has been so deep, that call-ups like Jason Pominville, Dan Paille, and Derek Roy have stepped in due to injuries and the team has lost virtually nothing. If they can find a way to keep them all together they should be a force for the next few seasons.

Despite the disappointing seasons thus far by the Penguins and Bruins, there are still bright lights in their organizations. And they have both made mid-season moves, both minor and major, that perhaps point to them realizing their missteps and attempting to correct them midstream. If the moves have come too late to see postseason success this year, they should benefit the health of the franchises in the near future. Today we’re taking a look at a few of the youngsters on those teams….

Michel Ouellet, Winger, Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins are a very bad hockey team right now. 11 wins in 46 games bad. I didn’t like the way they “built” the team in the summer – the multiple veteran signings smacked of desperation, when they have so much youth on the roster that I felt they should have let develop. Finally, to not let their goaltender of the future Marc-Andre Fleury even stay on the roster (due to his potential bonuses) and watch the team bury itself in the initial months…it must have been very frustrating for a Penguins fan who was fed so much hype on the heels of all the off-season activity, highlighted by Sidney Crosby’s arrival. The vets didn’t play well, Super Mario finally played like his age says he should, and their defence was abysmal. December rolled around, coach Ed Olcyck was fired and Michel Therrien was hired from their AHL team in Scranton. While the team’s overall fate hasn’t been any better at all, at least one bright light has been found – winger Michel Ouellet. Ouellet played three early-season games under Eddie O, but didn’t get much of an opportunity – averaging about 10 minutes per game. He was sent down to Scranton…and coach Michel Therrien…where he potted 10 goals and 30 points in just 19 games.

When Therrien was hired as coach of the Pens he called Ouellet up to the big club within one day. Ouellet responded immediately. He scored points in nine of his first ten games, including an amazing ten goals. He has cooled off in recent games to put his overall numbers at 11 goals and 17 points in 18 games. Incredibly, he’s only a -3 considering he’s only been on the Pens for four wins this year (against 14 losses). He has made his mark on the power play with nine goals and 13 points, perhaps not making him the next Tim Kerr (or even J.F. Sauve) but still producing at an impressive clip. Only twice since his recall on December 16^th has he failed to register a shot on goal, and in fact his shooting percentage is an outrageous .355. Ouellet was a member of the Rimouski Oceanic in the Quebec Junior league (and a teammate of Brad Richards) where he racked up 118 goals over his final three seasons. He took that scoring talent to the next level with Scranton and over his first two seasons hit the 30 goal mark each time.

Due in part to the season being over three months old (his totals compared to other players’ season totals wouldn’t stick out) and the general ineptitude of the Penguins he’s still available in some leagues. Although I hardly expect him to keep up this pace all season, if the Penguins reshape themselves and continue to give young players like Ouellet a legitimate shot at being the future face of the team, I have high hopes for him and the Penguins in coming seasons.

Tomas Surovy, Winger, Pittsburgh Penguins

Wow, two Penguins? Could this youth movement be a return to the days of Pierre Larouche and Rick Kehoe (yes, I just wanted to drop those names)? Tomas Surovy was another mid-season recall by the Penguins - Surovy came up on December 11^th. He played parts of the past two seasons with the Penguins, having some success in 2003-04 with 11 goals in 47 games. Yet possibly due to that previously mentioned Penguins inability to fully commit to a youth movement, he found himself beginning the season in the American Hockey League with Scranton (where he notched 28 points in 25 games). Noting a pattern here? Hello Mr. Therrien. Surovy actually made it to Pittsburgh about a week before Therrien – in the two games before the coaching change Surovy was held without a point and was a -1. In the first six games under the new coaching staff, Surovy had eight points and was a +2 (the team was 2-4).

Although Surovy has tailed off of late in Pittsburgh, this might be a time to keep an eye on him as other owners might not be noticing him. The young Czech was drafted in the fourth round in 2001 by Pittsburgh and spent most of the next four seasons assigned to their American Hockey League affiliate in Scranton, with the occasional cup of coffee with the big club in Pittsburgh. His second season in Scranton proved his best as he scored at a point-per-game clip and tallied 19 goals in just 39 games before being recalled. The troubling mark on Surovy’s career thus far might be his consistency. He seemed to take a step back the next few years in the AHL until this year before his call-up. A big attraction to Surovy is his linemates: Crosby and Ziggy Palffy – despite criticisms of Palffy, to me he’s been the only “name” addition who has done anything of worth this year. If Surovy continues to play alongside those two he’ll put up good numbers the rest of the way.

Yikes! Late news: Ziggy Palffy suddenly announced his retirement on Wednesday. You should note how this might affect line combinations on the Penguins.

Brad Boyes, Center, Boston Bruins

Continuing with our “lousy black and gold” theme this week, we move on to the Bruins. Brad Boyes is a very interesting player– he was a first round pick by the Leafs back in 2000 and then was shuttled in the Owen Nolan deal to San Jose, then finally to Boston a year later. Boyes’ game is offence – he twice won the Ontario Hockey League’s outstanding player award with the Erie Otters, amassing 167 points in his last 106 games in those two seasons – his last culminating in an incredible 22 goals in 21 playoff games while leading the Otters to the OHL championship. He also starred for Canada in the World Junior Championships that season, helping them win silver and ending up second in overall scoring with nine points.

Boyes’ statistics with the Bruins this year aren’t super: in 45 games he has 10 goals and 25 points. I think those numbers can and should rise. First of all, his average ice time has to this point been the second-least of any Boston regular. He’s shown a willingness to play a strong two-way game; some evidence of that is in his +4 efficiency rating - best on the team. Boyes has been moved between different lines a good deal this season as the Bruins try to find any identity. One good sign is that he has been matched up with Marco Sturm and Patrice Bergeron at times – two of their best offensive players.

On a larger scale, Joe Thornton’s departure should have sent a clear sign to Boyes and the rest of the club that they are the future. Speaking of which - while I don’t want to come out and say I necessarily liked the Thornton trade from a Bruins’ point of view, I hardly saw it as the disaster that so many in the media portrayed it as. It’s a new opportunity for the team. Thornton is a great talent but for a variety of factors it wasn’t happening in Boston. I don’t see Thornton as a player who can take a team by himself and carry it – that’s no indictment, only a handful of players in recent years could fall into that category (Peter Forsberg and Jerome Iginla come to mind – going back a few years: Ray Bourque and Dominik Hasek). Thornton is doing well playing with some like-minded players in San Jose. The Bruins may not have received “name-players” back in the deal but all three were former first rounders, including Brad Stuart who should anchor their blue line for a long time. The point I’m (slowly) getting at is that there comes a time when you have to realize that “the plan” (whatever it may be) isn’t working, and you have to start over. That’s not easy, least of all from a marketing or fan perspective. “Hey, we know we stink and it’ll take some time but we hope you stick with us as we blow it all up and start over!” – aside from being too long to fit on a billboard, you’re alienating your fans. But building from the ground up can be rewarding as it inevitably is the most efficient way of assembling a team that will compete year after year.

Boston’s top two centers now are Patrice Bergeron and Brad Boyes; two former junior superstars who should now expect to be the main men in Boston at center ice. Now is the time for Boyes to become the player he should be – a quality scoring centerman. I believe the rest of this season will be important to Boyes’ development, so keep an eye on his numbers, and especially if he gets an increase in ice-time (and power play opportunities). If he gets hot, he could be picking up confidence and he has the talent to keep a hot streak going.

Milan Jurcina, Defense, Boston Bruins

Milan Jurcina is another key to the future progress of the Bruins’ franchise. Jurcina was a low-risk gamble by the Bruins, taken in the eighth round of the 2001 draft while playing in the Quebec League for Halifax. He soon developed into a steady leader for the Mooseheads (yup, named after and backed by the famed brewery), and putting up decent numbers for the first-place squad in 2003 with 15 goals and 102 penalty minutes in just 51 games.

Jurcina will likely never develop into a top offensive defenceman – his strengths are his…strength (he’s listed at six foot four, 233 pounds) and defensive play. On a less-than-average team he has maintained a +3 rating, quite impressive especially for a rookie defenceman. Yet after scoring (gulp) just one point in his first 19 games, he has suddenly and shockingly turned up his offensive game with six points in his last five games. One reason for the stunning reversal is that he’s taking shots. In those first 19 games he took as many as two shots in a game only three times and averaged well under a shot per game. In these last five games he’s had 12 shots on goal, showing much more willingness to jump into the play. He recently admitted to being too nervous to be more aggressive earlier in the season and dumping the puck into the corner rather than take a chance with a shot.

While it’s unclear how much Jurcina will be counted on once Brian Leetch returns from a groin injury, the Bruins’ staff has had their eyes opened to the potential that the young Slovak brings to the Boston blueline (aside: Jurcina was named to next month’s Slovakian Olympic team). If he continues to be paired with the highly skilled Brad Stuart he may continue to see his confidence – and offensive contributions – grow.

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

WJC II - Stoll, Getzlaf, Meszaros

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

01/12/06

The 2006 World Junior Championships are over and a hearty congratulations to Canada for an underdog gold medal winning performance, their second title in a row. Last year Canada assembled a roster that experts put outrageous pressure on to win gold - which they did - bringing such accolades as “best junior team of all time.” En route to a perfect 6-0 record, they outscored their opposition 41-7. This year the team was relatively unheralded and at best even money to even earn a medal. USA got the lion’s share of publicity, but as it turned out the team never gelled (no doubt due to their horrible uniforms – I digress: how hard would it be to dress the USA in vintage 1980 Olympic sweaters? Aside from being visually superior, I’d have to think it might actually attract a little media attention in the States) they were a bust and finished fourth.

Canada had a lack of “star” power in this year’s tournament but used a punishing team-oriented attack spearheaded by tournament all-star and general agitator (as well as Philadelphia Flyers’ first round pick in 2005) Steve Downie to dominate from start to finish, culminating in a 5-0 whitewashing of the dynamic Russian team (led by Evgeni Malkin, whom I would expect to be seen profiled in this column next year playing alongside Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh).

As I mentioned in last week’s column, this tournament needs to be fully televised in the United States. With the specialty programming now offered through cable, there aren’t many good excuses why at least the medal round couldn’t be shown somewhere. While fully understanding that hockey is viewed in dramatically different terms in Canada as opposed to the States, last year’s final game between Canada and Russia attracted over three million Canadian viewers. With a little marketing (…ahem…1980 Olympic uniforms) I would think some fledgling US cable broadcaster wouldn’t mind taking a chance.

For the second week in a row, we’re spotlighting recent World Junior participants now playing in the NHL, and ones to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. One in particular has “arrived” and if he’s flying under your league’s radar, snap him up – the other two are projected future stars for you to monitor in the coming weeks…

Jarret Stoll, Center, Edmonton Oilers

Center is often a hard position to “break in” in fantasy terms – by this I mean that many fantasy leagues are set up so rosters have half the centers as wings, therefore the centers you usually have are the “stars” of the league – i.e. it’s easier to take chances on wingers since you have to fill more slots. Sometimes a “new” or hot/upcoming center is harder to spot.

Melville, Saskatchewan’s Jarret Stoll is rapidly stepping up into that category for the Oilers. Stoll has the classic scorer’s pedigree: in his final three years in the Western Hockey League for the Kootenay Ice, Stoll scored 109 goals in 180 games, culminating in two Memorial Cup championships, in 2000 and 2002 – he also starred in the World Juniors his final two seasons, winning bronze and silver medals for Canada. He was selected by Edmonton in the 2002 draft (after having been originally drafted by Calgary two years earlier, but failing to come to terms) and assigned to Hamilton in the American Hockey League where he put up decent but not overwhelming totals in his first professional season, notching 21 goals and 54 points. Finally he “graduated” to the big club in 2003-2004 where he put up modest totals of 10 goals and 21 points.

Expectations this season – his second in the NHL – were high but not overwhelming. Edmonton made no less than two high profile acquisitions last summer in defenseman Chris Pronger and center Michael Peca – perhaps this took the heat off of the other young Oiler centers as both Stoll and Shawn Horcoff have flourished. Stoll started off the season slowly, with only two goals in his first 14 games, but began to put up points on a regular basis starting in early November. He had 18 points in a terrific December which helped propel Edmonton up near the top of the most competitive division in the league. Overall his numbers suddenly look quite strong: in 42 games he has 14 goals and 26 assists for 40 points. His 143 shots are in the league top 20 and overwhelmingly tops on his club, showing aptitude to get into scoring situations. He’s getting time on the power play, netting 22 of his points in extra-strength situations.

Jarret Stoll is Edmonton’s leader in ice time for forwards this year and will be counted on to lead them into the playoffs. Stoll has only approached point-per-game status for the season in recent weeks and thus may still be available on the wire for a pickup – grab him if he is.

Ryan Getzlaf, Center, Anaheim Mighty Ducks

Another Saskatchewan native, Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf was a two-time World Junior participant and member of the soon-to-be-historic 2005 Canadian gold medal junior team, lining up with Jeff Carter (making noise with the Philadelphia Flyers this year) and Andrew Ladd (selected fourth overall by Carolina in 2004 - currently injured but has four goals in seven NHL games). He was drafted in the first round by Anaheim in 2003 as a potential team building-block center – a good mix of offence and grit. For example, last year, in his final junior season with the Calgary Hitmen, he scored 29 goals and logged 102 penalty minutes in only 51 regular season games, then added 17 more points in 12 playoff games.

He set up perhaps unfair expectations this preseason after scoring seven points in as many games – after scoring seven points in 16 regular season games he was sent down to Portland (Maine) of the American Hockey League to work on his game. Making the direct step from major junior to the National Hockey League is not an easy one and perhaps Anaheim thought Getzlaf would benefit from some relatively lesser competition and working his confidence back up. Seems there are some smart Ducks in Anaheim’s front office as Ryan simply tore up the AHL while he was there – in a mere 17 games he vaulted to fifth in league scoring with a fantastic 33 points, averaging a shade under two per game. Anaheim needs help in the goal scoring department (currently hovering around the bottom 10 in terms of goals per game) and recalled Getzlaf this past week – he responded by scoring a goal in his first game back against the Kings.

For the same reason that Stoll might be overlooked, Ryan Getzlaf is likely not ready to step into your fantasy lineup today – the overall center position is too deep. However, he has made it clear this year that the American Hockey League is beneath him – he’s ready for the NHL. If he can ride the confidence he undoubtedly gained in Portland into his latest foray back into the NHL, he could energize the Ducks into an exciting young squad. I wouldn’t currently recommend for shallow leagues but keep a close eye on him – for keeper leagues or deep leagues with bench room, with Getzlaf you could end up with a pleasant surprise over the final half of the season.

Andrej Meszaros, Defense, Ottawa Senators

As my SportsBlurb.com colleague John Franco notes this week, Slovakian native Andrej Meszaros has flown under the radar this year, both in the league overall and on a team otherwise chock full of megastars. I’d noted Meszaros three weeks ago as someone to keep an eye on but I feel he warrants a longer look. In a seemingly historic year for rookies, his is a name you don’t often hear but he stacks up against any of the bigger name rookies in terms of talent. He was the youngest player to play in the 2002 World Juniors in the Czech Republic, and created a buzz in Slovakia as their top NHL prospect which culminated in him being selected by Ottawa in the first round of the 2004 draft.

Thus far in his first pro season Meszaros hasn’t exactly lit up the scoresheet, but for a defenseman – and especially a rookie blueliner – his point totals are very respectable. To date he’s totaled 17 points, but has come on strong as the season has progressed – in December he scored nine points in 14 games. The good news is that he has long been projected by scouts to be an offensive defenseman, and I would expect the points to come in time for him. He recently went through a streak of 13 games in which he scored a point in 11 of those – I see this consistency as a great sign of his overall game.

Meszaros projects to be a top defenseman for years to come and has wisely worked on the defensive aspects of his game first, most notably reflected in his fantastic +26 rating thus far, which as of January 11^th is second in the league and tops among all defensemen. While I wouldn’t expect him to end up in the top 20 for defense scoring, I do expect him to improve on his point total in the second half as he becomes more confident in his abilities on the highest stage. Andrei Meszaros is absolutely recommended for all keeper leagues (and especially all combination stat leagues) as he could develop into one of the top 10 overall defensemen in the entire league by next season.

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

WJC I - B. Campbell, Ekman, Cammalleri

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

01/05/06

The Winter Olympics start late next month in Turin, Italy. Once again the hockey event will be played by professionals, which has happened since Nagano in 1998, and inevitably after the tournament begins, someone you know will complain. Perhaps even you will complain. People will complain about how they miss the “good old days” of the Olympics when they used to be for amateurs (except, you know, those countries that always used pros).

For all those pining for this brand of international hockey – it’s not gone. And in fact it happens every single year in a tournament lauded by those who watch it, attended in record numbers in certain hockey hotbeds, and is utterly and completely ignored in the United States. It’s the World Junior Championships, and is held every winter for two weeks after Christmas. It matches the very best players in the world under the age of 20 against each other in a short and exciting tournament for the considerable honor of national hockey pride. This year the tournament is being held in British Columbia, Canada, and was completely sold out eight months in advance.

Of course if you’re living in the good old USA, you have a better chance of seeing the world championship of mud-wrestling superstars playing poker than merely a tournament pitting the next crop of NHL superstars against each other. Even the usually great Center Ice package deigns to show merely a handful of games (USA games only, of course), which is better than nothing, but it’s not enough - this tournament gets a horrible treatment from the American sporting world. Go ahead and ask the next 20 people you talk to about the World Juniors and I’d be surprised if any of them have even heard of it.

Many times in history the World Juniors have been a platform for teenagers to shine on the world stage for the first time. The 1978 tournament in Montreal welcomed a young Wayne Gretzky for the first time, and it took him a total of one game to register his first hat trick. He ended up leading the entire tournament in scoring that year with 17 points in six games (Canada took the Bronze that year as the Soviet Union won their fifth consecutive tournament, on the way to seven straight). The 1988 tournament first all-star team consisted of forwards Alexander Mogilny, Sergei Fedorov, and Theoren Fleury. In 1993, Peter Forsberg gave the world a glimpse of what the Quebec Nordiques were soon to see when he obliterated the previous record and scored 31 points in seven games. Last year’s first all star team at the World Juniors included two players we have profiled here: Dion Phaneuf and Jeff Carter, as well as rookie sensation Alexander Ovechkin and Bruins regular Patrice Bergeron. Carter and Phaneuf made the first all star team two years in a row. And, in 2004, Sidney Crosby became the youngest player in World Juniors history to score a goal. At age 16. I once scored a killer goal against my friend Brian at age 16. In a parking lot. Using a tennis ball. The World Junior Championships are the equivalent of taking the very best college football players playing in this week’s bowl games, and forming an elite group of eight teams, then letting them play an elimination tournament. You think that wouldn’t interest a few people in this country?

This week’s spotlight shines on a few players who have used a successful World Junior Championships to put them on the hockey map, and are seeing some success in this NHL season…

Brian Campbell, Defense, Buffalo Sabres

I’ve held off on Campbell for a few weeks, as I had seen a lot of inconsistency in his play, but his continued production is now warranting a profile. Brian Campbell came out of the Ontario Hockey League known as an outstanding offensive threat from the blue line. Even though in his final season playing with the Ottawa 67s he won the “most outstanding defenseman” trophy for the league, there was never a doubt that his game was generating points – in 1999 he led his team with 87 points in 62 games, with 12 more in nine playoff games. His elite play earned him a spot on the Canadian World Junior team and in helping the Canadians to a silver medal finish in Winnipeg he earned first-team all star honors. Campbell’s final award that year was being named Canadian Hockey League player of the year.

Upon completion of his junior eligibility he joined the Sabres’ farm team in Rochester and rode the I-90 shuffle between Rochester and Buffalo for the better part of three years before becoming somewhat of a regular in the 2002-2003 season. Campbell’s two previous full seasons in Buffalo could hardly be considered successes, both with the team failing to make the playoffs and Campbell scoring a total of 30 points in 118 games.

This year started off as more of the same, with only two points in his first eight games. The turning point seems to be when coach Lindy Ruff revamped the Sabres’ power play and installed Campbell as a key component. They caught fire and since late November the Buffalo power play has consistently been in the top five in the league. Since the beginning of November, Campbell has notched 15 points on the power play and 21 overall in just 29 games. If you are in a points-only league, Brian Campbell is a worthy addition and one that may have slipped below the radar in many leagues due to his slow start. If you’re in a combination league, take this into consideration – Campbell will get the majority of his points on the power play and at this point is below-average at even strength. One major caveat with Campbell is his horrible -12 efficiency rating. Campbell is a relatively small defenseman – listed at less than six feet and 190 pounds – and often is caught in his own zone when faced with an aggressive forechecking team.

Nils Ekman, Winger, San Jose Sharks

Ekman was a key component of the 1996 silver medal Swedish team at the World Juniors in Boston. He was a decent scorer in the Finnish league, leading his team his first season with 24 goals in 50 games. Since coming to North America, however, Ekman has been notable in that he’s been the property of four different organizations in total, first being drafted by Calgary and finally two years ago being dealt to San Jose after two partial seasons with the Lightning. In 2003-2004 Ekman put together a surprisingly tremendous season – finally getting the chance to play a full slate of games, he potted 22 goals (including four shorthanded) and 55 points while adding a fantastic +30 rating, good for fifth in the league. Expectations were fairly high heading into this season for Ekman.

Yet from a statistical point of view, after two and a half months his season was a disaster: in 29 games he was a -2 with only 9 points; only once getting points in consecutive games and that being in early October. So after starting off the season so poorly, what’s given ol’ Nils the kick in the knickers to put him in the scoring column in four consecutive games? Playing with Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo on the top line – it may be as simple as that.

I wouldn’t expect huge total numbers from Ekman no matter what – he’ll be 30 this year which makes it not extremely likely for him to suddenly transform into an elite scorer. However, as we’ve pointed out many times in this column, your production is often tied dramatically to your linemates. If he continues to play with the Sharks’ two best players, he will get points, as he’s shown a scoring touch in the past. Ekman’s low season totals thus far will keep him off most teams’ radars so if he’s available he’d be worth grabbing now in hopes that he remains on that top line.

Mike Cammalleri, Center, Los Angeles Kings

Mike Cammalleri has shown a scoring touch at every level – a suburban Toronto native, he starred at the University of Michigan, scoring 52 goals in his final 70 games there. He missed time his final year to star in the World Juniors in Pardubice, Czech Republic where he became a(nother) silver medal winner. Cammalleri led the entire tournament in scoring in 2002 with 11 points in seven games for the snake-bitten Canadian program.

Cammalleri is suddenly emerging as a potential force in the NHL, and is likely another example of how last year’s lockout actually helped the development of a number of young players (see also Jason Spezza, Thomas Vanek, and Eric Staal among others). After parts of two seasons with the Kings, Cammalleri spent all of last year with the Manchester Monarchs, the Kings’ affiliate in the American Hockey League, where he led the league in goals with 46 and was second in points with 109.

This year – which will doubtless end up being his first full year in the NHL – he has already surpassed his previous career NHL point totals. As of Wednesday he has 15 goals and 29 points in 40 games, and has been extremely productive in the past few weeks with nine points in the past seven games; only once in that span has he failed to register a point. The Kings have shaken up their lines a bit and Cammalleri has found himself playing with a host of linemates, but most notably he’s had time with Pavol Demitra which immediately makes him more valuable. In his last game against Dallas he registered a season-high of just under 23 minutes of ice time, including starting the overtime period, proving that the coaching staff has great faith in him. Mike Cammalleri has a great future in the NHL and by season’s end may be considered one of the better young centers in the league.

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

T.H. - 1st Half Review

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

12/29/05

It’s almost the New Year, and in part due to the heavily compressed schedule we’re just about at the halfway point of the season. As is often said, ‘tis a good time of year to reflect so I’m about to come clean and reflect upon my recommendations thus far, both good and bad, and I’ll re-evaluate – are they still worthy of owning? Or have they turned into dogs? It’s time to revisit these selections one time only - I’ll list the players and their stats at the time of recommendation, and how they’ve done since. So let’s take a look back…back…back….

Ales Kotalik, winger, Buffalo Sabres.

Then: Eight games, three goals, two assists.

Now: 37 games, 17 goals, 28 points. Kotalik has since become the guy that Buffalo looks to on their power play – currently third in the league - and has ten power play goals, one behind the league leader. Recommended.

Dustin Brown, winger, Los Angeles Kings.

Then: Nine games, three goals, three assists, 15 penalty minutes.

Now: 38 games, seven goals, seven assists, 45 penalty minutes. Fantasy-wise Brown has been a bit of a disappointment – he went through an 11 game pointless streak. Even his penalty minute total is a bit deceptive as he had 15 in one game over a month ago. I still like Brown as a player and he has a great future but at this point he’s not worth much in any fantasy department. Not recommended.

Nathan Horton, center/winger, Florida Panthers.

Then: 13 games, seven goals, three assists.

Now: 28 games, 16 goals, 22points, +6. Horton missed a few games with an injured knee but he’s fast becoming the player the Panthers envisioned when drafting him third overall two years ago – he’s consistent (with a recent six game point streak) and I believe already the best player on the young Florida team – he might be a keeper within one season. Recommended.

Brian Gionta, winger, New Jersey Devils.

Then: 12 games, six goals, five assists.

Now: 36 games, 19 goals, 35 points. Gionta has been the brightest light for a flickering New Jersey squad this year, culminating in a US Olympic berth. He has become one of the most feared snipers in the league and also has ten power play goals to add to those bonus statistics. All around great fantasy player – recommended.

Martin Biron, goalie, Buffalo Sabres. T

hen: two games, one win.

Now: 15 wins, including a 13 game winning streak. I’d be lying if I said I knew he’d go on an absolute tear after Ryan Miller’s injury, but that’s exactly what he did in helping Buffalo shoot up the standings. He’s since again fallen behind Miller on the depth chart in Buffalo but he’s unquestionably drawing even more interest around the league. As I mentioned in my previous article, the Sabres aren’t going to keep three goalies (including Mika Noronen) all year - look for him to be dealt to a contender sometime in the next few months, and when this happens he’ll be that team’s number one goalie. Recommended.

Joffrey Lupul, center/wing, Anaheim Mighty Ducks.

Then: 16 games, eight goals, five assists.

Now: 35 games, 13 goals, 26 points. With four goals in his last four games, he’s showing his touch. While he hasn’t put up as many points as I would have hoped, he’s still on a decent pace – I would still recommend him for deeper leagues as a winger only.

Alexander Frolov, winger, Los Angeles Kings.

Then: 16 games, 14 points.

Now: 38 games, 13 goals, 36 points, +14. Frolov has since become one of the premier scorers in the league, residing in the top 25 for much of the past two months. Highly recommended (good luck getting him).

Dion Phaneuf, defense, Calgary Flames.

Then: 17 games, ten points, +1.

Now: 37 games, 21 points, +3. At this point a better real-life player than fantasy, which is saying a lot since he’s been in the top 25 for defense scoring most of the season. Phaneuf also has 17 power play points, which can be a huge addition if your league counts them. I did mention not to expect too many points from a rookie defenseman but Phaneuf is having a great rookie season and will become one of the top five defensemen in the entire league within two years. Recommended for deep and keeper leagues.

Jeff Carter, center, Philadelphia Flyers.

Then: 20 games, 12 points.

Now: 34 games, eight goals, 19 points. Clearly he hasn’t put up the points that he had in November, and he’s getting ice time usually in the 13 minute range. Carter is projecting to be a top power forward in the league within the next few years, and is an effective player this season, but he’s not there yet in terms of fantasy. Not recommended due to league depth at center.

Marek Svatos, winger, Colorado Avalanche.

Then: 19 games, ten goals, eight assists.

Now: 36 games, 20 goals, 34 points. Add in 14 power play points and Svatos has since become one of the premier rookies of this outstanding class, despite his -2 rating. Highly recommended as a premier player.

Chuck Kobasew, winger, Calgary Flames.

Then: 23 games, nine goals, three assists.

Now: 36 games, 11 goals, 16 points, -2. Only two points in his last eight games and he’s currently playing with Chris Simon and Matthew Lombardi. Whoa. Not recommended at this time.

Alex Steen, center/winger, Toronto Maple Leafs.

Then: 25 games, eight goals, eight assists, +4 (3^rd best on team)

Now: 32 games, 10 goals, 20 points, +5. Steen is still quietly contributing to an inconsistent Leafs squad. However he is currently nursing a thumb injury. I like Steen’s play and still recommend him in deeper leagues at wing only.

Kyle Wellwood, center, Toronto Maple Leafs.

Then: 24 games, 13 points, +7 (best on Leafs).

Now: 35 games, six goals, 19 points. His +9 is still best on the team, but his point production is not great. With only two shots in his last three games it’s hard to say Wellwood would be good for your team this year. Not recommended.

Brent Seabrook, defense, Chicago Blackhawks.

Then: 23 games, 13 points, +7 (2^nd on team), 18 penalty minutes.

Now: 33 games, 16 points, 30 penalty minutes, +8 which is tops on the team. Here’s another great rookie defenseman and this one on a pretty lame team. Seabrook is still a good pickup for combination leagues – recommended in deeper leagues.

Jonathan Cheehoo, winger, San Jose Sharks.

Then: 27 games, 19 points.

Now: 35 games, 18 goals, 28 points. Of late he seemingly hits it big or gets nothing - in his last seven games he’s scored multiple goals three times and five times this month has registered multi-point nights. I love Cheechoo’s play though, and highly recommend him in all leagues.

Brandon Bochenski, winger, Ottawa Senators.

Then: 13 games, 11 points.

Now: 18 games, six goals, 13 points, +7. Unfortunately, Bochenski separated his shoulder in a game against Toronto and will be out likely until February. Patrick Eaves has taken his place and is doing a great job on the second line. Not recommended.

Jason Pominville, winger, Buffalo Sabres.

Then: 6 games, 5 points.

Now: 14 games, three goals, eight points. Well, the good is that he has indeed stuck with the big club in Buffalo and is playing a solid role. The negative from a fantasy standpoint is that most of the time lately he’s been on the Sabres’ grinder line with Adam Mair and Paul Gaustad. He’s not going to get many points there but still keep a watch – if he’s promoted to one of their top lines due to more injuries (JP Dumont and Daniel Briere are out for extended periods) he has the skills to match anyone on the team and will increase his scoring. Recommended for deep leagues only.

Ah, okay - I can’t forget my bitter column – guys to completely avoid. Let’s see how they’re doing…

Nick Boynton, defense, Boston Bruins.

Then: 14 games, six points, 16 penalty minutes, -8.

Now: 23 games, seven points, 24 penalty minutes, -6. Boynton actually improved his play a bit since I gave him the business but he fractured his kneecap in early December and won’t be back for a few weeks. No reason to own him.

Sergei Fedorov, center, Columbus Blue Jackets.

Then: five games, one assist (all w/ Anaheim).

Now: 23 games, one goal, eight points. -3. The dream is over, Sergei. Enjoy your paycheck as it could be your last (ah, there’s always a renegade General Manager or two to hope to resurrect a once-great-career…maybe he’ll be on the Island in a few seasons…)

Corey Perry, winger, Anaheim Mighty Ducks.

Then: 13 games, one goal, five assists.

Now: 15 games, six points. I should include his Portland statistics as soon after I initially wrote about him he was sent down to the Pirates of the American Hockey League. This is where he belongs for a while – he’s obviously comfortable there, scoring 24 points in only 13 games. Perry should learn the finer aspects of pro hockey in the AHL and if he puts it together this highly regarded offensive talent could be a contributor in the NHL in a few years.

That’s my first half wrap-up. Next week we’re back to the normal recommendations. Happy New Year!

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

Arron Asham, Steve Begin, Ethan Moreau

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

12/22/05

Last week we took a unique look at combination stats – an attempt at answering the question of who might have the best combination of points and penalty minutes in the NHL this season. That seemed to go over well so I’d like to introduce another statistic to the formula that many leagues use – “plus-minus” (+/-). For the uninitiated, plus-minus is simple: if you’re on the ice when your team scores an even-strength or short-handed goal, you are awarded a “plus” – indicating that on some level you had the good hockey sense to contribute to your team’s goal - in theory. On the other hand, if you are on the ice when your team is scored against at even-strength or when your team is on the power-play, you’ll receive a “minus.” Meaning you stink.

OK, that’s obviously facetious and simplistic. The idea is to eventually paint an overall picture of a player’s contributions to the team’s success in a different way than mere goals and assists.

As has been noted by many, the plus-minus stat is decent when comparing between players on one team but since it is incredibly team-dependent, it’s a bit disingenuous to compare players on drastically different teams like, for example, Ottawa and Pittsburgh. Actually, Dany Heatley would be a good example: in each of his last two seasons he was a -8 for Atlanta, this year he’s already a fantastic +25. While I’m willing to accept that his game has improved, I’m much more willing to accept that dramatic and sudden difference as a function of his vastly improved teammates.

Historical stats for plus-minus are spotty at best, but the records are fun to examine: on the plus side, the great Bobby Orr logged an unbelievable +124 in 1970-71. Nobody will argue against Orr being one of the sport’s all time greats, but that total was obviously supplemented by his awesome team that year - the Bruins scored 399 goals in total, led by Phil Esposito and his then-record 76 goals. On the negative side of the ledger, in the 1974-75 season the Washington Capitals’ Bill Mikkelson grossed an unreal -82! In fairness, that team was historically awful – I still recall a 14-2 drubbing the Buffalo Sabres put on them around Christmas time that year – one of 67 losses for the Caps in their inaugural season.

In the end, we’re not here to debate the merits of the stat – it is what it is, and it’s used in a lot of expanded fantasy leagues. Finding who has the best +/- is easy, obviously – that would be everyone playing for Ottawa. Five of the top seven are Senators. But who are some of the unsung players that are contributing in the +/- realm and also putting up traditional points? Ah – once again we turn to the trusty spreadsheet (all stats as of Tuesday afternoon, December 20^th) – many multiple-stat leagues simply use a player’s +/- total, so I’ve created a few queries that take that value. If we simply combine points and +/-, the top of the list isn’t surprising – Ottawa’s “Pizza Line” of Heatley, Daniel Alfredsson, and Jason Spezza take up the top three spots. But the true overall combination would be if we re-introduce penalty minutes to the mix…let’s take a close look just a little ways down the list to find some real sleepers that at first glance you may have ignored, but are putting up good combo numbers:

Arron Asham, Right Wing, New York Islanders

Islanders’ winger Arron Asham is probably flying under the radar of a lot of leagues. Asham came out of Red Deer in the Western Hockey League as a big-time scorer – in his last two seasons he averaged 44 goals and over 1.4 points per game. He also averaged 150 penalty minutes over his four seasons with the Rebels. After being drafted in the third round by Montreal in 1996 he spent parts of a few seasons with Montreal, mostly bouncing up and down between the Canadiens and the American Hockey League. Only after being dealt to the Islanders in 2002 was he given a bigger shot, finally playing a full season in the NHL. Yet his high point total for a season is only 34, so before this year he clearly has not capitalized on what talents he obviously has.

This season Asham has 20 points in 31 games, not a bad total but not enough to really stick out. In combination leagues, however, Asham should be considered an elite player. He is one of relatively few plus-players on the Islanders team, at a +5. Add in his 68 penalty minutes and the combination puts Asham at 21^st in the league. Asham has been playing with Alexei Yashin and Miroslav Satan, two well-known names to be sure - good offensive talent there, yet also very notorious for disappearing in crucial situations. At any rate, that’s what passes for the Islanders’ top line these days so if they get any opportunities, Asham will likely cash in and he has of late, scoring five points in his last four games.

Steve Begin, Center, Montreal Canadiens

First of all, let’s not kid ourselves – if you’re in a straight points league, Steve Begin is never going to be your guy. As a junior in the always offensive-minded Quebec Junior League, his high in points was 46 – not terrible but Mario Lemieux wasn’t exactly worried about his record. Scoring goals isn’t Begin’s game; he’s an energy-player – a third line player who has a role of playing tight defense and occasionally chipping in on the offensive end. He has also become one of Montreal’s top face-off men.

Yet if you’re in a combination league there are some good numbers associated with Begin - thus far this season in 31 games he’s tallied 12 points and is a +3. His 79 penalty minutes are what boosts him to a strong 28^th in the league on our combined list. He has recently lined up with Pierre Dagenais and Michael Ryder; lining up with Ryder might help Begin get a few extra points. Begin is a fan and coaching favorite and will continue to get ice time for the Habs.

Ethan Moreau, Left Wing, Edmonton Oilers

At 34^th in the league comes another surprise - Oilers winger Ethan Moreau. Moreau was a high draft pick by Chicago in 1994 (14^th overall) after a big season in junior with 44 goals – he scored 82 goals in his final 121 games in the Ontario Hockey League. He never retained the scoring touch once he turned pro; being mostly used in a defensive forward or checking role. He’s carved out a pretty decent if unspectacular career for himself, mostly with the Oilers over the past six or so years. This year he’s actually on pace to beat his career high in points (32) - in 34 games this year he’s scored 19 points, and is a +8 with 51 penalty minutes. He is also tied for the league lead in shorthanded goals with three.

The Oilers have a strong team this year, and are right in the mix of the most competitive division in the league – Moreau is a crucial element on Edmonton’s checking line and I expect him to continue to get quality ice time in all crucial situations. Don’t count on him for more than 40 points overall, but the combination of his occasional offensive contributions combined with his excellent defensive play (and time in the box) will make him a solid depth player in your combined league.

Here are a few defensive quick shots - non-household names to file away in the “quality depth” category:

-Chicago’s Jaroslav Spacek - currently with 19 points and 52 penalty minutes, and is a +6.

-Ruslan Salei of Anaheim is another all-around sleeper with 12 points, 54 penalty minutes, and a team-high +12 rating.

-Andrei Meszaros of Ottawa has a league-high +25 as of December 21^st, and add 15 points with 22 penalty minutes and you’ve got one of the better defenseman in the league.

-I’d also like to make note of Philadelphia defenseman Joni Pitkanen – he was having a terrific season until he tore his abdominal muscle; with 23 points in 25 games, a +18 and 42 penalty minutes, he is still 16^th in the entire league (third highest defenseman) in our combination formula. Pitkanen is expected to be out until at least mid-January. The second-year player has nearly bested his rookie point total (27) already and if you have him on IR don’t let him go – he’ll be one of the Flyers’ most valuable players for the second half of the season.

That’s it for this week – next week we’ll do a little midseason fantasy review, with some surprises and disappointments at the season halfway point. I’ll go over my recommendations thus far this year and I’ll let you know if I feel if they’re still worth picking up (or if you should have ignored me all along).

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

Power Forwards

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

12/15/05

This week we’re taking the gloves off – this column was on its way to qualifying for the Lady Byng so I’m bringing a little feistiness to the table – we’re talking about guys who combine the offensive production with the nastiness – presenting the power forward.

The concept of the power forward in hockey has always been around, if not necessarily named that way. Back in the six-team era (and let’s please refrain from calling it the “original six” since only after 25 years of the NHL were those the teams comprising the league) toughness was necessary as teams would play each other 14 times per season – nearly insuring personal battles every time players stepped on the ice. There wasn’t room for a lot of finesse in those days.

While there’s no definitive way to pinpoint it, many point to the 1972 Summit Series – a now-legendary exhibition of eight games between the Soviet Union and Canada - as a pivotal time in the development of hockey in North America. The Russians played a style of hockey rarely seen in Canada – rather than using aggression and brute strength to retain the puck or manhandle the opponent to get it back, the Russians rarely if ever relied on body contact – their advanced passing and skating techniques were years beyond what was being seen and taught in Canada and the United States – for the first four games the Russians simply blew away the talented Canadian squad; the Canadians had expected to win at least seven of the games – after falling behind with only one win and one tie in the first five games Canada came back to dramatically win the final three games in Russia, in part by finally adapting to the fast-paced Russian attack but also combining that with a ruthless physical style…(in particular see Bobby Clarke’s game six slash of Russian superstar Valeri Kharlamov…).

The modern era of hockey has since often seen opposing schools of thought when it comes to putting together a hockey club, and the tide has ebbed and flowed. Soon after the ’72 series in Canada and Russia, the Philadelphia Flyers became known as the Broad Street Bullies for their outrageous intimidation tactics on the ice as they won two straight Cups. Yet immediately following their run the Montreal Canadiens assembled possibly the most skilled NHL team in history en route to four straight Cups of their own. The New York Islanders then went to five straight finals utilizing a mix of the two styles.

For the fans, however, there has always been the appeal of the “Gordie Howe hat trick:” a goal, an assist, and a fight. Longtime fan favorites can often be lumped into one of two categories: the prolific scorer, along the lines of Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Guy Lafleur, Gil Perreault or the power forward – the guy who can drop the gloves just as easily as dropping a game-winner – Cam Neely, Brendan Shanahan, Wendel Clark…even Tiger Williams!

Especially since the widespread popularity of the internet and ease of setting up hockey pools, many pools have expanded beyond the traditional “goals plus assists” methodology and used stats like penalty minutes.

I’m going to do something a little different this week – rather than my usual spotlighting of two or three players who I think warrant immediate attention in the fantasy hockey world due to their offensive skills, I’m going to take a more general look at some unheralded players “contributing” at both points and penalty minutes. Since there are so many varieties of multiple-stat leagues – rotisserie style, points, head-to-head – there’s no great way to analyze for everyone so I’ve compiled some “made up” stats, if you will, to assist those of us in multiple-category leagues.

I’ve compiled a spreadsheet of every player who’s registered a point this year, statistics through Monday the 12^th (that’s 644 players if you care). One league I’m in tallies up points and gives half a point for penalty minutes, so I ran a query on those players who have played at least 20 games this year, and I did the math (well, Excel did the math) – here’s your top 10:

Sean Avery	LOS	70
Marc Savard	ATL	65
Jaromir Jagr	NYR	63
Bryan McCabe	TOR	59
Dany Heatley	OTT	56
Brenden Morrow	DAL	55.5
Zdeno Chara	OTT	55
Ilya Kovalchuk	ATL	55
Ladislav Nagy	PHO	53
Brendan Shanahan	DET	52

Some names aren’t too surprising due mostly to gaudy offensive numbers but holy cow - look who’s at number one: your Rene Levesque award winner, Sean Avery of the Los Angeles Kings. In 30 games he’s tallied a respectable 16 points but his 108 penalty minutes gives him a whopping 70 points in our system. Avery has made himself notorious with his mouth but he’s only hurt himself – Avery has skill. In his four years in the Ontario Hockey League he totaled 253 points in 221 games, including 84 his final year. Of course he “complimented” the 84 that year with 215 penalty minutes. He’s been typecast in more of the enforcer role since turning pro, racking up major penalty totals at every stop. Thus far he’s a great pick if you’re tallying those minutes, and playing on a good offensive team, he’ll get his points. I never thought I’d be putting Marc Savard on a list like this but he is really finding a home offensively in Atlanta with 42 points so far. With adding in the 46 penalty minutes and you should have him high on your list of potential acquisitions. I’d offer one caveat: Savard could be great trade bait this year, as Atlanta is struggling and I would actually think his point production would most likely drop on another squad, being away from offensive wizards Ilya Kovalchuk and Marian Hossa - tread warily, and if he’s on your team, you might be able to sell him high.

Let’s move away from the forwards for a minute and talk defense– the Leafs’ Bryan McCabe has certainly stepped up to have a career year thus far, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a better overall fantasy option on defense than Ottawa’s Zdeno Chara. The 12-foot tall Chara has put up decent numbers with the Senators over the past few seasons (…and for my cheap-shot of the week, hey, hey! another nice trade by Mike Milbury) and is continuing to impress this year with 16 points in 27 games. He’s got 78 penalty minutes and on top of all that he’s a +17. The next defenseman on our list comes in at number 16 with the Islanders’ Alex Zhitnik. He’s got 22 points in 29 games and 56 penalty minutes. OK, so his overall play has been getting mixed reviews on the Island, but he’ll definitely help your fantasy team (except for that -1).

A few other players way up on the list that may have been floating below the radar are Brendan Morrow of Dallas and Chris Neil of the Ottawa Senators. Morrow has taken the top left wing slot for the Stars playing alongside Jason Arnott and Bill Guerin. Morrow peaked last season with 49 points but is on pace to better that this year with 23 points in just 27 games and 65 penalty minutes. Chris Neil has been one of the year’s bigger overall surprises actually – his rookie year of 2001-2002 proved to be his biggest in terms of points with 17 (also logging 231 penalty minutes). He has already matched that this year in only 25 games. He hasn’t exactly shied away from his usual collection of penalty minutes either, with 63. His minutes have generally increased this year, peaking Monday night at over 17 against the Avalanche.

Finally, if we look at the numbers on a per-game basis, Sean Avery still comes out on top. Peter Forsberg is second, due to his 41 points in 22 games, but the next three spots are taken by Savard, Morrow, and Chara. It’s definitely more difficult to gauge players when you’re dealing with multiple categories, as opposed to merely points, so outside of the obvious superstars it may be possible for you to pry some of these less-heralded players loose from other teams.

That’s it for this week – let me know what you think - your comments and suggestions are always welcome.

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

Jonathan Cheechoo, Brandon Bochenski, Jason Pominville

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

12/08/05

Fully two months into the season, it gets more and more difficult to find those diamonds in the rough; players who you are eager to pick up that other owners haven’t noticed yet. At this point you have to look beyond the “top 20” points lists and analyze situations to look for breakout players.

What are some signs that a player might suddenly increase their production? Players “break out” for many different reasons. Some come into the league as baby-faced rookies, take their lumps for a while, then hopefully by their third or fourth year they harness their talent and “put it all together.” Chris Pronger would be one example; a second overall draft pick by Hartford in 1993, he struggled early in his career. After a trade to St. Louis (for Brendan Shanahan) he blossomed and became one of the premier players in the league for the rest of the decade.

A second reason for a breakout would be due to a teammate or organizational injury, giving a young player an otherwise unscheduled opportunity to make an impact. In the fall of 1993, Buffalo goalie Grant Fuhr went down with a knee injury which forced unproven Dominik Hasek to take over, in which all he did was begin an historic career which will lead him to the Hall of Fame (alongside Fuhr).

At any stage of their careers, players who are placed into new roles – either due to being dealt to a more talented team or simply finding chemistry with new linemates - can also find themselves suddenly thrust into the limelight. John LeClair was a serviceable winger for the Montreal Canadiens in the early 90s, even chipping in some crucial overtime goals in Montreal’s last Cup year of 1993, but it wasn’t until he was shipped to Philadelphia and united with Eric Lindros and the “Legion of Doom” line (along with Mikael Renberg) that he broke out – in his case, nearly immediately. He went from a total of 46 goals in three years in Montreal to three straight 50+ goal seasons and elite status.

Of course, you could always garner international attention entering the league as a cleanly-shorn rookie, only to develop a world-class mullet after a decade and attract the attention of Albertan centenarians. We’ll consider that category Ryan Smyth’s alone.

This week I’m looking at a few players in suddenly new situations for them – two players who have benefited from injuries within their organizations and were thus recalled from the American Hockey League, and one who should benefit from a major acquisition by his team…

Jonathan Cheechoo, Right Wing, San Jose Sharks

The obvious big news around the NHL this past week was the trade of Bruins’ captain Joe Thornton to the San Jose Sharks. I always try to reside in the “let’s see how this plays out” camp for major deals and despite the hue and cry from Bruins fans everywhere, I think this trade could benefit them in myriad ways. That’s for another column, however, as I think this will definitely benefit the Sharks, including a number of their players on a production basis. With San Jose’s top two centers now being Thornton and Patrick Marleau, both currently residing comfortably within the top 20 scorers in the league, they suddenly have a good amount of offense to go around, which makes it tougher for opponents to key on only one line.

I really like the opportunity this affords winger Jonathan Cheechoo, a gifted scorer who did have 28 goals last season but may have been under many owners’ radars since he only totaled 47 points. Since acquiring Joe Thornton as a teammate, Cheechoo has been fortunate enough to be wedded to Joe Thornton on every shift (along with cousin Scott Thornton on the far wing) – this bodes very well for Cheechoo’s future performance, and seeing as the Sharks have won each of the three games since Joe’s arrival the likelihood of them staying together – at least for the immediate future – I would claim is pretty strong.

Cheechoo was a great goal-scorer in juniors – averaging 37 goals per season over his three years with the Belleville Bulls, and leading them to the OHL championship in his second year – but he’s never been a flashy speed-burner. Reminds me a little of the description of Joe Thornton – one of the knocks on Thornton in Boston was that he too-often looked lackadaisical. I think he was unfairly slotted in some circles and he simply is what he is – a very good offensive forward yet not always suited for end-to-end rushes - and I think he and Cheechoo should complement each other well. Cheechoo has a great shot and offensive strength that could cause fits for opposing teams. Cheechoo already has decent numbers this year, with 19 points in 27 games but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him increase his production immediately and dramatically with his new all-star linemate. At worst I would figure Cheechoo would spend the rest of the year either on Thornton’s or Marleau’s wing, so expect to see Jonathan Cheechoo rising up the scoring leaders soon.

Brandon Bochenski, Right Wing, Ottawa Senators

Brandon Bochenski initially caught a lot of people’s attention in the preseason, playing on a line with Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley and scoring six goals. However, once the regular season rolled around Bochenski got cold, potting just one goal in the first ten games before being sent back down to Binghamton of the American Hockey League. Fantasy owners everywhere were discarding Bochenski, relegating him to the where-are-they-now file faster than Sean Avery makes ignorant comments.

Bochenski’s been a big goal scorer for some good clubs in his young career – for perennial NCAA powerhouse North Dakota he finished his last two seasons with 62 and 60 points, the last season in 2004 finishing second in the nation in scoring. Last year he scored 34 goals while spending the entire year in Binghamton and although he doubtless was not excited about being sent back down from Ottawa in late-October, he nevertheless regained his scoring touch with 17 points in 14 games while awaiting another chance.

That chance came relatively quickly – at the beginning of December. Martin Havlat - yet another (ho-hum) super-skilled forward for the Sens - dislocated his shoulder and Brandon got the recall from the AHL to replace Havlat temporarily. He’s done a great job thus far: in his three games back Bochenski has six points, including a hattrick last time out against Florida.

In what may have been bad luck for the Senators looks as though it has turned out to be good luck for Bochenski. As of mid-week, Havlat’s diagnosis has taken a turn for the worse as he will miss significant time and in a worst-case-scenario he’ll need surgery and could miss the entire season. If that happens, of course it isn’t a guarantee for Bochenski to remain in Ottawa but it certainly keeps the door open for someone, and Bochenski is there right now, and making (positive) noise.

Bochenski has been lined up with Bryan Smolinski and Vaclav Varada, not exactly names that should excite you offensively. So keep a cautious but steady eye on Bochenski – as I mentioned, he will likely get his chances to remain in Ottawa for a while with Havlat’s injury and if he puts more quality games together he will hopefully get more time on the power play (fairly negligible since his latest call-up). If that happens be sure to snap him up as even a doorstop playing on the Senators’ power play could put up points this year.

Jason Pominville, Winger, Buffalo Sabres

This is a deep recommendation – I’ll cut right to the chase and mention that as of this Wednesday Jason Pominville has only been up with the big club for six games this year, and has a grand total of seven games played in his entire NHL career. Yet I believe Pominville stands a good chance of sticking and scoring points with Buffalo.

For someone with such an impressive scoring resume it has taken a long time to make it to the show. In the past, size (listed at 186 pounds this year) has been the impediment between Pominville and a legitimate chance in the NHL. He averaged 117 points over his last two seasons in the Quebec Major Junior League, and then 32 goals over his first two full seasons in the AHL with Rochester. This season he had 19 goals in only 18 games with the Amerks – clearly this is a player who has been ready for the next step.

Much like Bochenski in Ottawa, injuries played a part in Pominville’s recent recall to the big club. Buffalo recently lost Daniel Briere and JP Dumont to injuries, and for what looks to be a significant amount of time (Dumont for at least three months). Pominville got the recall two weeks ago, and in his first game up against Washington he got a good amount of ice time, logging over 15 minutes and getting his first NHL goal on a beautiful setup from Maxim Afinogenov.

Against Colorado last Sunday night he played with Tim Connolly and Ales Kotalik, currently two of Buffalo’s top three scorers. Pominville played nearly 17 minutes and recorded a goal and assist in a big win over the Avalanche.

Positives to Pominville would be that he would seem to be a good fit for the system the Buffalo Sabres play, which is a high-tempo emphasis on speed. Thus far he has fit in well; notching four shots in each of the past two games and logging more ice time each game. He has a big shot and has been used on the point on Buffalo’s power play, currently ranked fourth in the league. At his best, Pominville is a dynamic offensive talent and could pile up points in the NHL if given the chance.

One of the problems with owning a Buffalo forward isn’t that the team doesn’t score – it’s that they spread out their scoring. They’ve had a quite successful season to date and much of the credit goes to the fact that although they don’t have the one dominating line, they can roll out four lines that can score. Another fact to keep an eye on is that he’s already been sent down to the AHL once this year and according to the current collective bargaining agreement he’ll have to clear waivers if he plays in ten or more regular season games. What that basically means is that if Pominville reaches ten games played, the Sabres would have to risk putting him on waivers to send him back down to Rochester, in which case another team could claim him.

Watch Buffalo and Pominville in particular over the next week or two – Daniel Briere is expected to return within a few weeks and if Pominville stays with the club through his return, I would recommend Pominville in deep leagues as he could surprise you with some points through the winter.

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.

Alex Steen, Kyle Wellwood, Brent Seabrook

Treasure Hunting, the Hockey Edition

By Rob Aquino

12/01/05

We’ve reached the quarter pole of the season and teams are starting to find out their identities – teams like Los Angeles, New York, and Carolina are all realizing to their surprise that they are all in first place and serious playoff contenders, whereas teams with higher hopes like Boston and Columbus are wondering when it might be time to cut bait and take a completely new direction. Teams are changing or solidifying their lineups – Phoenix for example has shed a good deal of their initial lineup and are now more or less set for the time being as they’ve seen their fortunes increase greatly over the last month.

In a fantasy hockey sense, this is important in that we may be seeing some players getting more opportunities over the next few months that they may not have received through the first two months of the season. As I’ve been noting for the past few weeks, the raw fantasy numbers alone do not and can not tell the story as to whether a player is a worthy investment, or at least someone you should be looking at. Ice-time is obviously the most important supplemental stat but situational statistics such as power play time and linemates are also going to contribute (or not) to a player’s bottom line. Be on the lookout for players who are getting longer shifts, more power play opportunities.

After finishing last week’s column which focused (mostly) on rookies, I decided that one column wasn’t going to be nearly enough. As opposed to most of the past decade where the rookie “race” has usually boiled down to two or three at most, this season is seeing a nearly unprecedented number of rookies having an impact and I thought it would be interesting to take a closer look at a few more this week; some who have been seeing quality ice time all season and some who are true long shots but through a bit of luck might be ready to contribute this year.

We’re sticking with three players from old Norris division teams - first we’ll look at a pair of Leafs and then a top Blackhawk prospect making an impact already.

Alex Steen, Center/Wing, Toronto Maple Leafs

The last few seasons have seen the Toronto Maple Leafs trying to succeed by taking on high-priced veterans; mostly so-called “name” players like Ed Belfour, Joe Nieuwendyk, Owen Nolan, Alexander Mogilny, etc. etc. This has obviously led to some measure of success – averaging a very good 98 points over the past six seasons. Yet Leafs fans – or more realistically Leafs-haters (read: the roughly 27 million Canadians not living in Metro Toronto…) – are more apt to cite the number 1967 instead, referring to the last season the Leafs won the Cup (also the last time they even made it as far as the finals). They’ve since jettisoned some of the vets and replaced them with others (e.g. Eric Lindros, Jason Allison).

Some have made the argument that the old guys helped them put together excellent regular seasons but didn’t have the energy to take them through the grueling playoffs. That seems a bit simplistic to me, but I do agree that the Leafs have needed an influx of youth and this season they are starting to display a bit of their farm talent.

Alex Steen was a first round selection in 2002 and the son of former NHL standout Thomas Steen. Steen the younger has increasingly seen more responsibility as this season has gone on to where he now plays regularly over 18 minutes per game, and occasionally more than 20.

The coaching staff has been showing a lot of confidence in Steen in both starting him the last few games as well as having him on the ice late in the game in close situations. Last Monday at Florida in a 2-1 victory, after the Leafs pulled ahead midway in the third period, Steen was awarded with five shifts the rest of the way, a sure sign that his two-way play is valued by the Leafs’ staff.

All the accolades in the world are wonderful but in and of themselves don’t win you fantasy leagues…so what are his numbers like? In 25 games this year he has 16 points, notching eight goals and assists each. He is a +4 which is good for third best on the team. He’s clearly getting his opportunities as he has 65 shots, good for third on the team.

On the other hand, Alex doesn’t really have the greatest offensive history; or maybe more accurately we really don’t know how we should project his offensive capabilities. He played the last four years professionally in the Swedish Elite League and peaked at 24 points in 48 games two years ago – last year he had 17 in 50 games. However, the Elite league was a veteran league – for instance, among his teammates last year were Peter Forsberg, Markus Naslund, Henrik and Daniel Sedin so he may have been down the list in terms of ice time.

The bottom line on Steen is this: he is now being treated not much differently than any of the more esteemed vets on the Leafs’ squad which is an honor. He’s on the power-play, killing penalties, and getting as many shifts as any other. Of late (most of the last week) he’s been on a line with Mats Sundin and Kyle Wellwood (see below). He’s not flashy but enjoyable to watch play as it seems that he has the skills to last in this league for years to come. Judging by all these facts I expect Steen to put up decent but not great numbers – in other words, someone to have on the bench to keep an eye on, and especially if your league takes +/- into account. Also note whether he qualifies as winger in your league – as center he’s less valuable.

Kyle Wellwood, Center, Toronto Maple Leafs

Kyle Wellwood is another of Toronto’s talented young rookies, and is of a different mold than Steen. Wellwood is flashier and has unquestionably more offensive pedigree, starring for four years in the Ontario Hockey League for Belleville and Windsor. Twice he tallied at least 100 points including leading the OHL in only his second year with Belleville with 118 points. He was actually traded in a very big OHL deal to Windsor for Jason Spezza and was an offensive force for the Spitfires, scoring 100 points and 41 goals in only 57 games in his last year there.

Wellwood has had the scoring touch at every level but if he has a knock against him, it is his tendency to be one-dimensional. Not selfish, per se, but he’s not great defensively and is almost anti-contact. Here’s a stat I find amazing: in 106 games with Windsor (including playoffs) he had zero penalty minutes. Zero. In one fantasy league I was in at the time it drove a friend of mine nuts as we gave points for penalty minutes – it was a running joke as to whether Wellwood would get in the box at all his final year, which he obviously didn’t.

If your league doesn’t count penalty minutes, why would you care? No penalties will keep him out of the box and on the ice, – theoretically. Often lack of penalty minutes will translate – rightly or wrongly – into lack of aggression to a coaching staff. As a result, this year Wellwood has been seeing action in every game, but hardly in every situation.

Wellwood had been playing mostly on the Leafs’ fourth line, but the tough part about analyzing the Leafs right now is the aforementioned line juggling by Quinn. Beginning last Saturday against Montreal, he has been getting a spot shift here and there on the first line with Mats Sundin and fellow rookie Alex Steen. The two games after that – in Florida and in Tampa – he has also gotten the start. These last few games have followed a pattern – starting each period on that top line, then getting only a few shifts per period afterwards. On the year he’s averaging around 11:20 per game, being used mostly in even-strength situations and not much in the later parts of the third period.

Don’t interpret this as signs that the team isn’t happy with him – indications that he’ll stay in the lineup are obvious: he keeps getting shots at playing with captain Sundin and two-way rookie Steen, plus most impressively his plus-minus is a +7, which is tops on the team in limited ice time. So how bad could his defense really be?

The outlook on Wellwood is this: Kyle is highly skilled offensively, in my opinion far more so than Steen. They just play a different game and right now in the season with the Leafs lineup they are more often in need of a two-way player than an offensive sparkplug in game situations. Wellwood probably isn’t valuable at this particular moment in a fantasy aspect for you but you have to watch the Leafs’ moves over the coming weeks – Jason Allison has been moaning about his ice time and role (he’s often on the fourth line). If Allison gets dealt to another team, I would expect Wellwood to step up and get solid time on the top three lines where he would be of definite fantasy value. Wellwood has 13 points in 24 games this year on very limited ice time. With more minutes and his skill, he would definitely put up points that would make him valuable.

Brent Seabrook, Defense, Chicago Blackhawks

Breaking into the NHL at defense is more difficult than offence for many reasons, among which would be the inability to get away with “floating” – if you play bad defense, you’ll be exposed immediately as opposed to a forward merely going through a game without taking a shot. This season, Calgary’s Dion Phaneuf (see the 11/10 hockey Treasure Hunting article for his profile) is thus far the clear front runner for rookie defensemen but Chicago’s Brent Seabrook is making a nice impression himself.

Seabrook has been a highly touted defensive prospect for a few years after having been selected 14^th overall by Chicago in the 2003 draft out of Lethbridge in the Western Hockey League. He’s been projected to be both a talented two-way defenseman and a “leader” – to me always a comical (not to mention unnecessarily pressure-packed) label to throw at a 17 year old kid.

As for numbers, he put up solid ones in the WHL, topping off at 54 points and 107 penalty minutes in 63 games his final season which was only last year. It was a little surprising to me to see him make the jump this year to the big club in Chicago – Chicago’s rather obvious lack of success in recent years probably played a big part in him getting a chance this year. Why not spend the time developing one of your top prospects, right? The risk here is that by expecting him to develop while in the NHL they ran the risk of putting him in a situation over his head.

However, Chicago has clearly made the right decision, thus far at least. He’s already a +7 which is good for second on the entire team. He’s fifth in team scoring with 13 points in his first 23 games (while adding 18 minutes in penalties) – good totals for any defenseman and actually second in the league as far as rookie defensemen (to Phaneuf).

Seabrook has been one of the Hawks starting defensemen of late, and getting special teams play as well. Chicago is still a pretty bad team but is hopefully trying to turn things around with a veteran netminder (Nik Khabibulin) and a core of young talent (Mark Bell, Tyler Arnason, Kyle Calder, fellow rookie standout Pavel Vorobiev). Based on his excellent start, Brent Seabrook will get his chances all year and although I expect his output to likely ebb and flow throughout his first NHL season, he has shown the poise necessary to succeed in this league. He would be a fine pickup for the back end of your defensive corps.

Feedback can be sent to robaquino@sportsblurb.com.